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A generalized stochastic SIRS epidemic model incorporating mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5157-5267
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Number of Authors: 52023 (English)In: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, ISSN 0378-4371, E-ISSN 1873-2119, Vol. 615, article id 128609Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The aim of this work is to study a new stochastic SIRS epidemic model that includes the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and a general incidence rate. First, we prove the global existence and positivity of the solution by using Lyapunov functions. Second, we analytically make out the stochastic epidemic threshold (T) over tilde (S)(0) which pilots the extinction and persistence in mean of the disease. We have proven that the disease extinguishes when (T) over tilde (S)(0) < 1. Otherwise, if <(T)over tilde>(S)(0) > 1, then disease is persistent in mean. For the critical case (T) over tilde (S)(0) = 1, we have shown that the disease dies out by using an approach involving some appropriate stopping times. Finally, we present a series of numerical simulations to confirm the feasibility and correctness of the theoretical analysis results. (c) 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. Vol. 615, article id 128609
Keywords [en]
Epidemic model, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, Stochastic threshold, Speed of reversion
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-229797DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2023.128609ISI: 000993694100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85149297270OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-229797DiVA, id: diva2:1861487
Available from: 2024-05-28 Created: 2024-05-28 Last updated: 2024-10-15Bibliographically approved

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El Khalifi, Mohamed

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