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Optimal Intervention Strategies for Minimizing Total Incidence During an Epidemic
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9228-7357
Number of Authors: 22023 (English)In: SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, ISSN 0036-1399, E-ISSN 1095-712X, Vol. 83, no 2, p. 354-373Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article considers the minimization of the total number of infected individuals over the course of an epidemic in which the rate of infectious contacts can be reduced by time-dependent nonpharmaceutical interventions. The societal and economic costs of interventions are taken into account using a linear budget constraint which imposes a trade-off between short-term heavy interventions and long-term light interventions. We search for an optimal intervention strategy in an infinite-dimensional space of controls containing multiple consecutive lockdowns, gradually imposed and lifted restrictions, and various heuristic controls based, for example, on tracking the effective reproduction number. Mathematical analysis shows that among all such strategies, the global optimum is achieved by a single constant-level lockdown of maximum possible magnitude. Numerical simulations highlight the need for careful timing of such interventions and illustrate their benefits and disadvantages compared to strategies designed for minimizing peak prevalence. Rather counterintuitively, adding restrictions prior to the start of a well-planned intervention strategy may even increase the total incidence.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. Vol. 83, no 2, p. 354-373
Keywords [en]
SIR epidemic model, lockdown policy, prevention strategy, epidemic final size, herd immunity
National Category
Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-229520DOI: 10.1137/22M1504433ISI: 001019539100002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85153382212OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-229520DiVA, id: diva2:1860943
Available from: 2024-05-27 Created: 2024-05-27 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved

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Britton, Tom

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