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Indirect Estimation of the Timing of First Union Dissolution With Incomplete Marriage Histories
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany; University of Malawi, Malawi.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3398-6024
Number of Authors: 22023 (English)In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 60, no 2, p. 411-430Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The lack of nationally representative data with detailed marriage histories in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) impedes a comprehensive understanding of essential aspects of union dissolution, such as the timing of first union dissolution, in these countries. We propose a method for estimating quantum-adjusted measures of the timing of first union dissolution from incomplete marriage histories. This method, indirect life table of first union dissolution (ILTUD), estimates the first union survival function from a simple tabulation of ever-married women by duration since first union, classified by union dissolution status (intact vs. dissolved first union). It then uses the relationships between life table functions to generate the distribution of marriages ending each year (⁠θt⁠) for a given marriage cohort. Using this distribution, ILTUD generates quantum-adjusted first union survival rates from which the percentiles of first union dissolution are calculated. ILTUD estimates are consistent with estimates produced using traditional statistical methods, such as the Kaplan–Meier estimator. In addition, ILTUD is simple to implement and has minimal data requirements, which are available in most nationally representative surveys. Thus, the ILTUD method has the potential to broaden our understanding of union dissolution dynamics in LMICs.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. Vol. 60, no 2, p. 411-430
Keywords [en]
Marriage, Union dissolution, Demographic methods, Survival analysis, Indirect estimation
National Category
Sociology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-217109DOI: 10.1215/00703370-10581068ISI: 000967740400004PubMedID: 36825792Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85151168186OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-217109DiVA, id: diva2:1758461
Available from: 2023-05-23 Created: 2023-05-23 Last updated: 2024-02-07Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Union-Fertility Nexus and Fertility Variation in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Marital Dissolution and Repartnering
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Union-Fertility Nexus and Fertility Variation in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Marital Dissolution and Repartnering
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The role of marital dissolution and repartnering in shaping fertility patterns in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been largely overlooked, even though marital dissolution and repartnering are fundamental features of marriage dynamics in this region. This dissertation addresses this gap by using existing statistical and demographic techniques and developing new demographic methods to (i) examine the relationship between union dissolution and fertility at the micro level (Study I); (ii) assess the dynamics of union dissolution, including the levels of all-cause first union dissolution, the timing of first union dissolution, and the reproductive years spent outside of marriage due to union dissolution (Studies II & III); and (iii) analyze the influence of marital dissolution and repartnering on macro fertility patterns in SSA (Study IV). The analyses are mainly based on Demographic Health Survey data collected in 34 SSA countries since 1986. The findings show that marital dissolution is associated with reduced fertility at both the individual and the population level, and remarriage does not fully compensate for lost fertility at the individual level. The assessment of the dynamics of union dissolution indicates that union dissolution is common, it typically occurs at relatively early reproductive ages, and the number of reproductive years lost due to union dissolution is minimal. Furthermore, this dissertation documents that cross-country differences in union dissolution and repartnering rates account for 9.4% of cross-country fertility differences in SSA. In addition, the results show that changes in marital dissolution and repartnering rates and the fertility behaviour of women who experience these events mostly contributed to the slow pace of fertility decline in this region. For the SSA region (as a whole), fertility would have declined 1.24 times faster in the absence of such changes. These findings demonstrate that marital dissolution and repartnering are important drivers of fertility variation in SSA, and thus highlight the value of integrating these dynamics into the discourse on the union-fertility nexus and fertility variation in SSA and beyond.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, 2024. p. 43
Series
Dissertation series / Stockholm University Demography Unit, ISSN 1404-2304 ; 26
Keywords
fertility, fertility transition, marriage, marriage formation, marital dissolution, repartnering, Sub-Saharan Africa, demographic methods
National Category
Sociology
Research subject
Sociological Demography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-226359 (URN)978-91-8014-669-2 (ISBN)978-91-8014-670-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-04-08, Hörsal 3, hus B, Södra huset, Universitetsvägen 10 and online via Zoom: https://stockholmuniversity.zoom.us/j/69268838495, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
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Supervisors
Available from: 2024-03-14 Created: 2024-02-07 Last updated: 2024-03-04Bibliographically approved

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