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Cross-Border Climate Impacts in Food Trade Networks
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8137-050X
Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden.
Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden.
Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden.
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Climate impacts are predicted to become redistributed through countries’ reliance on food trade networks. This constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning, and may affect how countries engage in geopolitical and cooperative action. This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks. We ask: i) to what extent might climate change impacts entail a change in the structure of global food trade networks, and ii) how might a change in supply be distributed among the countries in trade blocs? We propose a simple network model to identify how climate change impacts on crops yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining FAO and ISIMIP data, the model is applied to three key staple crops in the global food system: wheat, rice and maize. We use network community detection and functional cartography to analyse the degree to which global production is concentrated within different trade blocs before and after climate change impacts, and how countries distribute supply depending on their different network role. Our results predict that food trade networks may become more disaggregated as countries, particularly major global producers, may increasingly distribute their trade across modules with climate change impacts. Results also estimate that global food security may much depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade blocs can balance production loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline scenario analysis of cross-border impacts on food trade networks, and insight into whether current food trade structures will allow counties to maintain current supply.

Keywords [en]
cross border climate change impacts, food trade networks, global food system, climate adaptation, network community detection
National Category
Other Natural Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197259OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-197259DiVA, id: diva2:1598574
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01144Available from: 2021-09-29 Created: 2021-09-29 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. The environment knows no borders: Investigating the collective challenge of governing policy issue interdependencies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The environment knows no borders: Investigating the collective challenge of governing policy issue interdependencies
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Many of today’s most pressing environmental problems cross-cut jurisdictional, geographical, and administrative boundaries, creating interdependencies between different locations and between policy issues that no single actor can address alone. In practice, however, environmental policy is still often contained within the traditional responsibilities of the public sector and frequently judged ineffective, particularly in the European context. Whether and how interdependencies are actually associated with collaboration between policy actors has remained difficult to establish.  

This cumulative thesis focuses on interdependent environmental challenges that policy actors need to manage. Specifically, this thesis describes and analyses policy issue interdependencies and how they align with the collaborations of policy actors. In addition, this thesis explores how policy issue interdependencies can be revealed, concretised, and analysed. Interdependencies are effectively represented by networks, both as conceptual models and as analytical methods. Therefore, the studies in this thesis use a multilevel network model to explore the structural alignment between interdependencies and collaboration through the perspective of institutional fit.

This thesis reports findings from two research projects. The first project focuses on policy issue interdependencies relating to regional water degradation. This project describes and analyses these interdependencies in relation to collaborative networks across administrative boundaries (Papers I–III). The second project focuses on climate change impacts that propagate through food trade dependencies. This project contributes insights into the effect of climate change on food trade networks that cross national borders, illustrating a need for global climate adaptation (Paper IV).

Paper I introduces a methodological procedure for assessing policy issue interdependencies and develops policy issue networks by identifying overlapping causal relationships between policy issues and their environmental targets. By applying the procedure empirically to water governance, the paper shows that policy issue interdependencies vary in degree and type. Paper II combines the policy issue networks from Paper I with collaborative networks of policy actors in a multilevel network to analyse the impact policy issue interdependencies have on who policy actors select for collaborative partners and to clarify if and how patterns of collaboration among actors are formed. Paper III differentiates reinforcing and counteracting policy issue interdependencies and studies how these impact the perceptions and collaborations of the actors. Paper IV, shifting the focus to the global level, analyses climate change impacts related to food trade dependencies across national borders. Specifically, Paper IV investigates the impact of climate change on the structure of global food trade networks and therefore contributes a baseline scenario analysis for future studies that investigate policy issue interdependencies and policy actor collaborations on the global level.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholms University, 2021. p. 55
Keywords
policy issue interdependencies, collaborative governance, networks, environmental problems, policy issues, policy actors, boundary-spanning, water governance, cross-border climate impacts, food trade systems
National Category
Peace and Conflict Studies Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Other Natural Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197272 (URN)978-91-7911-626-2 (ISBN)978-91-7911-627-9 (ISBN)
Public defence
2021-11-12, Vivi Täckholmsalen (Q-salen), NPQ-huset, Svante Arrhenius väg 20, Stockholm, 09:30 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2021-10-20 Created: 2021-09-29 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved

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Hedlund, JohannaBodin, Örjan

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