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Variational inference for acceleration of SN Ia photometric distance estimation with BayeSN
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmo Particle Physics (OKC). Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physics. Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Institute for Cosmology, UK.ORCID iD: 0009-0005-6323-0457
Number of Authors: 42024 (English)In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, ISSN 0035-8711, E-ISSN 1365-2966, Vol. 535, no 3, p. 2306-2321Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are standarizable candles whose observed light curves can be used to infer their distances, which can in turn be used in cosmological analyses. As the quantity of observed SNe Ia grows with current and upcoming surveys, increasingly scalable analyses are necessary to take full advantage of these new data sets for precise estimation of cosmological parameters. Bayesian inference methods enable fitting SN Ia light curves with robust uncertainty quantification, but traditional posterior sampling using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is computationally expensive. We present an implementation of variational inference (VI) to accelerate the fitting of SN Ia light curves using the BayeSN hierarchical Bayesian model for time-varying SN Ia spectral energy distributions. We demonstrate and evaluate its performance on both simulated light curves and data from the Foundation Supernova Survey with two different forms of surrogate posterior–a multivariate normal and a custom multivariate zero-lower-truncated normal distribution–and compare them with the Laplace Approximation and full MCMC analysis. To validate of our variational approximation, we calculate the Pareto-smoothed importance sampling diagnostic, and perform variational simulation-based calibration. The VI approximation achieves similar results to MCMC but with an order-of-magnitude speed-up for the inference of the photometric distance moduli. Overall, we show that VI is a promising method for scalable parameter inference that enables analysis of larger data sets for precision cosmology.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 535, no 3, p. 2306-2321
Keywords [en]
distance scale, dust, extinction, general, methods, statistical – supernovae
National Category
Astronomy, Astrophysics and Cosmology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-240797DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stae2465ISI: 001358929500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85210292021OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-240797DiVA, id: diva2:1946015
Available from: 2025-03-20 Created: 2025-03-20 Last updated: 2025-10-01Bibliographically approved

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Thorp, Stephen

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