The impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate variability on surface water availability is critical for informing transboundary water management. However, most hydrological models overlook the socio-economic (SE) heterogeneity of basins, potentially leading to oversimplified or inaccurate conclusions. This study aims to analyze the value of integrating socio-economic zones into hydrological analysis when disentangling the effects of LULC change and climate variability on surface water yield in the Okavango Basin. Using the InVEST water yield model, we simulated surface water availability for the years 2004, 2013, and 2020, achieving strong agreement with observed discharge data (R2 = 0.88, p < 0.05). Results show a basin-wide decline in mean surface water depth from 459 mm in 2004 to 299 mm in 2020, a 35 % reduction, consistent with regional drying trends and increasing anthropogenic pressures. Climate variability emerged as the dominant driver of change, explaining 81.7 % and 78.5 % of water yield variation during 2004–2013 and 2013–2020, respectively. However, in highly modified zones such as SE 2, 7, and 13, LULC change accounted for over 50 % of the variation, underscoring the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological drivers. By incorporating socio-economic zoning, this study offers a more nuanced and policy-relevant understanding of surface water dynamics and supports the design of targeted, zone-specific water management strategies in transboundary contexts.