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Dynamic shrinkage estimation of the high-dimensional minimum-variance portfolio
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7855-8221
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5992-1216
2023 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, ISSN 1053-587X, E-ISSN 1941-0476, Vol. 71, p. 1334-1349Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, new results in random matrix theory are derived, which allow us to construct a shrinkage estimator of the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio when the shrinkage target is a random object. More specifically, the shrinkage target is determined as the holding portfolio estimated from previous data. The theoretical findings are applied to develop theory for dynamic estimation of the GMV portfolio, where the new estimator of its weights is shrunk to the holding portfolio at each time of reconstruction. Both cases with and without overlapping samples are considered in the paper. The non-overlapping samples corresponds to the case when different data of the asset returns are used to construct the traditional estimator of the GMV portfolio weights and to determine the target portfolio, while the overlapping case allows intersections between the samples. The theoretical results are derived under weak assumptions imposed on the data-generating process. No specific distribution is assumed for the asset returns except from the assumption of finite 4+ε, ε>0, moments. Also, the population covariance matrix with unbounded largest eigenvalue can be considered. The performance of new trading strategies is investigated via an extensive simulation. Finally, the theoretical findings are implemented in an empirical illustration based on the returns on stocks included in the S&P 500 index.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. Vol. 71, p. 1334-1349
Keywords [en]
Shrinkage estimator, high-dimensional covariance matrix, random matrix theory, minimum variance portfolio, parameter uncertainty, dynamic decision making
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-203613DOI: 10.1109/TSP.2023.3263950ISI: 000979918600009Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85153339235OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-203613DiVA, id: diva2:1650009
Available from: 2022-04-05 Created: 2022-04-05 Last updated: 2024-09-03Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Optimal portfolios in the high-dimensional setting: Estimation and assessment of uncertainty
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Optimal portfolios in the high-dimensional setting: Estimation and assessment of uncertainty
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Financial portfolios and diversification go hand in hand. Diversification is one of, if not, the best risk mitigation strategy there is. If an investment performs poorly, then it will not impact the performance of the portfolio much due to diversification. Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is a framework for constructing diversified portfolios. However, MPT relies on unknown parameters that need to be estimated. By using estimates, estimation uncertainty is introduced to the allocation problem. This thesis contains five papers which provide results on how to deal with estimation uncertainty in very large sample portfolios from the MPT framework. These results provide tools to better understand the investment process and the empirical results that can be observed.

Paper I explores all of the portfolios that can be placed in the framework of MPT. The paper provides the sampling distribution for all optimal portfolios and their characteristics. This is done by assuming that the returns follow a multivariate normal distribution. Furthermore, the high-dimensional asymptotic joint distribution for the quantities of interest is derived. A simulation study shows that the high-dimensional distribution can provide a good approximation to the finite sample one.

Paper II continues on the idea of paper I. It considers the quadratic utility allocation problem from paper I with an additional risk-free asset in the portfolio. The portfolio is usually known as the Tangency Portfolio (TP). The distribution of the sample TP weights is derived under a skew-normal distribution. Results show that skewness implies a bias in the finite sample TP weights. The bias dissapears in the high-dimensional distribution.

Paper III takes on a practical aspect of investing, namely how to transition from one portfolio to another. A reallocation scheme is developed, which minimizes the out-of-sample variance of the Global Minimum Variance (GMV) portfolio, given a holding portfolio. The holding portfolio is the portfolio which an investor currently owns. An extensive simulation study show that the reallocation scheme can provide accurate estimates of the portfolio variance. Furthermore, an empirical application shows that the scheme provides the smallest out-of-sample variance in comparison to a number of benchmarks. The theoretical results from this paper are implemented in the DOSPortfolio R-package.

Paper IV derives properties of two different performance measures for three different high-dimensional GMV portfolio estimators. The measures are the out-of-sample variance and loss. The former is always used as an evaluation metric in empirical applications. The results show that the latter metric, the out-of-sample loss, does not need the same stringent assumptions as the out-of-sample variance in the high-dimensional setting. Using the out-of-sample loss, the performance of the three different portfolios can be ordered. This order is verified in a simulation study and an empirical application.

Paper V extends the results of papers III and IV. It introduces Thikonov regularization to the GMV portfolio weights as well as linear shrinkage. A simulation study shows that the method is preferable to a number of benchmarks. Furthermore, an empirical application shows that it can provide the smallest out-of-sample variance and provide good characteristics for the portfolio weights.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, 2022. p. 36
Keywords
Shrinkage estimator, high-dimensional covariance matrix, random matrix theory, optimal portfolios, parameter uncertainty, ridge regularization, dynamic decision making
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-203618 (URN)978-91-7911-856-3 (ISBN)978-91-7911-857-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2022-05-30, sal 14, hus 5, Kräftriket, Roslagsvägen 101, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2022-05-05 Created: 2022-04-08 Last updated: 2022-04-26Bibliographically approved

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Bodnar, TarasThorsén, Erik

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