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Global Mapping of Concurrent Hazards and Impacts Associated With Climate Extremes Under Climate Change
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI). Uppsala University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2032-5211
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Number of Authors: 62025 (English)In: Earth's Future, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 13, no 6, article id e2025EF006325Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate-related extreme events impose a heavy toll on humankind, and many will likely become more frequent in the future. The compound (joint) occurrence of different climate-related hazards and impacts can further exacerbate the detrimental consequences for society. By analyzing postprocessed data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, we provide a global mapping of future changes in the compound occurrence of six categories of hazards or impacts related to climate extremes. These are: river floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, tropical cyclone-induced winds and crop failures. In line with the existing literature, we find sharp increases in the occurrence of many individual hazards and impacts, notably heatwaves and wildfires. Under a medium-high emission scenario, many regions worldwide transition from chiefly experiencing a given category of hazard or impact in isolation to routinely experiencing compound hazard or impact occurrences. A similarly striking change is projected for the future recurrence of compound hazards or impacts, with many locations experiencing specific compound occurrences at least once a year for several years, or even decades, in a row. In the absence of effective global climate mitigation actions, we may thus witness a qualitative regime shift from a world dominated by individual climate-related hazards and impacts to one where compound occurrences become the norm.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. Vol. 13, no 6, article id e2025EF006325
Keywords [en]
climate change, climate extremes, compound hazards, compound impacts
National Category
Climate Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-244368DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006325ISI: 001504537200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105007637183OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-244368DiVA, id: diva2:1974381
Available from: 2025-06-23 Created: 2025-06-23 Last updated: 2025-06-23Bibliographically approved

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Messori, Gabriele

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