The partitioning of precipitation water input on land between green (evapotranspiration) and blue (runoff) water fluxes distributes the annually renewable freshwater resource among sectors and ecosystems. The patterns and main drivers of this partitioning are not fully understood around the global land area. We decipher the worldwide patterns and key determinants of this water flux partitioning and investigate its predictability based on a global machine learning model. Available data for 3,614 hydrological catchments and model application to the global land area agree in showing mostly larger green than blue water flux. Possible expansion/intensification of irrigated and/or rainfed agriculture to feed a growing human population, along with climate warming, will tend to increase this flux partitioning asymmetry, jeopardizing blue water security. The developed machine learning model presents a promising predictive tool for future blue and green water availability under various forthcoming climate and land-use change scenarios around the world.

Seafood companies rarely disclose what or where they are fishing. To provide a first overview of the fishing industry in the high seas-the area beyond national jurisdiction-we linked fishing activity in the high seas to vessel owners and corporate actors. We identified 1,120 corporate actors for 2,482 vessels (similar to 2/3 of high seas fishing vessels and effort in 2018) and found that the top 100 corporate actors account for 36% of all high seas fishing effort. As attribution for anthropogenic activities expands beyond a national framework, we demonstrate the feasibility of methods to identify the high seas fishing industry. These results provide a unique lens through which to view accountability for the use and protection of marine biodiversity.

Planetary functions are destabilized by the releases of large quantities and numbers of anthropogenic chemicals, which go beyond planetary boundaries and threaten the safe operating space for humanity. Here, we call for urgent action to mitigate these threats and identify opportunities for intervention along the impact pathway of anthropogenic chemicals, including plastics.

Globally, financial services are well positioned to contribute to the transformation needed for sustainable futures and will be critical for supporting corporate activities that regenerate and promote biosphere resilience as a key strategy to confront the new risk landscape of the Anthropocene. While current financial risk frameworks focus primarily on financial materiality and risks to the financial sector, failure to account for investment externalities will aggravate climate and other environmental change and set current sustainable finance initiatives off course. This article unpacks the cognitive disconnect in financial risk frameworks between environmental and financial risk. Through analysis of environmental, social, and governance ratings and estimates of global green investments, we exemplify how the cognitive disconnect around risk plays out in practice. We discuss what this means for the ability of society at large, and finance in particular, to deliver on sustainability ambitions and global goals.

China is a key player in global production, consumption, and trade of seafood. Given this dominance, Chinese choices regarding what seafood to eat, and how and where to source it, are increasingly important—for China, and for the rest of the world. This perspective explores this issue using a transdisciplinary approach and discusses plausible trajectories and implications for assumptions of future modeling efforts and global environmental sustainability and seafood supply. We outline China's 2030 projected domestic seafood production and consumption through an examination of available statistics, and qualitatively evaluate these in relation to key stated Chinese policy targets, consumer trends, and dominant political narratives. Our analysis shows that by 2030 China is likely to see seafood consumption outstrip domestic production. To meet the seafood gap China will likely attempt to increase domestic freshwater and offshore aquaculture, increase seafood imports, possibly expand the distant water fishing industry, and invest in seafood production abroad.

Plastic pollution has caused significant environmental and health challenges. Corporations that contribute to the manufacture, use, and distribution of plastics can play a vital role in addressing global plastic pollution and many are committing to voluntary pledges. However, the extent to which corporations’ voluntary commitments are helping solve the problem remains underexplored. Here, we develop a novel typology to characterize voluntary commitments to reduce plastic pollution made between 2015 and 2020 by 973 companies, including the top 300 of the Fortune Global 500. We find that 72% of these companies have made some form of commitment(s) to reduce plastic pollution. About 67% of companies participating in voluntary environmental programs (VEPs) and 17% of non-VEP participants made measurable and timebound commitments. However, rather than tackle virgin plastics, most companies target packaging and general plastics and frequently emphasize recycling-related efforts. Growing commitments on plastic pollution are made by large and important companies, but significantly more efforts beyond plastic recycling are required to effectively address plastic pollution challenges.

Rural, tropical coastal communities are experiencing sustained, often increasing food insecurity, poverty, and global change impacts. These challenges have stimulated a rise in projects aiming to enhance and diversify local livelihoods. The ability of these projects to achieve broad-scale benefits is limited by approaches that do not account for feedbacks among sectors and across marine and terrestrial environments. To address these limitations, we present an applied research agenda to support an integrated approach to livelihood project planning and management. This agenda explicitly examines interactions among natural resources, industries, and livelihoods and is based on three foundational activities: (1) a governance review and assessment, (2) strategic partnership formation, and (3) a diagnostic approach supported by science and shared outcomes. We add structure to the established logic in our field by broadening the sectoral and spatial scope of livelihoods projects, so they can better contribute to interrelated UN Sustainable Development Goals.

The freshwater cycle over land is fundamental for sustainability and resilience, yet is extensively modified and shaped by a vast range of human interventions in the land, water, and climate systems. The consequences of human water-cycle modifications can be non-linear, delayed, and distributed across boundaries, sectors, and scale. This complexity renders freshwater challenges difficult to govern and manage. We here propose a framework for understanding water's many functions for supporting, regulating, and stabilizing hydro-climatic, hydro-ecological, and hydro-social systems. This framework recognizes human impacts on major partitioning points, interactions among water functions, and stabilization and destabilization processes. A functional understanding of the freshwater cycle can integrate with social-ecological resilience-building principles, complement existing water sustainability governance approaches, and highlight the potential need for Earth-system-level governance of water. Recognizing water's diverse functional roles for resilience may promote a new generation of holistic and integrative water- land-climate governance.

Increasing the production of food from the ocean is seen as a pathway toward more sustainable and healthier human diets. Yet this potential is being overshadowed by competing uses of ocean resources in an accelerating blue economy.'' The current emphasis on production growth, rather than equitable distribution of benefits, has created three unexamined or flawed assumptions that growth in the blue economy will lead to growth in blue food'' production, increased production will inevitably lead to improved food and nutrition security, and mariculture production will replace marine capture fisheries. In this perspective, we argue that if research and policies are pursued without addressing these blind spots,'' blue food contributions to reducing hunger and malnutrition, and to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals, will be limited. Taking a broader food-system approach beyond production to also considering food access, affordability, and consumption will refocus the blue food agenda on making production and consumption more equitable and sustainable while increasing access for those who need it most.

Protecting the ocean has become a major goal of international policy as human activities increasingly endanger the integrity of the ocean ecosystem, often summarized as “ocean health.” By and large, efforts to protect the ocean have failed because, among other things, (1) the underlying socio-ecological pathways have not been properly considered, and (2) the concept of ocean health has been ill defined. Collectively, this prevents an adequate societal response as to how ocean ecosystems and their vital functions for human societies can be protected and restored. We review the confusion surrounding the term “ocean health” and suggest an operational ocean-health framework in line with the concept of strong sustainability. Given the accelerating degeneration of marine ecosystems, the restoration of regional ocean health will be of increasing importance. Our advocated transdisciplinary and multi-actor framework can help to advance the implementation of more active measures to restore ocean health and safeguard human health and well-being.

50 years might not seem long in the history of planet Earth, but the last 50 years have had profound implications for our living planet. 2022 marks the 50th anniversaries of the United Nations Environment Programme and the historic 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment. These anniversaries invite us all to reflect on the successes and failures of collective action and global environmental governance.

Social media data are transforming sustainability science. However, challenges from restrictions in data accessibility and ethical concerns regarding potential data misuse have threatened this nascent field. Here, we review the literature on the use of social media data in environmental and sustainability research. We find that they can play a novel and irreplaceable role in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals by allowing a nuanced understanding of human-nature interactions at scale, observing the dynamics of social-ecological change, and investigating the co-construction of nature values. We reveal threats to data access and highlight scientific responsibility to address trade-offs between research transparency and privacy protection, while promoting inclusivity. This contributes to a wider societal debate of social media data for sustainability science and for the common good.

Biodiversity offsets and no net loss (NNL) are important tools for the international policy focus on ecological restoration. In this issue of One Earth, Kajula et al. call for national, public offset registers to enable evaluations of biodiversity offset programs. Here, we argue that we also need to control the main drivers of biodiversity loss.

Aquatic foods are increasingly being recognized as having an important role to play in an environmentally sustainable and nutritionally sufficient food system. Proposals for increasing aquatic food production often center around species, environments, and ambitious hi-tech solutions that mainly will benefit the 16% of the global population living in high-income countries. Meanwhile, most aquaculture species and systems suffer from large performance gaps, meaning that targeted interventions and investments could significantly boost aquatic food supply and access to nutritious foods without a concomitant increase in environmental footprints. Here we contend that the dialogue around aquatic foods should pay greater attention to identifying and implementing interventions to improve the productivity and environmental performance of low-value commodity species that have been relatively overlooked in this regard to date. We detail a range of available technical and institutional intervention options and evaluate their potential for increasing the output and environmental performance of global aquaculture.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly being promoted as an ocean-based climate solution. However, such claims remain controversial because of the diffuse and poorly synthesized literature on climate benefits of MPAs. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a systematic literature review of 22,403 publications spanning 241 MPAs and analyzed these across 16 ecological and social pathways through which MPAs could contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Our meta-analysis demonstrates that marine conservation can significantly enhance carbon sequestration, coastal protection, biodiversity, and the reproductive capacity of marine organisms as well as fishers’ catch and income. Most of these benefits are only achieved in fully or highly protected areas and increase with MPA age. Although MPAs alone cannot offset all climate change impacts, they are a useful tool for climate change mitigation and adaptation of social-ecological systems.

As rates of urbanization and climatic change soar, decision-makers are increasingly challenged to provide innovative solutions that simultaneously address climate change impacts and risks and inclusively ensure quality of life for urban residents. Cities have turned to nature-based solutions to help address these challenges. Nature-based solutions, through the provision of ecosystem services, can yield numerous benefits for people and address multiple challenges simultaneously. Yet, efforts to mainstream nature-based solutions are impaired by the complexity of the interacting social, ecological, and technological dimensions of urban systems. This complexity must be understood and managed to ensure ecosystem-service provisioning is effective, equitable, and resilient. Here, we provide a social-ecological-technological system (SETS) framework that builds on decades of urban ecosystem services research to better understand four core challenges associated with urban nature-based solutions: multi-functionality, systemic valuation, scale mismatch of ecosystem services, and inequity and injustice. The framework illustrates the importance of coordinating natural, technological, and socio-economic systems when designing, planning, and managing urban nature-based solutions to enable optimal social-ecological outcomes.

The cascading effects of biodiversity decline on human well-being present a pressing challenge for sustainable development. Conservation efforts often prioritize safeguarding specific species, habitats, or intact ecosystems but overlook biodiversity's fundamental role in providing Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) in human -modified landscapes. Here, we systematically review 154 peer -reviewed studies to estimate the minimum levels of (semi -)natural habitat quantity, quality, and spatial configuration needed in human -modified landscapes to secure functional integrity essential for sustaining NCP provision. We find that the provision of multiple NCP is threatened when (semi -)natural habitat in the landscape falls below an area of 20%- 25% for each km2. Five NCP almost completely disappear below a level of 10% habitat. The exact quantity, quality, and spatial configuration of habitat required depends on local context and specific NCP. Today, about two-thirds of human -modified lands have insufficient (semi -)natural habitat, requiring action for NCP regeneration. Our findings serve as a generic guideline to target conservation actions outside natural areas.

Limiting global warming to 2°C or less compared with pre-industrial temperatures will require unprecedented rates of decarbonization globally. The scale and scope of transformational change required across sectors and actors in society raises critical questions of feasibility. Much of the literature on mitigation pathways addresses technological and economic aspects of feasibility, but overlooks the behavioral, cultural, and social factors that affect theoretical and practical mitigation pathways. We present a tripartite framework that “unpacks” the concept of mitigation pathways by distinguishing three factors that together determine actual mitigation: technical potential, initiative feasibility, and behavioral plasticity. The framework aims to integrate and streamline heterogeneous disciplinary research traditions toward a more comprehensive and transparent approach that will facilitate learning across disciplines and enable mitigation pathways to more fully reflect available knowledge. We offer three suggestions for integrating the tripartite framework into current research on climate change mitigation.

Despite decades of increasing investment in conservation, we have not succeeded in “bending the curve” of biodiversity decline. Efforts to meet new targets and goals for the next three decades risk repeating this outcome due to three factors: neglect of increasing drivers of decline; unrealistic expectations and time frames of biodiversity recovery; and insufficient attention to justice within and between generations and across countries. Our Earth system justice approach identifies six sets of actions that when tackled simultaneously address these failings: (1) reduce and reverse direct and indirect drivers causing decline; (2) halt and reverse biodiversity loss; (3) restore and regenerate biodiversity to a safe state; (4) raise minimum wellbeing for all; (5) eliminate over-consumption and excesses associated with accumulation of capital; and (6) uphold and respect the rights and responsibilities of all communities, present and future. Current conservation campaigns primarily address actions 2 and 3, with urgent upscaling of actions 1, 4, 5, and 6 needed to help deliver the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Global sustainability targets demand transformative changes. Nature-based solutions (NbS) are gaining traction in science and policy, but their potential for transformative change remains unexplored. We provide a framework to evaluate how NbS contribute to transformative change and apply it to 93 NbS from mountain social-ecological systems (SES). The framework serves to assess what elements may catalyze transformative change, how transformative change occurs, and what its outcomes are. Our results show that NbS are as much “people based” as “nature based.” Most NbS are based on four elements with transformation potential: nature's values, knowledge types, community engagement, and nature management practices. Our results confirm the potential of NbS for transformative change, observed through changes in non-sustainable trajectories of SES. We illustrate the components of our framework through a novel classification of NbS. The framework provides key components for assessing the effectiveness of NbS and allows tracking long-term transformative change processes.

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions must soon approach net zero to stabilize the global mean temperature. Although several international agreements have advocated for coordinated climate actions, their implementation has remained below expectations. One of the main challenges of international cooperation is different degrees of socio-political acceptance of decarbonization. Here, we interrogate a minimalistic model of the coupled human-natural system representing the impact of such socio-political acceptance on investments in clean energy infrastructure and the path to net-zero emissions. Despite its simplicity, the model can reproduce complex interactions between human and natural systems, and it can disentangle the effects climate policies from those of socio-political acceptance on the path to net zero. Although perfect coordination remains unlikely, because clean energy investments are limited by myopic economic strategies and policy systems that promote free-riding, more realistic decentralized cooperation with partial efforts from each actor could still lead to significant cuts in emissions.

Northern peatlands store 300-600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21 degrees C (range, 0.09-0.49 degrees C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.

The draft Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework commits to achievement of equity and justice outcomes and represents a “relational turn” in how we understand inclusive conservation. Although “inclusivity” is drawn on as a means to engage diverse stakeholders, widening the framing of inclusivity can create new tensions with regard to how to manage protected areas. We first offer a set of tensions that emerge in the light of the relational turn in biodiversity conservation. Drawing on global case examples applying multiple methods of inclusive conservation, we then demonstrate that, by actively engaging in the interdependent phases of recognizing hybridity, enabling conditions for reflexivity and partnership building, tensions can not only be acknowledged but softened and, in some cases, reframed when managing for biodiversity, equity, and justice goals. The results can improve stakeholder engagement in protected area management, ultimately supporting better implementation of global biodiversity targets.

Interdisciplinary research is paramount to addressing ocean sustainability challenges in the 21st century. However, women leaders have been underrepresented in interdisciplinary marine research, and there is little guidance on how to achieve the conditions that will lead to an increased proportion of women scientists in positions of leadership. Here, we conduct in-depth qualitative research to explore the main barriers and enablers to women’s leadership in an academic interdisciplinary marine research context. We found that interdisciplinarity can present unique and additional barriers to women leaders (e.g., complexity and lack of value attributed to interdisciplinary research) and are exacerbated by existing gender-specific issues that women experience (e.g., isolation and underrepresentation and stereotyping). Together these barriers overlap forming the “glass obstacle course”—which is particularly challenging for women in minoritized groups. Here, we provide a list of concrete, ambitious, and actionable enablers that can promote and support women’s leadership in academic interdisciplinary marine research.

Recent studies suggest that the pervasive impacts on global fishery resources caused by stressors such as overfishing and climate change could dramatically increase the likelihood of fishery conflict. However, existing projections do not consider wider economic, social, or political trends when assessing the likelihood of, and influences on, future conflict trajectories. In this paper, we build four future fishery conflict scenarios by considering multiple fishery conflict drivers derived from an expert workshop, a longitudinal database of international fishery conflict, secondary data on conflict driver trends, and regional expert reviews. The scenarios take place between the years 2030 and 2060 in the North-East Atlantic (scramble for the Atlantic''), the East China Sea (the remodeled empire''), the coast of West Africa (oceanic decolonization''), and the Arctic (polar renaissance''). The scenarios explore the implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions of the world and function as accessible, science-based communication tools that can help foster anticipatory governance capacity in the pursuit of future ocean security.

Synthetic chemicals and biologically engineered materials are major forces in today's food systems, but they are also major drivers of the global environmental changes and health challenges that characterize the Anthropocene. To address these challenges, we will need to increase assessment activity, promote alternative production practices with less reliance on such technologies, and regulate social campaigns and experiments. 

With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways.

Human activities have progressively eroded the biosphere basis for our societies and introduced various risks. To navigate these risks, or potential undesirable outcomes of the future, we need tools and an understanding of how to assess risk in a complex world. Risk assessments are a powerful tool to address sustain ability challenges. However, two issues currently hamper their ability to deal with sustainability risks: the limited sustainability science engagement with the multifaceted nature of risk and the lack of integration of social-ecological, complex, and resilience thinking into risk assessment. In this Perspective, we review and synthesize the wide range of risk definitions and uses and juxtapose them with knowledge on complex adaptive social-ecological systems. Through this synthesis, we highlight the strengths of each risk approach and outline five challenges that, if overcome, could turn risk assessments into a much-needed multifaceted toolbox for dealing with the certain uncertainty of a complex future.

Despite numerous pledges to the contrary, corporate activities are inflicting environmental harm and are pushing the Earth system toward and beyond planetary boundaries. Several sustainability accounting frameworks exist, designed to track corporate environmental impacts through corporate reporting, and there is currently a push toward standardization of these. However, most sustainability accounting frameworks still fail to fully capture the connections between corporate activities and impacts, as they depart from what is important for the companies (materiality assessments) and often rely on relative metrics. Here, we propose 15 essential environmental impact variables (EEIVs), applicable to all sectors, based on absolute metrics and what is essential for staying within the planetary boundaries. We argue that standardization must rather depart from these underlying premises. By designing EEIVs for seven primary industries with large environmental footprints and demonstrating the operationality via the aquaculture sector, we show how EEIVs efficiently identify the most important corporate impact information while increasing transparency between companies and stakeholders, thus enabling external assessment of corporate sustainability.

Local access to “wild,” common-pool terrestrial and aquatic resources is being diminished by global resource demand and large-scale conservation interventions. Many theories suggest the well-being of wild harvesters can be supported through transitions to other livelihoods, improved infrastructure, and market access. However, new theories argue that such benefits may not always occur because they are context dependent and vary across dimensions of well-being. We test these theories by comparing how wild harvesting and other livelihoods have been associated with food security and life satisfaction in different contexts across ∼10,800 households in the tropics. Wild harvests coincided with high well-being in remote, asset-poor, and less-transformed landscapes. Yet, overall, well-being increased with electrical infrastructure, proximity to cities, and household capitals. This provides large-scale confirmation of the context dependence of nature’s contributions to people, and suggests a need to maintain local wild resource access while investing in equitable access to infrastructure, markets, and skills.

Cities are home to around half of the global population but face intensified and unevenly distributed heat stresses. Trees are utilized to adapt to urban heat; however, most tree planting is prioritized by either biophysical or social metrics, rather than an integration of the two. It therefore remains unclear how to maximize ecological and social benefits of tree planting in the context of environmental justice. Here, we analyze social vulnerability to heat and the cooling capacity of trees across 38 of the largest cities in the United States. We find that socially vulnerable people tend to live in hotter neighborhoods with less tree canopy. Furthermore, tree planting in such neighborhoods can achieve greater cooling benefits per unit increase in canopy. Increasing tree cover in these neighborhoods will meet the greatest need for cooling and achieve greater cooling capacity, creating social and ecological co-benefits. Adaptation measures must address both the distributional injustices of urban heat and procedural justice in planning and managing nature-based cooling approaches.

There is substantial and unexplored potential for scientists to engage with the private sector for a sustainable ocean. The importance of such cooperation is a frequent emphasis of international dialogues and statements, it is embedded within the Sustainable Development Goals, and has been championed by prominent business leaders and scientists. But an uncritical embrace of science-industry collaboration is unhelpful, and candid reflections on the benefits and pitfalls that marine scientists can expect from actively engaging with the private sector are rare. In this Perspective, we draw on our collective experiences working with ocean industries in different parts of the world to reflect on how this has influenced our work, the effects these collaborations have generated, and the barriers to overcome for such partnerships to become more common. In doing so, we hope to help empower a new generation of marine scientists to explore collaboration with industry as a way to develop and scale up solutions for ocean sustainability.

Our civilization is facing substantial risks and a growing realization of how climatological and ecological tipping points can fundamentally change the premises for life. This rapidly emerging reality compels a shift in the scope of concern for humans. Even so, it remains unclear whether our ability to learn, collaborate, and address complex problems is compatible with this endemic crisis. Here, we address this existential dilemma by examining human behavioral change. We describe how historically established norms of empathy, cooperation, and engagement in altruistic acts can change during times of crises. We find that hyper-connected role models utilize novel technologies to challenge existing norms associated to altruism, for the benefit of both people and planet. Our observation suggests that an increased connectivity may help facilitate a cultural evolution of Earth altruism that embraces an increased scope and scale of behaviors that are compatible with the global sustainability challenges.