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Examining copper supply consistency in socioeconomic pathways: A mine-level dynamic approach
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5821-2597
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Number of Authors: 82026 (English)In: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, ISSN 0921-3449, E-ISSN 1879-0658, Vol. 225, article id 108633Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Primary copper production capacity is crucial given future demand and social, environmental, technical, economic, and political constraints, often overlooked in decarbonization pathway models. To address this, we propose a methodology to examine the consistency of the basic drivers of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for primary copper requirements using the DyMEMDS stock-flow model. Our approach involves projecting primary copper production capacities to 2050 on a mine-by-mine basis, integrating mining industry dynamics based on commercial data. Results indicate significant concerns regarding the consistency of SSPs' basic drivers for copper requirements, revealing potential gaps exceeding 40 Mt in worst-case scenarios. Such discrepancies could impact technology deployments necessary for socioeconomic and decarbonisation assumptions. We recommend that the decarbonization modeling community align scenarios with mining industry constraints. Considering resource efficiency and circular economy strategies is essential for proposing more consistent scenarios to decision-makers, thereby mitigating risks of copper supply shortages hindering climate action.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. Vol. 225, article id 108633
Keywords [en]
Copper, Critical Minerals, Decarbonization Pathways, Material Flow Analysis (MFA), Mine Supply, Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
National Category
Environmental Management
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-249055DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108633ISI: 001599380900002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105018856215OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-249055DiVA, id: diva2:2011936
Available from: 2025-11-06 Created: 2025-11-06 Last updated: 2025-11-07Bibliographically approved

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Delannoy, Louis

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  • de-DE
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