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The Evolution of Opposition Coordination under Competitive Authoritarianism: The Moderator Party Paradox in Turkey
Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Asian and Middle Eastern studies.ORCID iD: 0009-0009-8439-5356
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This article examines the evolution of opposition coordination in Turkey under the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) competitive authoritarian rule. Moving beyond single-election snapshots, it investigates why the Republican People’s Party (CHP) shifted from ad hoc bargains to institutionalized coalitions and analyses the consequences for political agency and regime resilience. Drawing on a within-case comparative design across four electoral cycles, the research utilizes elite interviews, participant observation, and archival data. It develops a typology of tenuous versus strong alliances based on internal cohesion, narrative consistency, and strategic adaptability. Findings indicate that while coordination became structurally indispensable under the 50%+1 presidential threshold, it pushed the CHP into a ‘moderator party’ role. This role preserved coalition unity but diluted programmatic distinctiveness and overstretched organisational resources. This ‘moderator party paradox’ explains why unprecedented coordination failed to generate sufficient democratic leverage, offering broader insights into the limits of opposition alliances in hybrid regimes.

Keywords [en]
opposition coordination, competitive authoritarianism, political parties, elections, pre-electoral alliances, Turkey
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-254106OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-254106DiVA, id: diva2:2051758
Available from: 2026-04-09 Created: 2026-04-09 Last updated: 2026-04-10Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. The Role of the Opposition in Autocratisation: The Case of Turkey's Republican People’s Party (CHP)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Role of the Opposition in Autocratisation: The Case of Turkey's Republican People’s Party (CHP)
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This dissertation explores the role of opposition parties in autocratisation, focusing on Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). By examining the CHP during the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule from 2002 to 2023, it reveals the complex roles and strategies of opposition actors. It challenges the binary view of opposition success or failure, suggesting that opposition parties like the CHP are dynamic entities within autocratic regimes. They can both combat and contribute to autocratisation through their discourse, policy decisions, and actions. By analysing the CHP’s evolving strategies, alliances, and discourse, the research underscores the opposition’s pivotal role in shaping Turkey’s political landscape. Employing a diverse methodology, including 20 elite interviews, 10 focus group discussions with 60 participants, archival research, and participant observation, the thesis introduces two new concepts: rigid opposition and flexible opposition. Initially, the CHP maintained a rigid opposition characterised by identity-based polarisation. However, over time, the party shifted to a more flexible approach, forging strategic alliances and adopting an inclusive discourse. This transformation underscores the adaptable nature of opposition strategies. However, the dissertation also notes that, while flexibility is essential in countering autocratisation, it also poses a risk of diluting party identity. Additionally, the dissertation examines the evolution of the CHP’s discourse. By comparing election campaigns and protests, the study shows how the CHP’s shift from an exclusionary to an inclusive discourse challenged the ruling AKP’s polarising populist narrative, while the previous exclusionary approach contributed to political polarisation. This inclusive discourse played a crucial role in the CHP’s success in the 2019 local elections. Furthermore, the thesis investigates the CHP’s strategic alliances and opposition coordination, probing the motivations and challenges encountered by CHP political elites. It identifies the primary challenges encountered by the CHP in maintaining cohesive opposition alliances and elucidates how these challenges affect the process of autocratisation in Turkey.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Asian and Middle Eastern studies, Stockholm University, 2026
Keywords
Turkey, opposition, autocratisation, election, democratic erosion, political parties, CHP, hybrid regimes, competitive authoritarianism
National Category
Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies)
Research subject
Middle Eastern Languages and Cultures
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-254107 (URN)978-91-8107-594-6 (ISBN)978-91-8107-595-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-05-28, Sal F413, Södra huset F, vån 4, Universitetsvägen 10 F, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-05-05 Created: 2026-04-09 Last updated: 2026-04-21Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
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