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Markets in the dark: Insider Trading and Measurement Bias
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School.
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis contains three papers on market microstructure. The papers study the measurement of trading costs, the enforcement of insider trading regulation, and corporate insiders’ choice of trading venue. A common thread is how information is reflected in market data and how that data is used by researchers, regulators, and market participants.

Article I (with Björn Hagströmer) studies bias in the effective bid–ask spread. Standard algorithms assume that the relevant quote always precedes the trade by a fixed positive lag. We show that relative trade latency is stochastic and can be negative. Using data from the London Stock Exchange, we find that the Lee–Ready algorithm overstates the midpoint-based effective spread by 8.4% and the depth-weighted effective spread by about 18%. We introduce a new matching algorithm that eliminates the bias.

Article II studies the full enforcement chain for illegal insider trading, from suspicion to prosecution. Using proprietary data on all suspicious transaction and order reports filed with the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority between 2016 and 2019, I model enforcement as a three-step process. Only 2.12% of suspected individuals are prosecuted. Market-based signals drive the initial detection step. The suspect’s connection to the firm and the value of the information determine forwarding and prosecution.

Article III (with Lars L. Nordén) examines where corporate insiders trade when the same stock is available on exchanges and dark markets. Using data on Swedish insider transactions from 2016 to 2024, we find that when insiders are buying, they are more likely to trade on dark markets when engaging in illegal activities, but less inclined to do so when they are informed. Given insiders’ endogenous venue selection, buying on dark markets negatively impacts abnormal returns. When insiders are selling, their venue choice is unrelated to whether they are informed or engage in illegal activities, and trading on dark markets does not significantly affect abnormal returns.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Business School, Stockholm University , 2026. , p. 184
Keywords [en]
Trade-Quote Matching, Liquidity Measurement, Effective Spread, Insider trading, Market fragmentation, Venue choice, Abnormal Return, Suspected Insider Trading, Insider Trading, Inside Information, Proxies of Asymmetric Information, Market Integrity
National Category
Business Administration Social Sciences Economics and Business
Research subject
Finance
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-253184ISBN: 978-91-8107-546-5 (print)ISBN: 978-91-8107-547-2 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-253184DiVA, id: diva2:2046184
Public defence
2026-04-30, ALB Hörsal 1 / ALB Auditorium 1, Albanovägen 28, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-04-07 Created: 2026-03-16 Last updated: 2026-03-25Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Bias in Execution Cost Measures
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bias in Execution Cost Measures
2026 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

We show that conventional trade-quote matching rules lead to overestimated effective bid–ask spreads. Using London Stock Exchange data where the true benchmark is observed, we find that the Lee–Ready algorithm overstates the midpoint-based effective spread by about 8% and the depthweighted effective spread by about 18%. The bias is primarily a midpoint problem, not a tradedirection problem: restricting to trades that Lee–Ready signs correctly still leaves the effective spread overstated by roughly 16%. The overestimation arises because relative trade latency is stochastic and feed-specific rather than a fixed lag. A full-information matching procedure that allows the matched quote to appear before or after the trade reduces the bias to near zero in both exchange and vendor data.

Keywords
Trade-Quote Matching, Liquidity Measurement, Effective Spread
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-253178 (URN)
Available from: 2026-03-09 Created: 2026-03-09 Last updated: 2026-03-16
2. From suspected to prosecuted: Investigating insider trading
Open this publication in new window or tab >>From suspected to prosecuted: Investigating insider trading
2025 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper examines the progression from suspicion to prosecution of illegal insider trading, using proprietary data of broker and exchange reports. Only 2% of suspects are prosecuted. Thus, public datasets limited to prosecutions capture only a narrow slice of enforcement. Reports are more likely when there are signs of information leakage, and when the information is more valuable, but less likely for illiquid stocks. Regulators and prosecutors focus on the suspect’s ties to the firm, corroboration from multiple reports, and trading profits. Consistent with informed trading, suspected insider trading accounts for a significant share of pre-announcement abnormal returns and is associated with higher price impact and adverse selection.

Keywords
suspected insider trading, insider trading, inside information, proxies of asymmetric information, market integrity
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-253179 (URN)
Available from: 2026-03-09 Created: 2026-03-09 Last updated: 2026-03-16
3. Bright Light, Dark Room: Where do Corporate Insiders Trade?
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bright Light, Dark Room: Where do Corporate Insiders Trade?
2025 (English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In the fragmented equity market landscape, corporate insiders may conceal high-quality information or engage in illegal activities by trading on dark markets. While existing literature extensively covers the timing and methods of insider trading, little attention is given to the specific venues utilized by corporate insiders. We analyze where corporate insiders trade and evaluate the impact of their venue choice on abnormal returns. We find that when insiders are buying, they are more likely to trade on dark markets when engaging in illegal activities, but less inclined to do so when they are informed. Given insiders' endogenous venue selection, buying on dark markets negatively impacts abnormal returns. When insiders are selling, their venue choice is unrelated to whether they are informed or engage in illegal activities, and trading on dark markets does not significantly affect abnormal returns.

Keywords
Insider trading, market fragmentation, venue choice, abnormal return
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-253180 (URN)
Available from: 2026-03-09 Created: 2026-03-09 Last updated: 2026-03-16

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Hübbert, Alexander

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67891011129 of 17
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