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Plutonium Production under Uranium Constraint
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economic History and International Relations. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
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Number of Authors: 72023 (English)In: Science and Global Security, ISSN 0892-9882, E-ISSN 1547-7800, Vol. 31, no 3, p. 115-136Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Production rates of fissile materials are often used to independently assess the number of nuclear warheads a state may possess. One key constraint of a plutonium-based nuclear weapons program is the availability of natural uranium, where a shortage of uranium will constrain plutonium production in the fuel cycle. Recycling of the reprocessed uranium can be used to mitigate such a shortage. Furthermore, since military reactors operate in short cycles to ensure that the plutonium is weapon-grade, it may be possible to operate them using slightly depleted uranium, provided that there are sufficient reactivity margins. Using slightly depleted or recycled uranium, the plutonium production can increase by a factor 2–5 as compared to a once-through scenario, for the same input of natural uranium. For future assessments of a state’s plutonium production, a uranium constraint should only be considered if there is clear evidence that no nuclear fuel cycle involving uranium recycling is implemented, or if evidence exists that the recycling is insufficient to mitigate the constraint.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. Vol. 31, no 3, p. 115-136
Keywords [en]
Fuel cycle, plutonium production, uranium recycling, reactor modelling, slightly depleted uranium
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies Radiology and Medical Imaging
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-248949DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2023.2293531ISI: 001131798400001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85180458916OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-248949DiVA, id: diva2:2011117
Available from: 2025-11-03 Created: 2025-11-03 Last updated: 2025-11-05Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Opening the Nuclear Black Box: The Social Construction of Global Nuclear Governance
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Opening the Nuclear Black Box: The Social Construction of Global Nuclear Governance
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis offers a different approach to technology in International Security Studies (ISS). Traditional “grand theories” often treat technology as an “external variable,” a “black box,” or a “deus ex machina,” analysing its impact without sufficiently theorising it as an endogenous factor actively shaped by social and political forces. This limits ISS’s ability to develop a nuanced understanding of the mutual development of technological artefacts and policy frameworks. The thesis proposes and demonstrates the usefulness of applying the Social Construction of Technology (SCOT) approach from Science and Technology Studies (STS) to ISS. SCOT challenges technological determinism, asserting that technology is shaped by human action, social context, and negotiations among “relevant social groups” that define an artefact’s meaning and purpose (interpretive flexibility). By drawing on SCOT concepts such as technological frames and closure, the thesis offers a means to link micro-level technical practices with macro-level international security phenomena. The research, structured as a cumulative dissertation, empirically validates this idea across two key areas within a subfield of ISS: global nuclear governance, specifically nuclear security and non-proliferation. In nuclear security, applying SCOT to nuclear forensics demonstrates how the stabilisation of this discipline resulted from the alignment (closure) of often conflicting technological frames held by scientists, policymakers, and law enforcement, showing that this is a socially constructed outcome rather than purely technical development. Furthermore, analysis of attacks on nuclear installations by states reveals how the technological frames of national nuclear security regimes become vaguely defined during extraordinary circumstances, exposing gaps in governance. In nuclear non-proliferation, the thesis employs SCOT to examine the technical aspects of IAEA safeguards. A key empirical insight is that core technical benchmarks, such as the IAEA’s “significant quantity” (SQ) values (e.g., 8 kg plutonium, 25 kg highly enriched uranium), are not inherent technical truths but are socially constructed outcomes of political negotiation and stakeholder consensus (closure), often derived from documents unrelated to safeguards. The thesis shows SCOT’s policy relevance by arguing that recognising the interpretive flexibility and social construction of technical definitions enables policymakers to move beyond rigid thresholds and adopt more flexible approaches. It underscores the importance of aligning technological frames among diverse stakeholders (e.g., scientists, diplomats, and law enforcement in nuclear forensics) to foster institutional trust and ensure the sustainable operation of international organisations such as the IAEA. By incorporating the SCOT approach, this thesis broadens the conceptual toolkit available to ISS scholars, offering a more detailed understanding of technological agency within the framework of global nuclear governance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Economic History and International Relations, Stockholm University, 2025. p. 39
Keywords
Social Construction of Technology, global nuclear governance, international security studies, nuclear security, non-proliferation, nuclear forensics, IAEA safeguards
National Category
Science and Technology Studies
Research subject
International Relations
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-248952 (URN)978-91-8107-446-8 (ISBN)978-91-8107-447-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2025-12-19, Hörsal 9, Frescativägen 14, house D, Södra huset, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
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Supervisors
Available from: 2025-11-26 Created: 2025-11-04 Last updated: 2025-11-18Bibliographically approved

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Fedchenko, Vitaly

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