Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 112025 (English)In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 16, no 1, p. 275-292Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Warm-water coral reefs are facing unprecedented human-driven threats to their continued existence as biodiverse functional ecosystems upon which hundreds of millions of people rely. These impacts may drive coral ecosystems past critical thresholds, beyond which the system reorganises, often abruptly and potentially irreversibly; this is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022) define as a tipping point. Determining tipping point thresholds for coral reef ecosystems requires a robust assessment of multiple stressors and their interactive effects. In this perspective piece, we draw upon the recent global tipping point revision initiative (Lenton et al., 2023a) and a literature search to identify and summarise the diverse range of interacting stressors that need to be considered for determining tipping point thresholds for warm-water coral reef ecosystems. Considering observed and projected stressor impacts, we endorse the global tipping point revision's conclusion of a global mean surface temperature (relative to pre-industrial) tipping point threshold of 1.2 °C (range 1–1.5 °C) and the long-term impacts of atmospheric CO2 concentrations above 350 ppm, while acknowledging that comprehensive assessment of stressors, including ocean warming response dynamics, overshoot, and cascading impacts, have yet to be sufficiently realised. These tipping point thresholds have already been exceeded, and therefore these systems are in an overshoot state and are reliant on policy actions to bring stressor levels back within tipping point limits. A fuller assessment of interacting stressors is likely to further lower the tipping point thresholds in most cases. Uncertainties around tipping points for such crucially important ecosystems underline the imperative of robust assessment and, in the case of knowledge gaps, employing a precautionary principle favouring lower-range tipping point values.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. Vol. 16, no 1, p. 275-292
National Category
Ecology Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-242073DOI: 10.5194/esd-16-275-2025ISI: 001415209700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85218352010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-242073DiVA, id: diva2:1951816
Available from: 2025-04-14 Created: 2025-04-14 Last updated: 2025-04-14Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Rocha, Juan

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Rocha, Juan
By organisation
Stockholm Resilience Centre
In the same journal
Earth System Dynamics
EcologyEnvironmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 37 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf