Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Note on a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered epidemic model with the heterogeneity in susceptibility
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics. Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Fez, Morocco.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5157-5267
Number of Authors: 22024 (English)In: Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, ISSN 0960-0779, E-ISSN 1873-2887, Vol. 184, article id 115041Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this note we present a simple nonlinear SIR epidemic model with heterogeneous susceptibility. In contrast to the homogeneous SIR model, we assume that some individuals have a lower susceptibility and the remainders have a certain higher susceptibility, while both models have the same basic reproduction number. The peak and the final size from the new model are smaller compared to the homogeneous SIR model. The heterogeneity is found to have a flattening effect on the epidemic curve postponing the peak time. Also, the amount of heterogeneity in the population might increase the amount of vaccine required for herd immunity when the vaccines are less immune for the most susceptible individuals. When a new variant comes to the population, the invasion probability depends not only on the relative transmissibility of this new variant but also on the heterogeneity level of the population. As an example, The model is fitted to the 1978 influenza outbreak in a boarding school data by minimizing the sum of squared errors.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 184, article id 115041
Keywords [en]
Epidemic modeling, Heterogeneity, Nonlinear differential equation, Susceptibility, Vaccination
National Category
Other Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-235616DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115041ISI: 001244573300001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85193621374OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-235616DiVA, id: diva2:1913541
Available from: 2024-11-15 Created: 2024-11-15 Last updated: 2024-11-15Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

El Khalifi, Mohamed

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
El Khalifi, Mohamed
By organisation
Department of Mathematics
In the same journal
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
Other Mathematics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 103 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf