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SHAP-Driven Explainability in Survival Analysis for Predictive Maintenance Applications
Stockholm University. Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1357-1967
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7713-1381
Number of Authors: 42024 (English)In: HAII5.0 2024 Embracing Human-Aware AI in Industry 2024: Proceedings of Workshop on Embracing Human-Aware AI in Industry 5.0 (HAII5.0 2024) co-located with the 27TH EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (ECAI 2024), / [ed] Sławomir Nowaczyk; Myra Spiliopoulou; Marco Ragni; Olga Fink, 2024Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In the dynamic landscape of industrial operations, ensuring machines operate without interruption is crucial for maintaining optimal productivity levels. Estimating the Remaining Useful Life within Predictive Maintenance is vital for minimizing downtime, improving operational efficiency, and prevent-ing unexpected equipment failures. Survival analysis is a beneficial approach in this context due to its power of handling censored data (here referred to industrial assets that have not experienced a failure during the study period). However, the black-box nature of survival analysis models necessitates the use of explainable AI for greater transparency and interpretability. This study evaluates three Machine Learning-based Survival Analysis models and a traditional Survival Analysis model using real-world data from SCANIA AB, which includes over 90% censored data. Results indicate that Random Survival Forest outperforms the Cox Proportional Hazards model and the Gradient Boosting Survival Analysis and Survival Support vector machine. Additionally, we employ SHAP analysis to provide global and local explanations, highlighting the importance and interaction of features in our best-performing model. To overcome the limitation of applying SHAP on survival output, we utilize a surrogate model. Finally, SHAP identifies specific influential features, shedding light on their effects and interactions. This compre-hensive methodology tackles the inherent opacity of machine learning-based survival analysis models, providing valuable insights into their predictive mechanisms. The findings from our SHAP analysis underscore the pivotal role of these identified features and their interactions, thereby enriching our comprehension of the factors influencing Remaining Useful Life predictions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024.
Series
CEUR Workshop Proceedings, E-ISSN 1613-0073
Keywords [en]
Explainable Artificial Intelligence, Predictive Maintenance, Survival Analysis, XPdM, Censored data
National Category
Computer Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-234098OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-234098DiVA, id: diva2:1903846
Conference
ECAI: EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, HAII5.0: Embracing Human-Aware AI in Industry 5.0, 19 October 2024, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
Available from: 2024-10-07 Created: 2024-10-07 Last updated: 2024-10-09Bibliographically approved

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Kharazian, ZahraMiliou, IoannaLindgren, Tony

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