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Soil organic carbon models need independent time-series validation for reliable prediction
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5960-5712
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Number of Authors: 262023 (English)In: Communications Earth & Environment, E-ISSN 2662-4435, Vol. 4, no 1, article id 158Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Numerical models are crucial to understand and/or predict past and future soil organic carbon dynamics. For those models aiming at prediction, validation is a critical step to gain confidence in projections. With a comprehensive review of ~250 models, we assess how models are validated depending on their objectives and features, discuss how validation of predictive models can be improved. We find a critical lack of independent validation using observed time series. Conducting such validations should be a priority to improve the model reliability. Approximately 60% of the models we analysed are not designed for predictions, but rather for conceptual understanding of soil processes. These models provide important insights by identifying key processes and alternative formalisms that can be relevant for predictive models. We argue that combining independent validation based on observed time series and improved information flow between predictive and conceptual models will increase reliability in predictions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. Vol. 4, no 1, article id 158
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Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
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URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-219573DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00830-5ISI: 000983979300005Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85158074717OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-219573DiVA, id: diva2:1785095
Available from: 2023-08-01 Created: 2023-08-01 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Manzoni, Stefano

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Manzoni, StefanoAbramoff, Rose
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Department of Physical GeographyThe Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI)
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