Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 372025 (English)In: Earth's Future, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 13, no 3, article id e2024EF005537Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. Earth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. Coupling these simulations with an ensemble of global marine ecosystem models has indicated broad decreases of fish biomass with warming. However, regional details of these impacts remain much more uncertain. Here, we employ CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate change impact projections using two Earth system models coupled with four regional and nine global marine ecosystem models in 10 ocean regions to evaluate model agreement at regional scales. We find that models developed at different scales can lead to stark differences in biomass projections. On average, global models projected greater biomass declines by the end of the 21st century than regional models. For both global and regional models, greater biomass declines were projected using CMIP6 than CMIP5 simulations. Global models projected biomass declines in 86% of CMIP5 simulations for ocean regions compared to 50% for regional models in the same ocean regions. In CMIP6 simulations, all global model simulations projected biomass declines in ocean regions by 2100, while regional models projected biomass declines in 67% of the ocean region simulations. Our analysis suggests that improved understanding of the causes of differences between global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections is needed, alongside observational evaluation of modeled responses.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. Vol. 13, no 3, article id e2024EF005537
Keywords [en]
fisheries, fisheries and marine ecosystem model intercomparison project (FishMIP), inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (ISIMIP), model ensemble, model intercomparison project (MIP)
National Category
Climate Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-242008DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005537ISI: 001436421600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-86000097230OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-242008DiVA, id: diva2:1951911
Available from: 2025-04-14 Created: 2025-04-14 Last updated: 2025-04-14Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Niiranen, Susa

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Niiranen, Susa
By organisation
Stockholm Resilience CentreDepartment of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences
In the same journal
Earth's Future
Climate Science

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 45 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf