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Disentangling density and geometry in weather regime dimensions using stochastic twins
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Uppsala University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2032-5211
Number of Authors: 32025 (English)In: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, E-ISSN 2397-3722, Vol. 8, article id 203Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Large-scale atmospheric variability can be summarized by recurring patterns called weather regimes. Their properties, including predictability, have been studied using the local dimension, a geometrical estimate of degrees of freedom from multifractal theory. Local dimension estimates vary across regimes, decrease when a single regime dominates, and increase during transitions, supporting their dynamical significance. However, these variations stem not only from geometry but also from sampling density. We develop a null-hypothesis test using stochastic twins-Gaussian mixture-based surrogates matching atmospheric sampling density but with constant geometry-applied to ERA5 500 hPa fields. Density effects alone explain over 25% of local dimension variance and reproduce the dimension drop near regime peaks, indicating this behavior is density-driven, not geometric. The remaining variability is plausibly geometry-driven. This approach, applicable to any observed system with known sampling distribution, offers a new framework for interpreting local dimension estimates in atmospheric and oceanic data.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. Vol. 8, article id 203
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-243864DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01086-wISI: 001497884700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105006842021OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-243864DiVA, id: diva2:1966630
Available from: 2025-06-10 Created: 2025-06-10 Last updated: 2025-06-10Bibliographically approved

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Messori, Gabriele

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