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Mombera Rising: Using the Nature Futures Framework to Amplify Novel Imaginaries in Malawi
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1616-2322
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University;University of the Witwatersrand.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4996-7234
Linköping University;Linköping University.
University of Oxford.
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2026 (English)In: World Future Review, ISSN 1946-7567, E-ISSN 2169-2793, article id 19467567261438451Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To build a sustainable future, people need new stories about how societies can engage with nature. Visions of the future are a powerful way to tell new stories, especially when they model value systems that are under-represented in dominant discourses about how the future might unfold or be guided. This paper outlines a participatory visioning process conducted in Mombera Kingdom, a traditional community located in northern Malawi. Using the Nature Futures Framework (NFF), a tool created by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models to help develop scenarios and models of desirable, sustainable futures for people and nature, we co-produced several desirable, value-diverse visions of the community’s future. To enable communication both within the community and a wider audience beyond academia, hopes and tensions embedded in these visions were captured by artworks and short speculative fiction stories that were widely disseminated to the public. We also applied semi-quantitative system mapping to integrate community insights with academic literature, and rearranged elements of the participatory visions into distinct future scenarios. These scenarios were designed to offer a local case study perspective that could feed into visioning at larger scales and thereby contribute to the ‘bottom-up’ scenario process advocated by the IPBES Task Force. This study’s approach specified multiple potential values for (and meanings of) the community’s landscape, offering an example of how research can navigate, support, and amplify value-plurality in post-colonial contexts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. article id 19467567261438451
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-254640DOI: 10.1177/19467567261438451OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-254640DiVA, id: diva2:2055677
Projects
African Futures
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2020_0670Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation
Note

Regarding the "Part of other project" field - please use the wording that Prof. Laura Pereira uses for her publications "Tracking the Progress Towards Preferable Biodiversity and Climate Futures in the Barotse Cultural Landscape of Zambia" (Kabisa and Pereira 2025) and "Advancing the understanding of Indigenous and Local Knowledge practices in mangrove ecosystem sustainability in the Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve in West Africa (Benin Republic-Togo)" (Tcheton et al. 2025). Thank you!

Available from: 2026-04-26 Created: 2026-04-26 Last updated: 2026-04-27Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Co-creating desirable African Futures using the Nature Futures Framework
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Co-creating desirable African Futures using the Nature Futures Framework
2026 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The global biodiversity crisis is reproduced and reinforced by a crisis of imagination: people’s capacity to reimagine how they relate to nature is constrained by dominant paradigms that limit what futures are considered possible. By inviting citizens and communities to imagine new futures, participatory visioning exercises offer one avenue for diversifying what possibilities are conceivable to participants and amplifying perspectives that challenge prevailing assumptions. Such interventions are especially potent in postcolonial contexts, where alternative ways of knowing and relating to nature can remain marginalized by legacies of epistemic domination. This is particularly consequential in African contexts, which are both underrepresented in global environmental futures and characterized by rich diversity of human-nature relationships and value systems.

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF), a tool for negotiating diverse values of nature proposed by the Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Expert Group on Scenarios and Models, is a promising approach for navigating the diversity of worldviews present in African contexts and amplifying the future possibilities legible to those worldviews in global conversations about transformative nature futures. While the NFF has shown promise in guiding value-plural scenario development, empirical applications in participatory settings, including in African contexts, remain limited. This licentiate thesis presents two participatory visioning case studies that operationalized the NFF in African contexts at both the local and regional scale, articulating countervailing ideas able to represent a broader variety of geographical perspectives, nature values, and possibilities.

Paper 1 combined multiple techniques (including participatory visioning, artistic engagement, and expert-led scenarios) to explore possible futures for nature and people in Mzimba, Malawi. The process incited co-creation of desirable visions that challenged the boundaries of the prevailing narrative about Mzimba’s future, facilitated the creation of artistic outputs that invited audiences into the shared imagination co-produced by community participants, and enabled analysis of the multiple values that our partner community held for their woodland landscape.

Paper 2 applied a participatory futures approach to co-create continental-scale visions of sustainability transformation for Africa, as well as chronological pathways that explored how those visions might be achieved. By complicating the dominant perspective that human prosperity will necessarily create negative impacts for biodiversity, these futures suggest alternative development trajectories for the African continent in which nature and people can thrive together.

This licentiate thesis offers methodological prototypes for value-plural participatory visioning in African contexts at multiple scales, as well as alternative perspectives that may be capable of detecting previously illegible possibilities and suggesting previously unconsidered priorities for planning.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm University, 2026. p. 36
National Category
Natural Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-254646 (URN)
Presentation
2026-05-18, SRC B1411, Albanovägen 28, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, 2023.0023Swedish Research Council Formas, 2020-00670
Available from: 2026-04-27 Created: 2026-04-27 Last updated: 2026-04-27Bibliographically approved

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Publisher's full texthttps://doi.org/10.1177/19467567261438451

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Carpenter-Urquhart, Liam R.Pereira, LauraKuiper, Jan J.Peterson, Garry

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