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Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of Iceland, Iceland.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8995-9597
2022 (English)In: Ecosystems, ISSN 1432-9840, E-ISSN 1435-0629, Vol. 25, no 5, p. 1117-1134Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Arctic may be particularly vulnerable to the consequences of both ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, given the faster pace of these processes in comparison with global average speeds. Here, we use the Atlantis ecosystem model to assess how the trophic network of marine fishes and invertebrates in the Icelandic waters is responding to the combined pressures of OA and warming. We develop an approach where we first identify species by their economic (catch value), social (number of participants in fisheries), or ecological (keystone species) importance. We then use literature-determined ranges of sensitivity to OA and warming for different species and functional groups in the Icelandic waters to parametrize model runs for different scenarios of warming and OA. We found divergent species responses to warming and acidification levels; (mainly) planktonic groups and forage fish benefited while (mainly) benthic groups and predatory fish decreased under warming and acidification scenarios. Assuming conservative harvest rates for the largest catch-value species, Atlantic cod, we see that the population is projected to remain stable under even the harshest acidification and warming scenario. Further, for the scenarios where the model projects reductions in biomass of Atlantic cod, other species in the ecosystem increase, likely due to a reduction in competition and predation. These results highlight the interdependencies of multiple global change drivers and their cascading effects on trophic organization, and the continued high abundance of an important species from a socio-economic perspective in the Icelandic fisheries. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 25, no 5, p. 1117-1134
Keywords [en]
Risk, Warming, Acidification, Network analysis, Ecosystem model
National Category
Ecology
Research subject
Ecology and Evolution
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197638DOI: 10.1007/s10021-021-00705-wISI: 000702284900002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85115835106OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-197638DiVA, id: diva2:1602251
Available from: 2021-10-12 Created: 2021-10-12 Last updated: 2023-05-16Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Fisheries Management under Individual Transferable Quota: Outcomes for Ecology and Equity
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Fisheries Management under Individual Transferable Quota: Outcomes for Ecology and Equity
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The management of marine resources pose a difficult commons problem as monitoring behavior is difficult and benefit flows from the resources are uncertain. Implementing individual transferable quota (ITQ) is a management regime in which quasi-property rights are assigned for an often mobile and uncertain environmental resource, fish or marine invertebrates. This thesis addresses sustainability impacts of ITQ’s as a fisheries management tool. The findings demonstrate that fisheries management regimes in which fisheries opportunities are allocated as quota and / or are allocated individually experience reduced overfishing compared to controls that do not have these attributes (Paper I), however the analysis found less support for transferability and no support for longer duration being associated to any change in the probability of overfishing. In addition, a longitudinal study showed that with an adaptive design ecological and economic goals could be balanced in an important mixed fishery in Iceland (Paper II), and based on such findings suggested that several policy changes could be implemented to modify the ecological risk of catch-quota balancing allowances. Additional longitudinal analyses allowed to conclude that rapid consolidation in an important small-boat fishing sector in Iceland, which may have had negative implications for local fishing communities (Paper III), and that on average since the introduction of ITQ’s total amount of quota traded stayed below around 60% for the main commercial species in the Icelandic ITQ system. Moreover, the results of Paper IV also show that in case of a credible announcement of quota revocation in the future there would be scope for policy reform. Finally, research is beginning to emerge that shows that marine species are unequally affected by climate change. In a final chapter the analyses show that under different scenarios of global change a re-shaping of the Icelandic foodweb is likely (Paper V). The re-shaping of the foodweb will be to the benefit of some resource users and to the loss of others. In general, the findings from all the analyses together demonstrate that there could be benefits to individual quota implementation for fisheries sustainability and that some of the hypothesized trade-offs could potentially be balanced, the thesis highlights ways forward in investigating the common pool problems in fisheries management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Reykjavik: University of Iceland, Iceland, 2021
Series
Dissertations in Physical Geography, ISSN 2003-2358 ; 14
Keywords
Fisheries management, Individual transferable quota, common pool resources
National Category
Economics Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Ecology Environmental Management
Research subject
Physical Geography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-191483 (URN)978-9935-9579-2-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2021-04-29, room Aðalbygging, University of Iceland, Sæmundargötu 2. The public defense will also be streamed online, Reykjavik, 15:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2021-04-06 Created: 2021-03-23 Last updated: 2025-02-10Bibliographically approved

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Oostdijk, Maartje

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Citation style
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