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Planetary Boundaries interactions and food production:: Exploring the dynamic risk space
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8759-2015
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The world and its growing population is faced with the task of addressing rising food insecurities amidst increasing transgressions of planetary boundaries and associated systemic risks arising from links and feedbacks among the boundaries. Here we analyze interactions of the planetary boundaries for climate change and freshwater change, focused on green water (i.e. plant-available soil moisture departures from pre-industrial variability ranges) and discuss potential effects on food security. By forcing the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL5.8 with an ensemble of 5 CMIP6 climate models under the RCP 7.0 emissions scenario, we detect significant increases in dry deviations for green water in nearly a third of the terrestrial surface area by the end of the century (2071-2100), compared to current levels (period 1985-2014). The transgression of the climate change boundary adversely affects the status of the green water boundary, which is captured by the dynamic risk space terminology that we introduce here. This finding has crucial implications for rainfed agriculture, a food production system exclusively relying on green water, which is currently responsible for more than 60% of global food production. Despite its importance, green water does not feature in global sustainability policy and agreements, so we argue it should be made explicit in the Sustainable Development Goals and their targets. 

Keywords [en]
Green water, global sustainability, planetary boundaries, climate change, food security, Sustainable Development Goals, water scarcity
National Category
Environmental Sciences Climate Science
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-227033OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-227033DiVA, id: diva2:1841273
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01033Available from: 2024-02-28 Created: 2024-02-28 Last updated: 2025-02-01
In thesis
1. A Triply Green Revolution: Building water resilience for SDGs on food and poverty for Africa
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Triply Green Revolution: Building water resilience for SDGs on food and poverty for Africa
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Sub-Saharan Africa is confronted with the urgent challenge of ensuring food security in the face of changing demographics, climate change and water vulnerability, which can lead to potential crop failure. Despite the high advocacy for technological solutions, such as irrigation, rainfed agricultural systems, which account for more than 90% of the region's food production, often remain overlooked. This raises the question of which water sources can be sustainably utilized to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. This thesis investigates the significant role of "green water" in addressing these challenges in agricultural production and ecosystem health in the sub-Saharan African region. 

Application of models reveal the pronounced role of green water in African forest systems, regional ecosystems, and food production systems in studying these societal sustainability questions,. The study projects a decrease in precipitation recycling with increasing severity of climate change. The results suggests that regions with lower water efficiency per yield production can significantly increase agricultural yield by tapping into green water sources as improving rainwater management systems, even as land-sourced precipitation is projected to decline more than oceanic sources. 

The thesis argues for adoption of a green water-centric approach to be opted in strategic plans at both local and global levels. Moreover, by capitalizing on green water resources, less developed nations such as sub-Saharan Africa can fulfill their Sustainable Development Goals without the need for significant technological investments and the associated environmental risks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 2024. p. 42
Keywords
Sustainable Development Goals SDGs, Africa, water resilience, green-blue water, agriculture, climate change, land-use change, planetary boundaries
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-227035 (URN)978-91-8014-689-0 (ISBN)978-91-8014-690-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-04-03, ALB Hörsal 4, hus 2 Albano, Albanovägen 18 and online via Zoom, public link is available at the department website, Stockholm, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01033
Available from: 2024-03-11 Created: 2024-02-28 Last updated: 2024-03-11Bibliographically approved

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