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Thin Policy Mixes, Thick Challenges: EU Carbon Pricing and National Decarbonisation of Energy-Intensive Industries
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Decarbonising energy-intensive industries (EIIs) is a major challenge for EU climate governance. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the flagship instrument for industrial mitigation, but its effectiveness as a stand-alone policy tool remains contested. Drawing on policy mix theory, this article examines whether increases in ETS stringency (1) thin national policy mixes, (2) stimulate the adoption of incentive-based instruments, and (3) reduce industrial CO₂ emissions intensity. Using a heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences design that treats ETS stringency as a continuously increasing dose across four successive phase transitions, it analyses policy mixes and emissions trajectories across EU member states and never-treated control countries from 1995 to 2022. The results suggest that the EU ETS, as implemented across the phases examined, has neither catalysed complementary national policy responses nor generated measurable abatement effects at the national level. No evidence is found that increasing ETS stringency stimulated the adoption of incentive-based instruments. Industrial carbon intensity trended upward rather than downward relative to control countries across most of the study period, though tentative signs of an emerging abatement effect are visible in the most recent years. There is also directional evidence of a gradual thinning of national policy instrument portfolios, though this pattern varies across phases and should be treated with caution. These findings highlight the limits of a predominantly market-based approach to industrial decarbonisation and underscore the importance of complementary national policy frameworks that can work alongside - rather than be displaced by - EU-level carbon pricing.

Keywords [en]
European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), Policy mixes, Energy-intensive industries, Climate governance, Carbon Pricing
National Category
Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies)
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-254263OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-254263DiVA, id: diva2:2053618
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental ResearchAvailable from: 2026-04-17 Created: 2026-04-17 Last updated: 2026-04-17
In thesis
1. The Politics of Industrial Decarbonisation: Explaining Variation in National Policies for Decarbonising Energy-Intensive Industries
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Politics of Industrial Decarbonisation: Explaining Variation in National Policies for Decarbonising Energy-Intensive Industries
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Decarbonising energy-intensive industries (EIIs) represents one of the most challenging dimensions of the low-carbon transition. Emissions from industries such as steel, cement, and chemicals remain difficult to reduce due to technological constraints, high capital intensity, and exposure to international competition. Despite their central importance for achieving climate neutrality, we lack systematic knowledge about how governments design policies targeting these sectors and why such policies vary across countries and over time.

This dissertation addresses this gap by examining the political and institutional drivers of EII decarbonisation policies and their implications for emissions outcomes. Bringing together insights from climate politics and political economy, the dissertation develops a theoretical framework in which variation in policy output and policy instrument choice is shaped by economic institutions, partisan politics, and supranational governance. Empirically, the dissertation adopts a comparative approach and draws on an original dataset of EII decarbonisation policies across advanced economies, complemented by analyses of European Union climate policy and firm-level emissions data from Sweden.

Across four papers, the dissertation generates three main findings. First, it provides the first comprehensive, longitudinal, cross-national analysis of policies targeting EIIs, demonstrating that governments overwhelmingly rely on “soft” policy instruments—such as subsidies, voluntary agreements, and informational tools—rather than more coercive “hard” instruments such as regulations and taxes. While the overall number of policies has increased over time, the dominance of soft instruments remains stable. Second, the dissertation shows that variation in EII decarbonisation policies is primarily shaped by domestic institutional configurations. Corporatist economies are associated with higher levels of policy output and a greater use of hard policy instruments, while left-leaning governments are linked to more extensive and interventionist policy frameworks. In contrast, supranational governance through the EU Emissions Trading System has a lesser effect on national policy output or instrument choice. Third, the dissertation finds limited evidence that these political and institutional dynamics translate into measurable emission reductions. Neither EU carbon pricing nor partisan shifts in publicly owned energy firms are systematically associated with declining emissions trajectories, suggesting that decarbonisation outcomes in EIIs are shaped by constraints that extend beyond short-term political dynamics.

Taken together, the dissertation demonstrates that while governments play a central role in designing policies for industrial decarbonisation, these policies are structured by domestic institutions and do not automatically translate into emissions reductions. By providing the first systematic comparative analysis of EII decarbonisation policies, the dissertation contributes to research on climate governance and offers new insights into the political economy of industrial transformation.

 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Political Science, Stockholm University, 2026. p. 66
Series
Stockholm studies in politics, ISSN 0346-6620 ; 206
Keywords
Decarbonisation, Energy Intensive Industries, Policy Instruments, Political Economy, Comparative Climate Politics
National Category
Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies)
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-254266 (URN)978-91-8107-628-8 (ISBN)978-91-8107-629-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-06-05, Hörsal 11, hus F, Universitetsvägen 10 F, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Available from: 2026-05-11 Created: 2026-04-17 Last updated: 2026-05-04Bibliographically approved

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