Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Capability and robustness of novel hybridized models used for drought hazard modeling in southeast Queensland, Australia
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7978-0040
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 102020 (English)In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 718, article id 134656Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Widespread detrimental and long-lasting droughts are having catastrophic impacts around the globe. Researchers, organizations, and policy makers need to work together to obtain precise information, enabling timely and accurate decision making to mitigate drought impacts. In this study, a spatial modeling approach based on an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and several metaheuristic optimizations (ANFIS-BA, ANFIS-GA, ANFIS-ICA, ANFIS-PSO) was developed to predict the spatial occurrence of drought in a region in southeastern Queensland, Australia. In this approach, data describing the distribution of eight drought-contributing factors were prepared for input into the models to serve as independent variables. Relative departures of rainfall (RDR) and relative departures of soil moisture (RDSM) were analyzed to identify locations where drought conditions have occurred. The set of locations in the study area identified as having experienced drought conditions was randomly divided into two groups, 70% were used for training and 30% for validation. The models employed these data to generate maps that predict the locations that would be expected to experience drought. The prediction accuracy of the model-produced drought maps was scrutinized with two evaluation metrics: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results demonstrate that the hybridized models (ANFIS-BA (AUC(mean) = 83.7%, RMSEmean = 0.236), ANFIS-GA (AUC(mean) = 81.62%, RMSEmean = 0.247), ANFIS-ICA (AUC(mean) = 82.12%, RMSEmean = 0.247), and ANFIS-PSO (AUC(mean) = 81.42%, RMSEmean = 0.255)) yield better predictive performance than the standalone ANFIS model (AUC(mean) = 71.8%, RMSEmean = 0.344). Furthermore, sensitivity analyses indicated that plantavailable water capacity, the percentage of soil comprised of sand, and mean annual precipitation were the most important predictors of drought hazard. The versatility of the new approach for spatial drought modeling and the capacity of ANFIS model hybridization to improve model performance suggests great potential to assist decision makers in their formulations of drought risk, recovery, and response management, and in the development of contingency plans.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 718, article id 134656
Keywords [en]
Drought hazard, Spatial modeling, Hybrid model, GIS, Australia
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-181919DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134656ISI: 000526029000021PubMedID: 31839310OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-181919DiVA, id: diva2:1444056
Available from: 2020-06-19 Created: 2020-06-19 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMed

Authority records

Panahi, MahdiKalantari, ZahraDayal, Kavina S.Deo, Ravinesh C.

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Panahi, MahdiKalantari, ZahraDayal, Kavina S.Deo, Ravinesh C.
By organisation
Department of Physical Geography
In the same journal
Science of the Total Environment
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Total: 78 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf