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A Meta-model for Integrating Explainable Forecasting with Digital Twins
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0813-9555
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4632-4815
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0870-0330
2025 (English)In: Advanced Information Systems Engineering Workshops: CAiSE 2025 Workshops, Vienna, Austria, June 16–20, 2025, Proceedings / [ed] Jānis Grabis; Yves Wautelet, Cham: Springer Nature, 2025, p. 169-180Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Digital twins are virtual replicas of their physical counterparts, providing real-time monitoring and decision-making capabilities. By integrating forecasting-based methods, the potential of digital twins can be augmented significantly, enabling them to execute advanced predictive tasks. However, with digital twins typically involving a human-in-the-loop, the need for explainability becomes crucial for understanding how and why a forecast was made. To effectively integrate explainability methods, forecasting methods, and digital twins, it is essential to define the relations between these components in a structured manner. In this work, we address this issue by providing a meta-model for the integration of explainable forecasting methods with digital twins. We evaluate our meta-model in the context of a smart building digital twin with multiple forecasting and explainability methods. The evaluation demonstrates the inherent trade-off between providing explanations and generating accurate forecasts in this context.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cham: Springer Nature, 2025. p. 169-180
Series
Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, ISSN 1865-1348, E-ISSN 1865-1356 ; 556
Keywords [en]
Digital Twin, Meta-modeling, Explainability, Forecasting
National Category
Computer Sciences
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-246112DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-94931-9_14Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105009219179ISBN: 978-3-031-94930-2 (print)ISBN: 978-3-031-94931-9 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-246112DiVA, id: diva2:1992483
Conference
37th International Conference on Advanced Information Systems Engineering (CAiSE 2025), Vienna, Austria, June 16-20, 2025
Available from: 2025-08-27 Created: 2025-08-27 Last updated: 2025-12-28Bibliographically approved

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Kreuzer, TimPapapetrou, PanagiotisZdravkovic, Jelena

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