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Lake ecosystem tipping points and climate feedbacks
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Exeter, UK.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0020-7461
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Number of Authors: 72024 (English)In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 15, no 3, p. 653-669Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Lakes and ponds experience anthropogenically forced changes that may be non-linear and sometimes initiate ecosystem feedbacks leading to tipping points beyond which impacts become hard to reverse. In many cases climate change is a key driver, sometimes in concert with other stressors. Lakes are also important players in the global climate by ventilating a large share of terrestrial carbon (C) back to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases and will likely provide substantial feedbacks to climate change. In this paper we address various major changes in lake ecosystems and discuss if tipping points can be identified, predicted, or prevented, as well as the drivers and feedbacks associated with climate change. We focus on potential large-scale effects with regional or widespread impacts, such as eutrophication-driven anoxia and internal phosphorus (P) loading, increased loading of organic matter from terrestrial to lake ecosystems (lake “browning”), lake formation or disappearance in response to cryosphere shifts or changes in precipitation to evaporation ratios, switching from nitrogen to phosphorus limitation, salinization, and the spread of invasive species where threshold-type shifts occur. We identify systems and drivers that could lead to self-sustaining feedbacks, abrupt changes, and some degree of resilience, as opposed to binary states not subject to self-propelling changes or resilience. Changes driven by warming, browning, and eutrophication can cause increased lake stratification, heterotrophy (browning), and phytoplankton or macrophyte mass (eutrophication), which separately or collectively drive benthic oxygen depletion and internal phosphorus loading and in turn increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Several of these processes can feature potential tipping point thresholds, which further warming will likely make easier to surpass. We argue that the full importance of the vulnerability of lakes to climate and other anthropogenic impacts, as well as their feedback to climate, is not yet fully acknowledged, so there is a need both for science and communication in this regard.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 15, no 3, p. 653-669
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Climate Science Ecology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-232230DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-653-2024ISI: 001231730700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85194484415OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-232230DiVA, id: diva2:1889249
Available from: 2024-08-15 Created: 2024-08-15 Last updated: 2025-02-01Bibliographically approved

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Armstrong McKay, David

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