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Crop booms as regime shifts
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7780-1039
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2322-5459
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Number of Authors: 82024 (English)In: Royal Society Open Science, E-ISSN 054-5703, Vol. 11, no 6, article id 231571Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A crop boom is a sudden, nonlinear and intense expansion of a new crop. Despite their large impacts, boom-bust dynamics are not well understood; booms are largely unpredictable and difficult to steer once they unfold. Based on the striking resemblances between land regime shifts and crop booms, we apply complex systems theory, highlighting the potential for regime shifts, to provide new insights about crop boom dynamics. We analyse qualitative and quantitative data of rubber and banana plantation expansion in two forest frontier regions of northern Laos. We show that preconditions, including previous booms, explain the occurrence (why) of booms, and triggers like policy and market changes explain their timing (when). Yet, the most important features of booms, their intensity and nonlinearity (how), strongly depended on internal self-reinforcing feedbacks. We identify built-in feedbacks (neighbourhood effects and imitation) and emergent feedbacks (land rush) and show that they were social in nature, multi-scale from plot to region and subject to thresholds. We suggest that these are regular features of booms and propose a definition and causal-mechanistic explanation of crop booms, examining the overlap between booms and regime shifts and the role of frontiers. We then identify opportunities for management interventions before, during and after booms.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 11, no 6, article id 231571
Keywords [en]
complex systems, crop booms, frontiers, land regime shifts, Laos, self-reinforcing feedbacks
National Category
Agricultural Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-236590DOI: 10.1098/rsos.231571ISI: 001251268700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85186349892OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-236590DiVA, id: diva2:1917473
Available from: 2024-12-02 Created: 2024-12-02 Last updated: 2024-12-02Bibliographically approved

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Schlüter, MajaRocha, Juan

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