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Green-Blue water Potential for attaining the Sustainable Development Goals for Food
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8759-2015
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Currently, water provision for food production in Africa's agricultural system is primarily focused on blue water estimates, which are typically used in irrigated agriculture. This has resulted in both research and policy focusing on adapting agricultural practices to blue water supply and access from rivers and lakes. and overlooks the equally important role of green water. Green water is defined as the soil moisture available for plant uptake as a result of rainfall infiltration. Africa's food production relies heavily on rainfed agriculture, making green water a crucial resource. However, it is unclear how much green water can contribute to transforming food production through adapted agricultural practices. The aim of our study is to assess the hydroclimatic regime and identify regions dominated by green and blue water at the landscape level. In regions dominated by green water, we also map the potential for additional agriculture through adapted farming practices. We investigate the extent and location of changes in the blue-green water landscape under various climate change scenarios. To achieve this, we employ the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model to simulate water flows, vegetation growth, crop production, and climate interactions from 1901 to 2100. The simulations indicate that green water has a high potential to enhance food production in agriculture, particularly in semi-arid, semi-humid, and wet sub-humid regions. However, most wet humid regions are already operating at their maximum capacity. The findings also suggest that integrating green water into agriculture, for example, through rainwater harvesting systems, can improve the efficiency of food production, particularly in regions where water efficiency has been low. This highlights the significance of green water and its potential as a crucial water source for enhancing food security in Africa.

Keywords [en]
Africa, Rainwater Management, Agriculture, Sustainable Development Goals, Green and Blue water, Hydroclimates
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-227082OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-227082DiVA, id: diva2:1841540
Available from: 2024-02-29 Created: 2024-02-29 Last updated: 2024-03-06Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. A Triply Green Revolution: Building water resilience for SDGs on food and poverty for Africa
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Triply Green Revolution: Building water resilience for SDGs on food and poverty for Africa
2024 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Sub-Saharan Africa is confronted with the urgent challenge of ensuring food security in the face of changing demographics, climate change and water vulnerability, which can lead to potential crop failure. Despite the high advocacy for technological solutions, such as irrigation, rainfed agricultural systems, which account for more than 90% of the region's food production, often remain overlooked. This raises the question of which water sources can be sustainably utilized to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. This thesis investigates the significant role of "green water" in addressing these challenges in agricultural production and ecosystem health in the sub-Saharan African region. 

Application of models reveal the pronounced role of green water in African forest systems, regional ecosystems, and food production systems in studying these societal sustainability questions,. The study projects a decrease in precipitation recycling with increasing severity of climate change. The results suggests that regions with lower water efficiency per yield production can significantly increase agricultural yield by tapping into green water sources as improving rainwater management systems, even as land-sourced precipitation is projected to decline more than oceanic sources. 

The thesis argues for adoption of a green water-centric approach to be opted in strategic plans at both local and global levels. Moreover, by capitalizing on green water resources, less developed nations such as sub-Saharan Africa can fulfill their Sustainable Development Goals without the need for significant technological investments and the associated environmental risks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 2024. p. 42
Keywords
Sustainable Development Goals SDGs, Africa, water resilience, green-blue water, agriculture, climate change, land-use change, planetary boundaries
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-227035 (URN)978-91-8014-689-0 (ISBN)978-91-8014-690-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2024-04-03, ALB Hörsal 4, hus 2 Albano, Albanovägen 18 and online via Zoom, public link is available at the department website, Stockholm, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01033
Available from: 2024-03-11 Created: 2024-02-28 Last updated: 2024-03-11Bibliographically approved

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Nyasulu, Maganizo Kruger

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