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The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6582-1174
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Number of Authors: 102024 (English)In: PloS Computational Biology, ISSN 1553-734X, E-ISSN 1553-7358, Vol. 20, article id e1012182Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful analysis and quantitative understanding on their effects. To this end, we model the influence of cross-border mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 in the neighbouring Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We investigate the immediate impact of cross-border travel on disease spread and employ counterfactual scenarios to explore the cumulative effects of introducing additional infected individuals into a population during the ongoing epidemic. Our results indicate that the effect of inter-country mobility on epidemic growth is non-negligible essentially when there is sizeable mobility from a high prevalence country or countries to a low prevalence one. Our findings underscore the critical importance of accurate data and models on both epidemic progression and travel patterns in informing decisions related to inter-country mobility restrictions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 20, article id e1012182
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Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
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URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-235642DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012182ISI: 001246985400002PubMedID: 38865414Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85195798661OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-235642DiVA, id: diva2:1914017
Available from: 2024-11-18 Created: 2024-11-18 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved

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Günther, Felix

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