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Dynamic valuation of insurance cash flows subject to capital requirements
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5610-1079
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Insurance companies are required by regulation to be in possession of liquid assets that ensure that they can meet their obligations to policyholders with high probability. The amount is usually determined by an actuarial valuation, with for instance the Solvency II regulatory framework providing standard formulae. In this thesis we investigate a valuation procedure where the value of a liability cash flow is determined via a backwards recursive relationship, meaning that the value at time t depends on the value at time t+1. The value corresponds to an amount required to be able to raise capital from an external capital provider with limited liability, in order to meet capital requirements imposed by a regulating body. 

Paper I describes the valuation philosophy that will more or less be shared by all papers in the thesis. It establishes a recursive relationship given via a mapping, that satisfy the properties of a dynamic monetary utility function. Conditions are given where finite p:th moments are preserved in the recursion and a link to the well known subject of dynamic monetary risk measures and utility functions is established. The structure of the recursion is used to find closed-form values for certain stochastic processes, most importantly in the case where we have jointly Gaussian cash flows.

Paper II explores the valuation procedure in the presence of a risk-neutral probability measure, which correctly prices the financial instruments that are priced by the financial market but is also assumed to express the risk aversion toward non-hedgeable insurance risk of the capital provider. We show that the valuation procedure is equivalent to an optimal stopping problem, giving us an alternative way to define the valuation procedure. We reproduce many of the structural results from Paper I under the assumed conditions. We also consider the choice of replicating portfolio under different criteria, especially the criterion of minimizing the need for external capital.

Paper III considers the discrete-time valuation from paper I, but where the valuation times form an arbitrary partition of the time interval on which the runoff of the liability occurs. We investigate the properties of the value as the mesh of the partition goes to zero. We define a "continuous-time value" of a liability cash flow and find closed form expressions and some structural results for classes of stochastic processes including Lévy processes and Itô diffusions.

Paper IV tackles the numerical difficulties of performing the recursive valuation procedure where a closed-form value cannot be found. Under Markovian assumptions, a so-called least-squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm is investigated, a method that was developed to tackle optimal stopping problems. We show some overarching consistency results for the LSM algorithm in the general setting of dynamic monetary utility functions and also explore numeric performance for some example models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University , 2021. , p. 31
Keywords [en]
Valuation, Risk measures
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-192125ISBN: 978-91-7911-484-8 (print)ISBN: 978-91-7911-485-5 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-192125DiVA, id: diva2:1543856
Public defence
2021-05-28, online via Zoom, public link is available at the department website, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2021-05-05 Created: 2021-04-13 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Insurance valuation: A computable multi-period cost-of-capital approach
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Insurance valuation: A computable multi-period cost-of-capital approach
2017 (English)In: Insurance, Mathematics & Economics, ISSN 0167-6687, E-ISSN 1873-5959, Vol. 72, p. 250-264Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present an approach to market-consistent multi-period valuation of insurance liability cash flows based on a two-stage valuation procedure. First, a portfolio of traded financial instrument aimed at replicating the liability cash flow is fixed. Then the residual cash flow is managed by repeated one-period replication using only cash funds. The latter part takes capital requirements and costs into account, as well as limited liability and risk averseness of capital providers. The cost-of-capital margin is the value of the residual cash flow. We set up a general framework for the cost-of-capital margin and relate it to dynamic risk measurement. Moreover, we present explicit formulas and properties of the cost-of-capital margin under further assumptions on the model for the liability cash flow and on the conditional risk measures and utility functions. Finally, we highlight computational aspects of the cost-of-capital margin, and related quantities, in terms of an example from life insurance.

Keywords
Valuation of insurance liabilities, Multi-period valuation, Market-consistent valuation, Cost of capital, Risk margin, Dynamic risk measurement
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-140138 (URN)10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.12.002 (DOI)000393534100020 ()
Available from: 2017-02-28 Created: 2017-02-28 Last updated: 2022-02-28Bibliographically approved
2. The value of a liability cash flow in discrete time subject to capital requirements
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The value of a liability cash flow in discrete time subject to capital requirements
2020 (English)In: Finance and Stochastics, ISSN 0949-2984, E-ISSN 1432-1122, Vol. 24, no 1, p. 125-167Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The aim of this paper is to define the market-consistent multi-period value of an insurance liability cash flow in discrete time subject to repeated capital requirements, and explore its properties. In line with current regulatory frameworks, the presented approach is based on a hypothetical transfer of the original liability and a replicating portfolio to an empty corporate entity, whose owner must comply with repeated one-period capital requirements but has the option to terminate the ownership at any time. The value of the liability is defined as the no-arbitrage price of the cash flow to the policyholders, optimally stopped from the owner’s perspective, taking capital requirements into account. The value is computed as the solution to a sequence of coupled optimal stopping problems or, equivalently, as the solution to a backward recursion.

Keywords
Market-consistent valuation, Replicating portfolios, Capital requirements
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-161902 (URN)10.1007/s00780-019-00408-0 (DOI)000511748200004 ()
Available from: 2018-11-12 Created: 2018-11-12 Last updated: 2022-02-26Bibliographically approved
3. Continuous-time limits of multi-period cost-of-capital margins
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Continuous-time limits of multi-period cost-of-capital margins
2020 (English)In: Statistics & Risk Modeling, ISSN 2193-1402, Vol. 37, no 3-4, p. 79-106Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We consider multi-period cost-of-capital valuation of a liability cash flow subject to repeated capital requirements that are partly financed by capital injections from capital providers with limited liability. Limited liability means that, in any given period, the capital provider is not liable for further payment in the event that the capital provided at the beginning of the period turns out to be insufficient to cover both the current-period payments and the updated value of the remaining cash flow. The liability cash flow is modeled as a continuous-time stochastic process on [0,T]. The multi-period structure is given by a partition of [0,T] into subintervals, and on the corresponding finite set of times, a discrete-time cost-of-capital-margin process is defined. Our main objective is the analysis of existence and properties of continuous-time limits of discrete-time cost-of-capital-margin processes corresponding to a sequence of partitions whose meshes tend to zero. Moreover, we provide explicit expressions for the limit processes when cash flows are given by Itô diffusions and processes with independent increments.

Keywords
Multi-period valuation, cost-of-capital margin, continuous-time limit
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-189799 (URN)10.1515/strm-2019-0008 (DOI)000717524800001 ()
Available from: 2021-02-01 Created: 2021-02-01 Last updated: 2021-12-07Bibliographically approved
4. Least squares Monte Carlo applied to dynamic monetary utility functions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Least squares Monte Carlo applied to dynamic monetary utility functions
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In this paper we explore ways of numerically computing recursive dynamic monetary risk measures and utility functions. Computationally, this problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality and nested simulations are unfeasible if there are more than two time steps. The approach considered in this paper is to use a Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm to tackle this problem, a method which has been primarily considered for valuing American derivatives, or more general stopping time problems, as these also give rise to backward recursions with corresponding challenges in terms of numerical computation. We give some overarching consistency results for the LSM algorithm in a general setting as well as explore numerically its performance for recursive Cost-of-Capital valuation, a special case of a dynamic monetary utility function.

National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics; Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-192123 (URN)
Available from: 2021-04-13 Created: 2021-04-13 Last updated: 2022-02-25

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