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Can we reliably reconstruct the mid-Pliocene Warm Period with sparse data and uncertain models?
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1418-4077
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Number of Authors: 52024 (English)In: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 20, no 9, p. 1989-1999Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present a reconstruction of the surface climate of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), specifically Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) KM5c or 3.205 Ma. We combine the ensemble of climate model simulations, which contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), with compilations of proxy data analyses of sea surface temperature (SST). The different data sets we considered are all sparse with high uncertainty, and the best estimate of annual global mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly varies from 2.1 up to 4.8 °C depending on the data source. We argue that the latest PlioVAR analysis of alkenone data is likely more reliable than other data sets we consider, and using this data set yields an SAT anomaly of 3.9±1.1 °C, with a value of 2.8±0.9 °C for SST (all uncertainties are quoted at 1 standard deviation). However, depending on the application, it may be advisable to consider the broader range arising from the various data sets to account for structural uncertainty. The regional-scale information in the reconstruction may not be reliable as it is largely based on the patterns simulated by the models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 20, no 9, p. 1989-1999
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Astronomy, Astrophysics and Cosmology
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URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-237742DOI: 10.5194/cp-20-1989-2024ISI: 001310091800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85204191394OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-237742DiVA, id: diva2:1926770
Available from: 2025-01-13 Created: 2025-01-13 Last updated: 2025-01-13Bibliographically approved

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Mauritsen, Thorsten

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  • apa
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