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Sensitivity of Modeled Microphysics to Stochastically Perturbed Parameters
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . University of Belgrade, Serbia.
Number of Authors: 32022 (English)In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, ISSN 1942-2466, Vol. 14, no 7, article id e2021MS002933Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study examines the characteristics of several model parameter perturbation methodologies for ensemble simulations of cloud microphysical processes in convection. A simplified 1D model is used to focus the results on cloud microphysics without the complication of feedbacks to the dynamics and environment. Several parameter perturbation methods are tested, including non-stochastic and stochastic with various distributions and parameter covariance. We find that an ensemble comprised of different time-invariant parameters (non-stochastic) exhibits little bias, but small spread. In addition, its behavior does not respect the time evolution of convection through its various phases. Stochastic parameter (SP) methods in which no inter-parameter covariance is applied produce greater spread, but significant bias. The bias is particularly large for lognormal parameter perturbation distributions. The ensemble spread is retained and the bias reduced when time-varying parameter covariance is applied. In this case, the SP scheme is able to adapt to the time and state-dependent covariance structures and produce ensemble characteristics that are consistent with the specific microphysical processes operating at any given time. The results suggest that SP schemes would benefit from inclusion of parameter covariances, and specifically those that vary with the state of the system. It also suggests that a Normal or LogNormal SP scheme with no covariance may significantly impact the ensemble bias. Finally, the results indicate that high temporal and spatial resolution observations may be needed to characterize the variability in parameter values and covariance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 14, no 7, article id e2021MS002933
Keywords [en]
microphysics, stochastic parameterizations, ensemble prediction, convection, data assimilation
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-208496DOI: 10.1029/2021MS002933ISI: 000825350800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85135005974OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-208496DiVA, id: diva2:1692066
Available from: 2022-08-31 Created: 2022-08-31 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Stankovic, Aleksa

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