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General Risk Index: A Measure for Predicting Violent Behavior Through Written Communication
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3724-7504
Mind Intelligence Lab, Uppsala, Sweden.
Uppsala Universitet, Uppsala, Sweden.
Number of Authors: 32023 (English)In: 2023 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (BigData), IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) , 2023, p. 4065-4070Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

One of the most challenging threats to the security of society is attacks from violent lone offenders. Identifying potential offenders is difficult since they act alone and do not necessarily communicate with others. However, several targeted violent attacks have been preceded by communication published on social media and the internet. Such communication is a valuable component when conducting risk and threat assessments.In this paper, we introduce a diagnostic measure of the risk of violent behavior based on text analysis. Using automated text analysis, we extract psychological variables and warning indicators from a given text and summarize these in an index that we denote as the general risk index. When developing the general risk index, we analyzed data (text) from 208 288 users on 32 online environments with diverse ideologies/orientations, including 76 previous violent lone offenders. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis showed that, when using the general risk index, it was possible to correctly classify between 90% and 96% of the cases depending on the comparison sample. These results support the predictive validity of the general risk index, suggesting that the risk index can be used to identify individuals with an increased risk of committing violent attacks that need further investigation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) , 2023. p. 4065-4070
National Category
Information Systems
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-228008DOI: 10.1109/BigData59044.2023.10386789Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85184978311ISBN: 979-8-3503-2446-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-228008DiVA, id: diva2:1849587
Conference
2023 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (BigData), 15-18 December 2023, Sorrento, Italy.
Available from: 2024-04-08 Created: 2024-04-08 Last updated: 2024-04-12Bibliographically approved

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Kaati, Lisa

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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