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Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Overcoming a Barrier to Projecting Near-Term Climate Evolution and Risk
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9055-5330
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5940-2114
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9085-2319
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Number of Authors: 412026 (English)In: AGU Advances, E-ISSN 2576-604X, Vol. 7, no 1, article id e2025AV001872Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are a major source of uncertainty in climate science, critically affecting our ability to project near-term climate evolution and assess societal risks. These interactions influence effective radiative forcing, cloud dynamics, and precipitation patterns, yet remain insufficiently constrained due to limitations in observations, modeling, and process understanding. This uncertainty hampers robust policy advice across multiple domains—from estimating remaining carbon budgets and climate sensitivity, to anticipating regional extreme events and evaluating climate interventions such as solar radiation modification. In many cases, the influence of ACI is either underappreciated or excluded from decision-making frameworks due to its complexity and lack of quantification. This perspective outlines a path forward to overcome these barriers by leveraging emerging opportunities in satellite remote sensing, ground-based and airborne observations, high-resolution climate modeling, and machine learning. We identify key areas where rapid progress is feasible, including improved retrievals of cloud microphysical properties, better representation of natural aerosols in a warming world, and enhanced integration of observational and modeling communities. Even as anthropogenic aerosol and its impacts on clouds is reducing owing to emissions controls, addressing ACI uncertainties remains essential for refining climate projections, supporting effective mitigation and adaptation strategies, and delivering actionable science to policymakers in a rapidly changing climate system.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. Vol. 7, no 1, article id e2025AV001872
Keywords [en]
Aerosol-cloud interactions, climate change impacts, extreme events, radiative forcing, roadmap
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-253277DOI: 10.1029/2025AV001872ISI: 001692487900001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105029759131OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-253277DiVA, id: diva2:2045158
Available from: 2026-03-11 Created: 2026-03-11 Last updated: 2026-03-11Bibliographically approved

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Blichner, SaraEkman, Annica M. L.Riipinen, IlonaZieger, Paul

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Department of Environmental ScienceThe Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI)Department of Meteorology
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