CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Stochastic optimal control and stopping, games and time inconsistency
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis contributes to the field of stochastic optimisation considering a version of a dividend problem, a stochastic differential game with incomplete information, as well as game-theoretic approaches to time-inconsistent stopping and control. The content of this thesis is based upon four papers.

Paper I considers a game theoretic approach to a time-inconsistent stopping problem, where the time-inconsistency is due to non-exponential discounting. We introduce a novel class of mixed stopping strategies and provide a verification theorem. Furthermore, we consider an example, where there is no equilibrium when using only pure stopping times. In this case we are able to construct an equilibrium in the class of mixed stopping times.

Paper II considers a continuous time stochastic controller stopper game with incomplete information. The stopper can be seen as owner of an asset and a controller as the manager who is either effective or non-effective. The manager earns a salary paid by the owner. An effective manager can choose to exert effort at a cost in order to increase the drift of the asset while a non-effective manager cannot act. The owner can choose to stop the game at any time based on observations of the movement of the asset. The owner is not able to observe directly whether the manager is effective or non-effective, making this a game of incomplete information. We derive a Nash equilibrium to this game, given as a threshold solution depending on the conditional probability that the manager is effective.

Paper III considers a time-inconsistent singular stochastic control problem, where the time-inconsistency is due to non-exponential discounting. We introduce a new class of "mild" threshold controls, which are given by an exploding rate that generates an inaccessible boundary for the underlying diffusion. These "mild" controls stand in contrast to the "strong" threshold controls that have been considered previously and amount to a Skorokhod reflection at an upper boundary. We provide an appropriate equilibrium condition for these controls as well as a verification theorem. Furthermore we provide an example, where no equilibrium exist if we only consider "strong" threshold strategies. We are, however able to find an equilibrium when considering "mild" threshold control strategies.

Paper IV considers a dividend problem with ruin at zero surplus or if the surplus spends too long time below a certain threshold of distress. We completely solve the problem considering three different cases. If the distress threshold is small or large the optimal control results in paying out dividends above a certain threshold. If the distress threshold takes intermediate values, the optimal control results in paying out dividends in two separated regions.

Collectively, these results advance the theory for optimal stochastic control and stopping, by enriching the literature with new problems, as well as presenting solution structures that have not been considered previously.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University , 2026. , p. 44
Keywords [en]
Stochastic optimal control, Stochastic optimal stopping, Stochastic differential games, Time-inconsistency
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-251383ISBN: 978-91-8107-492-5 (print)ISBN: 978-91-8107-493-2 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-251383DiVA, id: diva2:2029899
Public defence
2026-03-06, auditorium 16, House 2, Albanovägen 18, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-02-11 Created: 2026-01-19 Last updated: 2026-01-30Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Local Time Pushed Mixed Equilibrium Strategies for Time-Inconsistent Stopping Problems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Local Time Pushed Mixed Equilibrium Strategies for Time-Inconsistent Stopping Problems
2024 (English)In: SIAM Journal of Control and Optimization, ISSN 0363-0129, E-ISSN 1095-7138, Vol. 62, no 2, p. 1261-1290Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We consider the game-theoretic approach to time-inconsistent stopping of a onedimensional diffusion where the time-inconsistency is due to the presence of a nonexponential (weighted) discount function. In particular, we study (weak) equilibria for this problem in a novel class of mixed (i.e., randomized) stopping times based on a local time construction of the stopping intensity. For a general formulation of the problem we provide a verification theorem giving sufficient conditions for mixed (and pure) equilibria in terms of a set of variational inequalities, including a smooth fit condition. We apply the theory to prove the existence of (mixed) equilibria in a recently studied real options problem in which no pure equilibria exist.

Keywords
time -inconsistent stopping, randomized/mixed stopping times, stochastic dynamic
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-228601 (URN)10.1137/22M1506651 (DOI)001203216700001 ()2-s2.0-85190817637 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2024-04-23 Created: 2024-04-23 Last updated: 2026-01-19Bibliographically approved
2. A controller-stopper-game with hidden controller type
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A controller-stopper-game with hidden controller type
2024 (English)In: Stochastic Processes and their Applications, ISSN 0304-4149, E-ISSN 1879-209X, Vol. 173, article id 104361Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We consider a continuous time stochastic dynamic game between a stopper (the owner of an asset) and a controller (the manager ) who is either effective or non -effective. An effective manager can exert high or low effort which corresponds to a high or a low positive drift for the accumulated income of the owner with random noise in terms of Brownian motion. The manager earns a salary until the owner stops the game. A non -effective manager cannot act but receives a salary. We find a threshold (Nash) equilibrium using stochastic filtering methods in a weak formulation.

National Category
Control Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-231225 (URN)10.1016/j.spa.2024.104361 (DOI)001236846900001 ()2-s2.0-85191461406 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2024-06-18 Created: 2024-06-18 Last updated: 2026-01-19Bibliographically approved
3. Time-inconsistent singular control problems: Reflection and Absolutely continuous controls with exploding rates
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Time-inconsistent singular control problems: Reflection and Absolutely continuous controls with exploding rates
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Mathematical sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-251340 (URN)
Available from: 2026-01-19 Created: 2026-01-19 Last updated: 2026-01-19
4. Outrunning the Omega Clock: A Singular Control Problem for Dividend Optimisation with Ruin and Time-in-Distress Default
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Outrunning the Omega Clock: A Singular Control Problem for Dividend Optimisation with Ruin and Time-in-Distress Default
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Mathematical sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-251381 (URN)10.48550/arXiv.2601.21705 (DOI)
Note

This paper extends the classical dividend problem by incorporating a novel, path-dependent mechanism of firm default. In the traditional framework, ruin occurs when the surplus process first reaches zero. In contrast, default in our model may also arise when the surplus spends an excessive amount of time below a distress threshold, even without ever hitting zero. This occupation-time-based default criterion captures financial distress more realistically, as prolonged periods of low liquidity or capitalisation may trigger regulatory intervention or operational failure. The resulting optimisation problem is formulated as a new singular stochastic control problem with discontinuous state-dependent discounting and killing. We provide a complete analytical solution via a bespoke sequential guess-and-verify method and identify three distinct classes of optimal dividend strategies corresponding to different parameter regimes of the dual-ruin structure. Notably, for certain distress thresholds, the optimal policy features disconnected action and inaction regions. We further show that, unlike in the classical dividend problem, higher effective discounting induced by occupation time below a distress level can lead to delayed, rather than earlier, dividend payments. 

Available from: 2026-01-19 Created: 2026-01-19 Last updated: 2026-03-09

Open Access in DiVA

Stochastic optimal control and stopping, games and time inconsistency(973 kB)50 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 973 kBChecksum SHA-512
837cde7f8cb520555e226a6efbec83880c5fda57f67833c32bdeabb9b5197930c9467e97fecc7b29502c11263310abad7ecd568daec475615cb9726869f75744
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Authority records

Bodnariu, Andi

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Bodnariu, Andi
By organisation
Department of Mathematics
Probability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

isbn
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

isbn
urn-nbn
Total: 3835 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf