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Simulating Submarine Reactor Fuel in Light of the AUKUS Deal
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Number of Authors: 52023 (English)In: ESARDA Bulletin - The International Journal of Nuclear Safeguards and Non-proliferation, ISSN 1977-5296, Vol. 65, p. 34-43Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This work investigates fuel properties of submarine reactor fuel from a non-proliferation and safeguards perspective in light of the deal involving Australia, the United Kingdom and United States known as AUKUS. This study investigates the isotopic composition of the spent fuel at the end of intended reactor life. The fuel in the proposed AUKUS submarine is modelled after a Virginia Class fast attack submarine, discussed as an option for Australia.

The vast majority of civil experience with plutonium production is with fuel starting at low enrichments for shorter burnups. The AUKUS fuel at the start of irradiation campaign is assumed to contain uranium enriched to between 93% and 97,3%. It is burned at high power for about 33 years before retirement. Because the fuel is mostly uranium-235 initially, there are very few thermal captures leading to production of plutonium-239. In the submarine, the majority of non-fissile captures lead to the production of uranium-236 with other capture chains that do not lead to the production of weapons grade plutonium or weapons usable uranium.

This study concludes that the final isotopic composition of the AUKUS spent fuel is no longer VHEU, but a low grade of HEU diluted largely by uranium-236 instead of uranium-238. Several kilograms of plutonium are produced but it is composed of several different plutonium isotopes with a large fraction of plutonium-238. There is little likelihood that spent AUKUS fuel will be reprocessed by any of the countries involved. But if it were reprocessed, the resulting uranium and plutonium will have very unusual isotope compositions. Resulting materials would be subject to safeguards but would not, in fact, be well-suited as fissile material for weapons purposes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2023. Vol. 65, p. 34-43
Keywords [en]
AUKUS, non-proliferation, safeguards, submarine, reactor fuel
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies Subatomic Physics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-248946DOI: 10.3011/ESARDA.IJNSNP.2023.4Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85175245888OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-248946DiVA, id: diva2:2011114
Available from: 2025-11-03 Created: 2025-11-03 Last updated: 2025-11-05Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Opening the Nuclear Black Box: The Social Construction of Global Nuclear Governance
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Opening the Nuclear Black Box: The Social Construction of Global Nuclear Governance
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis offers a different approach to technology in International Security Studies (ISS). Traditional “grand theories” often treat technology as an “external variable,” a “black box,” or a “deus ex machina,” analysing its impact without sufficiently theorising it as an endogenous factor actively shaped by social and political forces. This limits ISS’s ability to develop a nuanced understanding of the mutual development of technological artefacts and policy frameworks. The thesis proposes and demonstrates the usefulness of applying the Social Construction of Technology (SCOT) approach from Science and Technology Studies (STS) to ISS. SCOT challenges technological determinism, asserting that technology is shaped by human action, social context, and negotiations among “relevant social groups” that define an artefact’s meaning and purpose (interpretive flexibility). By drawing on SCOT concepts such as technological frames and closure, the thesis offers a means to link micro-level technical practices with macro-level international security phenomena. The research, structured as a cumulative dissertation, empirically validates this idea across two key areas within a subfield of ISS: global nuclear governance, specifically nuclear security and non-proliferation. In nuclear security, applying SCOT to nuclear forensics demonstrates how the stabilisation of this discipline resulted from the alignment (closure) of often conflicting technological frames held by scientists, policymakers, and law enforcement, showing that this is a socially constructed outcome rather than purely technical development. Furthermore, analysis of attacks on nuclear installations by states reveals how the technological frames of national nuclear security regimes become vaguely defined during extraordinary circumstances, exposing gaps in governance. In nuclear non-proliferation, the thesis employs SCOT to examine the technical aspects of IAEA safeguards. A key empirical insight is that core technical benchmarks, such as the IAEA’s “significant quantity” (SQ) values (e.g., 8 kg plutonium, 25 kg highly enriched uranium), are not inherent technical truths but are socially constructed outcomes of political negotiation and stakeholder consensus (closure), often derived from documents unrelated to safeguards. The thesis shows SCOT’s policy relevance by arguing that recognising the interpretive flexibility and social construction of technical definitions enables policymakers to move beyond rigid thresholds and adopt more flexible approaches. It underscores the importance of aligning technological frames among diverse stakeholders (e.g., scientists, diplomats, and law enforcement in nuclear forensics) to foster institutional trust and ensure the sustainable operation of international organisations such as the IAEA. By incorporating the SCOT approach, this thesis broadens the conceptual toolkit available to ISS scholars, offering a more detailed understanding of technological agency within the framework of global nuclear governance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Economic History and International Relations, Stockholm University, 2025. p. 39
Keywords
Social Construction of Technology, global nuclear governance, international security studies, nuclear security, non-proliferation, nuclear forensics, IAEA safeguards
National Category
Science and Technology Studies
Research subject
International Relations
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-248952 (URN)978-91-8107-446-8 (ISBN)978-91-8107-447-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-12-19, Hörsal 9, Frescativägen 14, house D, Södra huset, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-11-26 Created: 2025-11-04 Last updated: 2025-11-18Bibliographically approved

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