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Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8006-5941
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI). Uppsala University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2032-5211
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5507-9209
Number of Authors: 42024 (English)In: Weather and Climate Dynamics, ISSN 2698-4024, E-ISSN 2698-4016, Vol. 5, no 2, p. 821-837Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study investigates the role of large-scale atmospheric processes in the development of cyclones causing extreme surface winds over the central North Atlantic basin (30 to 60° N, 10 to 50° W), focusing on the extended winter period (October–March) from 1950 until 2020 in the ERA5 reanalysis product. Extreme surface wind events are identified as footprints of spatio-temporally contiguous 10 m wind exceedances over the local 98th percentile. Cyclones that cause the top 1 % most intense wind footprints are identified. After excluding 16 (14 %) of cyclones that originated as tropical cyclones, further analysis is done on the remaining 99 extratropical cyclones (“top extremes”). These are compared to a set of cyclones yielding wind footprints with exceedances marginally above the 98th percentile (“moderate extremes”). Cyclones leading to top extremes are, from their time of cyclogenesis, characterised by the presence of pre-existing downstream cyclones, a strong polar jet, and positive upper-level potential vorticity anomalies to the north. All these features are absent or much weaker in the case of moderate extremes, implying that they play a key role in the explosive development of top extremes and in the generation of spatially extended wind footprints. There is also an indication of cyclonic Rossby wave breaking preceding the top extremes. Furthermore, analysis of the pressure tendency equation over the cyclones' evolution reveals that, although the leading contributions to surface pressure decrease vary from cyclone to cyclone, top extremes have on average a larger diabatic contribution than moderate extremes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 5, no 2, p. 821-837
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-235517DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024ISI: 001246055100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85196319540OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-235517DiVA, id: diva2:1913616
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 956396, EDIPI projectAvailable from: 2024-11-15 Created: 2024-11-15 Last updated: 2026-03-10Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Extratropical cyclones and extreme windstorms: A global perspective with a focus on the main storm track regions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Extratropical cyclones and extreme windstorms: A global perspective with a focus on the main storm track regions
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Extratropical cyclones (ECs) have a crucial importance for shaping the weather and climate of midlatitudes. ECs dominate the daily variability of weather and cause the majority of extreme weather events like extreme surface winds and precipitation. Extreme surface winds caused by ECs cause substantial losses in the insured property when they hit the land and have, therefore, been closely studied. They have been studied both climatologically and in terms of case studies of individual impactful ECs. 

However, ECs that come to land are only a small portion of all ECs. ECs most frequently occur over the midlatitude oceans in the regions called the storm tracks. Even though the highest frequency of occurrence of ECs is over the storm tracks, comparatively less attention was paid to the ECs which cause extreme winds over these areas.

This thesis studies the ECs that cause extreme surface winds over the oceanic storm tracks, in the areas where the occurrence of ECs is the highest. More specifically, the papers in the thesis focus on the ECs and the extreme surface winds over the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Southern Ocean. We analyze various datasets, from observations and reanalysis products, to those produced by our climate modeling experiments. 

One of the key results of the thesis is that the extreme surface winds in the storm track areas are larger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, even though the Southern Hemisphere is known to have the stronger average surface winds. More specifically, the North Atlantic has the largest extreme surface winds, followed by the North Pacific and the Southern Ocean. The hemispheric difference in extreme surface winds exists because the extreme winds are stronger around winter ECs in the Northern Hemisphere, and the strongest in the North Atlantic.

Another important result from the thesis is that the ECs that cause the most extreme surface winds have a similar large-scale development in all major storm track basins. This development is characterized by the presence of a pre-existing downstream EC, which helps to create an environment conducive to the development of extreme wind-causing ECs. In addition, we connect the differences in extreme surface winds between the basins to differences in the mid-tropospheric Eady growth rates. The extremes of Eady growth rates, as well as the percentage of explosively deepening ECs, are higher in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Finally, the modeling studies we do show that the main drivers of the differences in the extreme surface winds (and the Eady growth rates) are spatial distributions of sea-surface temperatures and orography.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 2026. p. 46
Keywords
windstorms, cyclones, storm tracks, extreme weather, climatology
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-253204 (URN)978-91-8107-540-3 (ISBN)978-91-8107-541-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-04-29, hörsal 5, hus B, Universitetsvägen 10 B, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 956396, EDIPI project
Available from: 2026-04-01 Created: 2026-03-10 Last updated: 2026-04-07Bibliographically approved

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Stanković, AleksaMessori, GabrieleCaballero, Rodrigo

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