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An SEIR network epidemic model with manual and digital contact tracing allowing delays
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6365-5491
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9228-7357
Number of Authors: 22024 (English)In: Mathematical Biosciences, ISSN 0025-5564, E-ISSN 1879-3134, Vol. 374, article id 109231Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We consider an SEIR epidemic model on a network also allowing random contacts, where recovered individuals could either recover naturally or be diagnosed. Upon diagnosis, manual contact tracing is triggered such that each infected network contact is reported, tested and isolated with some probability and after a random delay. Additionally, digital tracing (based on a tracing app) is triggered if the diagnosed individual is an app-user, and then all of its app-using infectees are immediately notified and isolated. The early phase of the epidemic with manual and/or digital tracing is approximated by different multi-type branching processes, and three respective reproduction numbers are derived. The effectiveness of both contact tracing mechanisms is numerically quantified through the reduction of the reproduction number. This shows that app-using fraction plays an essential role in the overall effectiveness of contact tracing. The relative effectiveness of manual tracing compared to digital tracing increases if: more of the transmission occurs on the network, when the tracing delay is shortened, and when the network degree distribution is heavy-tailed. For realistic values, the combined tracing case can reduce R0 by 20%–30%, so other preventive measures are needed to reduce the reproduction number down to 1.2–1.4 for contact tracing to make it successful in avoiding big outbreaks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 374, article id 109231
Keywords [en]
Branching process, Contact tracing, Epidemic model, Reproduction number
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-238169DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109231ISI: 001266192900001PubMedID: 38914260Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85197160163OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-238169DiVA, id: diva2:1933954
Available from: 2025-02-03 Created: 2025-02-03 Last updated: 2025-02-03Bibliographically approved

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Zhang, DongniBritton, Tom

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