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Methodology for Multiparameter Evaluation of Barriers Against Proliferation of Minor Actinides
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economic History and International Relations. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7231-8662
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Number of Authors: 72024 (English)In: Nuclear Technology, ISSN 0029-5450, E-ISSN 1943-7471, Vol. 211, no 3, p. 548-569Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

There exist elements apart from uranium and plutonium that could potentially be used to construct the core of a nuclear explosive device. These belong to the so-called minor actinides (MAs), which exist innonnegligible amounts in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and are in nearly all cases not covered by international safeguards. Future reprocessing of SNF could result in significant separation of these elements, potentially leading to new proliferation concerns. In this work, a methodology for a transparent assessment of the barriers against proliferation of MAs has been developed and applied to the case of neptunium, americium, and curium separated from spent fuel from pressurized water reactors. In this methodology, openly available data and Monte Carlo simulations have been used to assess the barriers posed by a number of parameters relevant to the production of a nuclear explosive device from SNF. The evaluation shows that the properties of neptunium present low barriers to proliferation and that it should be discussed within the context of future nonproliferation treaties and possibly be placed under international safeguards. The properties of americium and curium present higher barriers to proliferation, meaning that these elements require less focus in the nonproliferation context.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 211, no 3, p. 548-569
Keywords [en]
Material attractiveness, nonproliferation, minor actinides, neptunium, proliferation resistance
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies Subatomic Physics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-248943DOI: 10.1080/00295450.2024.2342184ISI: 001249016100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85196268519OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-248943DiVA, id: diva2:2011111
Available from: 2025-11-03 Created: 2025-11-03 Last updated: 2025-11-05Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Opening the Nuclear Black Box: The Social Construction of Global Nuclear Governance
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Opening the Nuclear Black Box: The Social Construction of Global Nuclear Governance
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis offers a different approach to technology in International Security Studies (ISS). Traditional “grand theories” often treat technology as an “external variable,” a “black box,” or a “deus ex machina,” analysing its impact without sufficiently theorising it as an endogenous factor actively shaped by social and political forces. This limits ISS’s ability to develop a nuanced understanding of the mutual development of technological artefacts and policy frameworks. The thesis proposes and demonstrates the usefulness of applying the Social Construction of Technology (SCOT) approach from Science and Technology Studies (STS) to ISS. SCOT challenges technological determinism, asserting that technology is shaped by human action, social context, and negotiations among “relevant social groups” that define an artefact’s meaning and purpose (interpretive flexibility). By drawing on SCOT concepts such as technological frames and closure, the thesis offers a means to link micro-level technical practices with macro-level international security phenomena. The research, structured as a cumulative dissertation, empirically validates this idea across two key areas within a subfield of ISS: global nuclear governance, specifically nuclear security and non-proliferation. In nuclear security, applying SCOT to nuclear forensics demonstrates how the stabilisation of this discipline resulted from the alignment (closure) of often conflicting technological frames held by scientists, policymakers, and law enforcement, showing that this is a socially constructed outcome rather than purely technical development. Furthermore, analysis of attacks on nuclear installations by states reveals how the technological frames of national nuclear security regimes become vaguely defined during extraordinary circumstances, exposing gaps in governance. In nuclear non-proliferation, the thesis employs SCOT to examine the technical aspects of IAEA safeguards. A key empirical insight is that core technical benchmarks, such as the IAEA’s “significant quantity” (SQ) values (e.g., 8 kg plutonium, 25 kg highly enriched uranium), are not inherent technical truths but are socially constructed outcomes of political negotiation and stakeholder consensus (closure), often derived from documents unrelated to safeguards. The thesis shows SCOT’s policy relevance by arguing that recognising the interpretive flexibility and social construction of technical definitions enables policymakers to move beyond rigid thresholds and adopt more flexible approaches. It underscores the importance of aligning technological frames among diverse stakeholders (e.g., scientists, diplomats, and law enforcement in nuclear forensics) to foster institutional trust and ensure the sustainable operation of international organisations such as the IAEA. By incorporating the SCOT approach, this thesis broadens the conceptual toolkit available to ISS scholars, offering a more detailed understanding of technological agency within the framework of global nuclear governance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Economic History and International Relations, Stockholm University, 2025. p. 39
Keywords
Social Construction of Technology, global nuclear governance, international security studies, nuclear security, non-proliferation, nuclear forensics, IAEA safeguards
National Category
Science and Technology Studies
Research subject
International Relations
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-248952 (URN)978-91-8107-446-8 (ISBN)978-91-8107-447-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-12-19, Hörsal 9, Frescativägen 14, house D, Södra huset, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-11-26 Created: 2025-11-04 Last updated: 2025-11-18Bibliographically approved

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Fedchenko, Vitaly

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