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The Politics of Industrial Decarbonisation: Explaining Variation in National Policies for Decarbonising Energy-Intensive Industries
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Decarbonising energy-intensive industries (EIIs) represents one of the most challenging dimensions of the low-carbon transition. Emissions from industries such as steel, cement, and chemicals remain difficult to reduce due to technological constraints, high capital intensity, and exposure to international competition. Despite their central importance for achieving climate neutrality, we lack systematic knowledge about how governments design policies targeting these sectors and why such policies vary across countries and over time.

This dissertation addresses this gap by examining the political and institutional drivers of EII decarbonisation policies and their implications for emissions outcomes. Bringing together insights from climate politics and political economy, the dissertation develops a theoretical framework in which variation in policy output and policy instrument choice is shaped by economic institutions, partisan politics, and supranational governance. Empirically, the dissertation adopts a comparative approach and draws on an original dataset of EII decarbonisation policies across advanced economies, complemented by analyses of European Union climate policy and firm-level emissions data from Sweden.

Across four papers, the dissertation generates three main findings. First, it provides the first comprehensive, longitudinal, cross-national analysis of policies targeting EIIs, demonstrating that governments overwhelmingly rely on “soft” policy instruments—such as subsidies, voluntary agreements, and informational tools—rather than more coercive “hard” instruments such as regulations and taxes. While the overall number of policies has increased over time, the dominance of soft instruments remains stable. Second, the dissertation shows that variation in EII decarbonisation policies is primarily shaped by domestic institutional configurations. Corporatist economies are associated with higher levels of policy output and a greater use of hard policy instruments, while left-leaning governments are linked to more extensive and interventionist policy frameworks. In contrast, supranational governance through the EU Emissions Trading System has a lesser effect on national policy output or instrument choice. Third, the dissertation finds limited evidence that these political and institutional dynamics translate into measurable emission reductions. Neither EU carbon pricing nor partisan shifts in publicly owned energy firms are systematically associated with declining emissions trajectories, suggesting that decarbonisation outcomes in EIIs are shaped by constraints that extend beyond short-term political dynamics.

Taken together, the dissertation demonstrates that while governments play a central role in designing policies for industrial decarbonisation, these policies are structured by domestic institutions and do not automatically translate into emissions reductions. By providing the first systematic comparative analysis of EII decarbonisation policies, the dissertation contributes to research on climate governance and offers new insights into the political economy of industrial transformation.

 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Political Science, Stockholm University , 2026. , p. 66
Series
Stockholm studies in politics, ISSN 0346-6620 ; 206
Keywords [en]
Decarbonisation, Energy Intensive Industries, Policy Instruments, Political Economy, Comparative Climate Politics
National Category
Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies)
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-254266ISBN: 978-91-8107-628-8 (print)ISBN: 978-91-8107-629-5 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-254266DiVA, id: diva2:2053620
Public defence
2026-06-05, Hörsal 11, hus F, Universitetsvägen 10 F, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental ResearchAvailable from: 2026-05-11 Created: 2026-04-17 Last updated: 2026-05-04Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Steering Industrial Decarbonisation: Explaining OECD Policy Variation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Steering Industrial Decarbonisation: Explaining OECD Policy Variation
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The ongoing rise in CO2 emissions driven by energy-intensive industries highlights the urgent need for targeted policy interventions, with national strategies playing a crucial role in the low-carbon transition. However, the factors that shape the ambition of industrial decarbonisation policies remain poorly understood. Previous research suggests that this sector presents significant challenges for policymakers. In this study I argue that a deeper understanding of the state-industry dynamics that influence policymaking is essential to explain the variation in policy ambition across countries. By analysing the policy output of 30 OECD countries from 1990 to 2022, the findings reveal that corporatism and left-leaning governments positively influences policy output - especially in the case of hard policies. Together, the results highlight the independent roles of institutional coordination and partisan orientation in shaping industrial climate governance.

Keywords
Decarbonisation, Energy Intensive Industry, Climate Politics, Comparative Political Economy
National Category
Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies)
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-254262 (URN)
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Available from: 2026-04-17 Created: 2026-04-17 Last updated: 2026-04-17
2. Thin Policy Mixes, Thick Challenges: EU Carbon Pricing and National Decarbonisation of Energy-Intensive Industries
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Thin Policy Mixes, Thick Challenges: EU Carbon Pricing and National Decarbonisation of Energy-Intensive Industries
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Decarbonising energy-intensive industries (EIIs) is a major challenge for EU climate governance. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the flagship instrument for industrial mitigation, but its effectiveness as a stand-alone policy tool remains contested. Drawing on policy mix theory, this article examines whether increases in ETS stringency (1) thin national policy mixes, (2) stimulate the adoption of incentive-based instruments, and (3) reduce industrial CO₂ emissions intensity. Using a heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences design that treats ETS stringency as a continuously increasing dose across four successive phase transitions, it analyses policy mixes and emissions trajectories across EU member states and never-treated control countries from 1995 to 2022. The results suggest that the EU ETS, as implemented across the phases examined, has neither catalysed complementary national policy responses nor generated measurable abatement effects at the national level. No evidence is found that increasing ETS stringency stimulated the adoption of incentive-based instruments. Industrial carbon intensity trended upward rather than downward relative to control countries across most of the study period, though tentative signs of an emerging abatement effect are visible in the most recent years. There is also directional evidence of a gradual thinning of national policy instrument portfolios, though this pattern varies across phases and should be treated with caution. These findings highlight the limits of a predominantly market-based approach to industrial decarbonisation and underscore the importance of complementary national policy frameworks that can work alongside - rather than be displaced by - EU-level carbon pricing.

Keywords
European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), Policy mixes, Energy-intensive industries, Climate governance, Carbon Pricing
National Category
Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies)
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-254263 (URN)
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Available from: 2026-04-17 Created: 2026-04-17 Last updated: 2026-04-17
3. Industry actors influence on policymaking in democratic states: The energy intensive industries
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Industry actors influence on policymaking in democratic states: The energy intensive industries
2024 (English)In: Handbook on Lobbying and Public Policy / [ed] David Coen; Alexander Katsaitis, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2024, p. 420-431Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This chapter explores the influence of industry actors on decarbonisation policymaking. First, an introduction to the challenges of decarbonising the energy intensive industries is provided. This is followed by a discussion of the two main arguments presented in this chapter, namely that industry actors utilise different strategies to protect carbon-dependence in different political-economic systems and that organisational ties between industry and political parties protect the status quo. The first argument draws from the political economy literature and demonstrates that industry actors in corporatist states have institutionalised access to decision-making and can therefore influence policymaking through dialogue and consultation. Industry actors in pluralist states, on the other hand, rely more on political allies and public lobbying to shape policies. The second argument, which draws from the comparative climate politics literature, illustrates how the close ties between industry actors and political parties on both the left and right side of the political spectrum result in the protection of industry interests. Governments on both sides of the spectrum are found to avoid regulatory policies and provide protective measures which reinforces carbon-dependence. Lastly, the chapter discusses concrete steps which have been taken to decarbonise the energy intensive industries. On the national level, states have introduced decarbonisation roadmaps and green industrial policies to steer the sector. On the global level, international agreements have been highlighted as useful tools to guide policymakers in the decarbonisation of the energy intensive industries.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Edward Elgar Publishing, 2024
Keywords
Decarbonisation, Energy intensive industries, Government ideology, Policymaking, Political economic system
National Category
Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-241304 (URN)10.4337/9781800884717.00043 (DOI)001378209400034 ()2-s2.0-85218024992 (Scopus ID)9781800884700 (ISBN)
Available from: 2025-03-27 Created: 2025-03-27 Last updated: 2026-05-05Bibliographically approved
4. Who Governs the Green Transition? Partisan Compositions and Emissions in Municipally Owned Firms
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Who Governs the Green Transition? Partisan Compositions and Emissions in Municipally Owned Firms
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Municipal governments play an increasingly important role in climate governance, often delivering energy services through municipally owned companies. Yet relatively little is known about how political dynamics within local governments shape the environmental performance of these organisations. This article examines whether shifts in the partisan composition of municipal governments influence emissions trajectories in publicly owned energy firms. Focusing on Sweden’s electricity and district heating sector - where municipal ownership remains widespread - the study analyses a firm-level panel dataset covering 112 installations across 96 municipalities between 2011 and 2023. The analysis exploits variation in municipal governing coalitions across electoral cycles to examine whether changes in political control are associated with changes in firm-level CO₂ emissions. The results provide little evidence that either the partisan composition of municipal governments or shifts in governing coalitions systematically affect emissions trajectories. These findings contrast with existing research linking partisan politics to climate policy ambition and suggest that emissions outcomes in infrastructure-intensive sectors may be shaped more strongly by technological, organisational, and institutional constraints than by short-term political turnover. The article contributes to research on public ownership, subnational climate governance, and the political economy of decarbonisation.

Keywords
Municipally Owned Companies; Partisan politics; Subnational climate governance; Public ownership; Electricity and District Heating
National Category
Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies)
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-254264 (URN)
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Available from: 2026-04-17 Created: 2026-04-17 Last updated: 2026-04-17

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