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In the shadow of silence: Modelling missing data in the dark networks of crime and terrorists
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics. University of Melbourne, Australia.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6860-325X
Number of Authors: 32026 (English)In: Social Networks, ISSN 0378-8733, E-ISSN 1879-2111, Vol. 84, p. 147-163Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The clandestine nature of covert networks makes reliable data difficult to obtain and leads to concerns with missing data. We explore the use of network models to represent missingness mechanisms. Exponential random graph models provide a flexible way of parameterising departures from conventional missingness assumptions and data management practices. We demonstrate the effects of model specification, true network structure, and different not-at-random missingness mechanisms across six empirical covert networks. Our framework for modelling realistic missingness mechanisms investigates potential inferential pitfalls, evaluates decisions in collecting data, and offers the opportunity to incorporate non-random missingness into the estimation of network generating mechanisms.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. Vol. 84, p. 147-163
Keywords [en]
Covert networks, ERGM, Missing network data, Missingness assumptions, Missingness model, Statistical network analysis
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-247839DOI: 10.1016/j.socnet.2025.09.003Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105017047554OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-247839DiVA, id: diva2:2004951
Available from: 2025-10-08 Created: 2025-10-08 Last updated: 2025-10-08Bibliographically approved

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Koskinen, Johan

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