Climate is a crucial driver of the distributions and activity of multiple biotic and abiotic processes, and thus high-quality and high-resolution climate data are often prerequisite in various environmental research. However, contemporary gridded climate products suffer critical problems mainly related to sub-optimal pixel size and lack of local topography-driven temperature heterogeneity. Here, by integrating meteorological station data, high-quality terrain information and multivariate modelling, we aim to explicitly demonstrate this deficiency. Monthly average temperatures (1981-2010) from Finland, Sweden and Norway were modelled using generalized additive modelling under (1) a conventional (i.e. considering geographical location, elevation and water cover) and (2) a topoclimatic framework (i.e. also accounting for solar radiation and cold-air pooling). The performance of the topoclimatic model was significantly higher than the conventional approach for most months, with bootstrapped mean R-2 for the topoclimatic model varying from 0.88 (January) to 0.95 (October). The estimated effect of solar radiation was evident during summer, while cold air pooling was identified to improve local temperature estimates in winter. The topoclimatic modelling exposed a substantial temperature heterogeneity within coarser landscape units (>5 degrees C/1 km(-2) in summer) thus unveiling a wide range of potential microclimatic conditions neglected by the conventional approach. Moreover, the topoclimatic model predictions revealed a pronounced asymmetry in average temperature conditions, causing isotherms during summer to differ several hundreds of metres in altitude between the equator and pole facing slopes. In contrast, cold-air pooling in sheltered landscapes lowered the winter temperatures ca. 1.1 degrees C/100m towards the local minimum altitude. Noteworthy, the analysis implies that conventional models produce biassed predictions of long-term average temperature conditions, with errors likely to be high at sites associated with complex topography.

Farmers' practices in the management of agricultural landscapes influence biodiversity with implications for livelihoods, ecosystem service provision, and biodiversity conservation. In this study, we examined how smallholding farmers in an agriculture-forest mosaic landscape in southwestern Ethiopia manage trees and forests with regard to a few selected ecosystem services and disservices that they highlighted as beneficial or problematic. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected from six villages, located both near and far from forest, using participatory field mapping and semistructured interviews, tree species inventory, focus group discussions, and observation. The study showed that farmers' management practices, i.e., the planting of trees on field boundaries amid their removal from inside arable fields, preservation of trees in semimanaged forest coffee, maintenance of patches of shade coffee fields in the agricultural landscape, and establishment of woodlots with exotic trees result in a restructuring of the forest-agriculture mosaic. In addition, the strategies farmers employed to mitigate crop damage by wild mammals such as baboons and bush pigs, e. g., migration and allocation of migrants on lands along forests, have contributed to a reduction in forest and tree cover in the agricultural landscape. Because farmers' management practices were overall geared toward mitigating the negative impact of disservices and to augment positive services, we conclude that it is important to operationalize ecosystem processes as both services and disservices in studies related to agricultural landscapes.

We investigated the spatial relations of ecological and social processes to point at how state policies, population density, migration dynamics, topography, and socio-economic values of ‘forest coffee’ together shaped forest cover changes since 1958 in southwest Ethiopia. We used data from aerial photos, Landsat images, digital elevation models, participatory field mapping, interviews, and population censuses. We analyzed population, land cover, and topographic roughness (slope) data at the ‘sub-district’ level, based on a classification of the 30 lowest administrative units of one district into the coffee forest area (n = 17), and highland forest area (n = 13). For state forest sites (n = 6) of the district, we evaluated land cover and slope data. Forest cover declined by 25% between 1973 and 2010, but the changes varied spatially and temporally. Losses of forest cover were significantly higher in highland areas (74%) as compared to coffee areas (14%) and state forest sites (2%), and lower in areas with steeper slopes both in coffee and highland areas. Both in coffee and highland areas, forest cover also declined during 1958–1973. People moved to and converted forests in relatively low population density areas. Altitudinal migration from coffee areas to highland areas contributed to deforestation displacement due to forest maintenance for shade coffee production in coffee areas and forest conversions for annual crop production in highland areas. The most rapid loss of forest cover occurred during 1973–1985, followed by 2001–2010, which overlapped with the implementations of major land and forest policies that created conditions for more deforestation. Our findings highlight how crop ecology and migration have shaped spatial variations of forest cover change across different altitudinal zones whilst development, land, and forest policies and programs have driven the temporal variations of deforestation. Understanding the mechanisms of deforestation and forest maintenance simultaneously and their linkages is necessary for better biodiversity conservation and forest landscape management.

As the world becomes more and more urbanized, it is increasingly important to understand the impacts of urban landscapes on biodiversity. Urbanization can change local habitat factors and decrease connectivity among local habitats, with major impacts on the structure of natural food webs. However, most studies have focused on single species, or compared rural to urban habitats, which do not inform us on how to design and manage cities to optimize biodiversity. To understand the local and spatial drivers of ecological communities within urban landscapes, we assessed the relative impact of local habitat factors (sunlight exposure and leaf litter) and spatial connectivity on an oak-associated herbivore community within an urban landscape. From the local habitat factors, leaf litter but not sunlight exposure was related to herbivore species richness, with leaf litter contributing to the maintenance of high species richness on isolated trees. Guilds and species differed strongly in their response to local habitat factors and connectivity, resulting in predictable variation in insect community composition among urban oaks. Taken together, our study shows an interactive effect of local and spatial factors on species richness and species composition within an urban context, with guild- and species-specific life histories determining the response of insects to urban landscapes. To maintain biodiversity in the urban landscape, preserving a dense network of local habitats is essential. Moreover, allowing leaf litter to accumulate can be a simple, cost-effective conservation management practice.

Context Human disturbances can have large impacts on forest structure and biodiversity, and thereby result in forest degradation, a property difficult to detect by remote sensing.

Objectives To investigate spatial variation in anthropogenic disturbances and their effects on forest structure and biodiversity.

Methods In 144 plots of 20 x 20 m distributed across a forest area of 750 km² in Southwest Ethiopia, we recorded: landscape variables (e.g., distance to forest edge), different human disturbances, forest structure variables, and species composition of trees and epiphyllous bryophytes. We then first assessed if landscape variables could explain the spatial distribution of disturbances. Second, we analysed how forest structure and biodiversity were influenced by disturbances.

Results Human disturbances, such as coffee management and grazing declined with distance to forest edges, and penetrated at least a kilometer into the forest. Slope was not related to disturbance levels, but several types of disturbances were less common at higher elevations. Among human disturbance types, coffee management reduced liana cover and was associated with altered species composition of trees. The presence of large trees and basal area were not related to any of the disturbance gradients.

Conclusions Although most anthropogenic disturbances displayed clear edge effects, surprisingly the variation in the chosen forest degradation indices were only weakly related to these disturbances. We suggest that the intersection between edge effects and forest degradation is very context specific and relies much on how particular societies use the forests. For example, in this landscape coffee management seems to be a key driver.

While sustainable agriculture relies on natural pest control, we lack insights into the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down factors on pest levels, especially along broad environmental and management gradients. To this aim, we focused on bottom-up and top-down control of herbivore damage in sixty sites in the centre of origin of Arabica coffee in southwestern Ethiopia, where coffee grows along a management gradient ranging from little or no management in the natural forest to commercial plantations. More specifically, we examined how canopy cover, percentage of surrounding forest and management intensity affected caffeine and chlorogenic acid concentration (bottom-up process) and attack of dummy caterpillars by ants and birds (top-down process), and how these in turn affected pest levels. Caffeine and chlorogenic acid concentrations were negatively related to canopy cover, while ant attack rate was positively related to canopy cover. Both ant and bird attack rate increased with the percentage of surrounding forest. Yet, secondary chemistry and caterpillar attack rates were unrelated to herbivory, and herbivory was only directly and positively affected by management intensity. Our study highlights that canopy cover can have contrasting effects on plant defence and predation, and that changes in bottom-up and top-down factors do – unlike often assumed – not necessarily translate into reduced pest levels. Instead, direct effects of management on pest levels may be more important than bottom-up or top-down mediated effects.

Questions: Near-ground temperatures can vary substantially over relatively short distances, enabling species with different temperature preferences and geographical distributions to co-exist within a small area. In a forest landscape, the near-ground temperatures may change due to management activities that alter forest density. As a result of such management activities, current species distributions and performances might not only be affected by current microclimates, but also by past conditions due to time-lagged responses.

Location: Sweden.

Methods: We examined the effects of past and current microclimates on the distributions and performances of two northern, cold-favoured, and two southern, warm-favoured, plant species in 53 managed forest sites. Each pair was represented by one vascular plant and one bryophyte species. We used temperature logger data and predictions from microclimate models based on changes in basal area to relate patterns of occurrence, abundance, and reproduction to current and past microclimate.

Results: The two northern species were generally favoured by microclimates that were currently cold, characterised by later snowmelt and low accumulated heat over the growing season. In contrast, the two southern species were generally favoured by currently warm microclimates, characterised by high accumulated heat over the growing season. Species generally had higher abundance in sites with a preferred microclimate both in the past and present, and lower abundance than expected from current conditions, if the past microclimate had changed from warm to cold or vice versa, indicating time-lags in abundance patterns of the species.

Conclusions: Our results show a potential importance of past and present microclimate heterogeneity for the co-existence of species with different temperature preferences in the same landscape and highlight the possibility to manage microclimates to mitigate climate change impacts on forest biodiversity.

1. The local climate in forest understories can deviate substantially from ambient conditions. Moreover, forest microclimates are often characterized by cyclic changes driven by management activities such as clear-cutting and subsequent planting. To understand how and why understorey plant communities change, both ambient climate change and temporal variation in forest structure have to be considered.
2. We used inventories from 11,436 productive forest sites in Sweden repeated every 10th year 1993–2017 to examine how variation in forest structure influences changes in the average value of minimum and maximum temperature preferences of all species in a community, that is, community temperature indices (CTIs). We then evaluated to what extent these changes were driven by local extinctions and colonizations, respectively, and to what extent the difference in CTI value between two inventories was related to changes in forest density and in macroclimate. Lastly, we tested whether effects on CTI change by these two drivers were modified by topography, soil moisture and tree species composition.
3. CTI values of the understorey plant communities increased after clear-cutting, and decreased during periods when the forest grew denser. During the period immediately after clear-cutting, changes were predominately driven by colonizations of species with a preference for higher temperatures. During the forest regeneration phase, both colonizations by species preferring lower temperatures and local extinctions of species preferring higher temperatures increased. The change in understorey CTI over 10-year periods was explained more by changes in forest density, than by changes in macroclimate. Soil moisture, topography and forest tree species composition modified to some extent the effects of changes in forest density and in macroclimate on understorey CTI values.
4. Synthesis. Via stand manipulation, forest management impacts the effects of regional climate on understorey plant communities. This implies that forest management by creating denser stands locally even can counterbalance the effects of regional changes in climate. Consequently, interpretations of changes in the mean temperature preference of species in forest understorey communities should take forest management regimes into account.

Identifying the factors determining the abundance and distribution of species is a fundamental question in ecology. One key issue is how similar the factors determining species' distributions across spatial scales are (here we focus especially on spatial extents). If the factors are similar across extents, then the large scale distribution pattern of a species may provide information about its local habitat requirements, and vice versa. We assessed the relationships between landscape and national optima as well as landscape and continental optima for growing degree days, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for 96 bryophytes and 50 vascular plants. For this set of species, we derived landscape optima from abundance weighted temperature data using species inventories in central Sweden and a fine-grained temperature model (50 m), national optima from niche centroid modelling based on GBIF data from Sweden and the same fine-grained climate model, and continental optima using the same method as for the national optima but from GBIF data from Europe and Worldclim temperatures (c. 1000 m). The landscape optima of all species were positively correlated with national as well as continental optima for maximum temperature (r = 0.45 and 0.46, respectively), weakly so for growing degree days (r = 0.30 and r = 0.28), but sometimes absent for minimum temperature (r = 0.26 and r = 0.04). The regression slopes of national or continental optima on local optima did not differ between vascular plants and bryophytes for GDD and Tmax. However, the relationship between the optima of Tmin differed between groups, being positive in vascular plants but absent in bryophytes. Our results suggest that positive correlations between optima at different spatial scales are present for some climatic variables but not for others. Moreover, our results for vascular plants and bryophytes suggest that correlations might differ between organism groups and depend on the ecology of the focal organisms. This implies that it is not possible to routinely up- or downscale distribution patterns based on environmental correlations, since drivers of distribution patterns might differ across spatial extents.

Most species distribution models assume a close link between climatic conditions and species distributions. Yet, we know little about the link between species’ geographical distributions and the sensitivity of performance to local environmental factors. We studied the performance of three bryophyte species transplanted at south- and north-facing slopes in a boreal forest landscape in Sweden. At the same sites, we measured both air and ground temperature. We hypothesized that the two southerly distributed species Eurhynchium angustirete and Herzogiella seligeri perform better on south-facing slopes and in warm conditions, and that the northerly distributed species Barbilophozia lycopodioides perform better on north-facing slopes and in relatively cool conditions. The northern, but not the two southern species, showed the predicted relationship with slope aspect. However, the performance of one of the two southern species was still enhanced by warm temperatures. An important reason for the inconsistent results can be that microclimatic gradients across landscapes are complex and influenced by many climate-forcing factors. Therefore, comparing only north- and south-facing slopes might not capture the complexity of microclimatic gradients. Population growth rates and potential distributions are the integrated results of all vital rates. Still, the study of selected vital rates constitutes an important first step to understand the relationship between population growth rates and geographical distributions and is essential to better predict how climate change influences species distributions.

In order to determine the response of a species to climatic change it is important to study how climatic factors influence its vital rates and population growth rate across climatic gradients. We investigated how microclimate influence the population dynamics of transplants from northern and more southern populations of the forest bryophyte Hylocomiastrum umbratum. We predicted that its population growth rate is favored by moist microclimates with colder maximum temperatures, longer snow cover duration and less evaporation, and that annual shoots (segments) will be shorter under drier conditions. We also predicted that northern populations will have higher population growth rate and larger segments than southern populations when transplanted to the northern range. We placed transplants from three northern and three southern populations of H. umbratum at 30 forested sites in central Sweden differing in microclimate. We marked and followed the growth of individual shoots during two years, and calculated population growth rates and stable stage distributions of segment size classes using transition matrix models for northern and southern transplants, respectively, at each locality. Population growth rate was lower and shorter segments developed at sites with higher evaporation, corresponding to our hypothesis. There were no significant difference in population growth rate and stable stage segment length between southern and northern populations. Higher evaporation during the summer result in lower population growth rates of H. umbratum by affecting vital rates, in terms of less segment growth. Both climate change and forestry may alter evaporation conditions across the landscape and, thus, the future distribution of the species.

Our knowledge of how plant seasonal development is related to local versus larger-scale environmental variation is limited. We investigated differentiation in the timing of vegetative and reproductive development among populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus over different spatial scales. We predicted earlier development and shorter development time for populations from a colder, northern region compared to populations from a warmer, southern region. Also, we predicted earlier and shorter development within regions to be associated with colder temperatures and higher proportions of deciduous trees at their sites of origin. Lastly, we predicted that earlier flowering is strongly correlated with earlier start of development. To examine these predictions, we conducted a common garden study, and compared the development of 10 northern and 10 southern Swedish L. vernus populations. Start of development, development time and start of flowering did not differ between populations from the two regions in contrast to our prediction. Within the southern region, start of flowering was earlier in populations from colder sites, while start of development was earlier with colder temperatures within the northern region. Start of flowering occurred earlier in southern populations from sites with higher proportion of deciduous trees. Thus, the prediction for the timing of development within regions was partly confirmed. However, vegetative and reproductive development was not simultaneously influenced by temperature and proportion of deciduous trees within regions, possibly due to the negative correlation between vegetative growth and development time. This implies that earlier start of development or shorter development time not necessarily correspond to earlier start of flowering or vice versa. Overall, the results suggest that smaller scale effects within region, such as temperature and interspecific competition for light, was more important for the timing of development than the larger scale gradients between regions. Lastly, the population differentiation across gradients of temperature and proportion of deciduous trees implies that populations may adapt to long-term changes in light or climatic conditions, and differ in their short-term response to climate change.

Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored.

Macroclimate warming is often assumed to occur within forests despite the potential for tree cover to modify microclimates. Here, using paired measurements, we compared the temperatures under the canopy versus in the open at 98 sites across 5 continents. We show that forests function as a thermal insulator, cooling the understory when ambient temperatures are hot and warming the understory when ambient temperatures are cold. The understory versus open temperature offset is magnified as temperatures become more extreme and is of greater magnitude than the warming of land temperatures over the past century. Tree canopies may thus reduce the severity of warming impacts on forest biodiversity and functioning.

Forest canopies buffer macroclimatic temperature fluctuations. However, we do not know if and how the capacity of canopies to buffer understorey temperature will change with accelerating climate change. Here we map the difference (offset) between temperatures inside and outside forests in the recent past and project these into the future in boreal, temperate and tropical forests. Using linear mixed-effect models, we combined a global database of 714 paired time series of temperatures (mean, minimum and maximum) measured inside forests vs. in nearby open habitats with maps of macroclimate, topography and forest cover to hindcast past (1970–2000) and to project future (2060–2080) temperature differences between free-air temperatures and sub-canopy microclimates. For all tested future climate scenarios, we project that the difference between maximum temperatures inside and outside forests across the globe will increase (i.e. result in stronger cooling in forests), on average during 2060–2080, by 0.27 ± 0.16 °C (RCP2.6) and 0.60 ± 0.14 °C (RCP8.5) due to macroclimate changes. This suggests that extremely hot temperatures under forest canopies will, on average, warm less than outside forests as macroclimate warms. This knowledge is of utmost importance as it suggests that forest microclimates will warm at a slower rate than non-forested areas, assuming that forest cover is maintained. Species adapted to colder growing conditions may thus find shelter and survive longer than anticipated at a given forest site. This highlights the potential role of forests as a whole as microrefugia for biodiversity under future climate change.

Cultural landscapes provide essential ecosystem services to local communities, especially in poor rural settings. However, potentially negative impacts of ecosystems-or disservices-remain inadequately understood. Similarly, how benefit-cost outcomes differ within communities is unclear, but potentially important for cultural landscape management. Here we investigated whether distinct forest ecosystem service-disservice outcomes emerge within local communities. We aimed to characterize groups of community members according to service-disservice outcomes, and assessed their attitudes towards the forest. We interviewed 150 rural households in southwestern Ethiopia about locally relevant ecosystem services (provisioning services) and disservices (wildlife impacts). Households were grouped based on their ecosystem service-disservice profiles through hierarchical clustering. We used linear models to assess differences between groups in geographic and socioeconomic characteristics, as well as attitudes toward the forest. We identified three groups with distinct ecosystem service-disservice profiles. Half of the households fell into a lose-lose profile (low benefits, high costs), while fewer had lose-escape (low benefits, low costs) and win-lose (high benefits, high costs) profiles. Location relative to forest and altitude explained differences between the lose-escape profile and other households. Socioeconomic factors were also important. Win-lose households appeared to be wealthier and had better forest use rights compared to lose-lose households. Attitudes towards the forest did not differ between profiles. Our study demonstrates the importance of disaggregating both ecosystem services and disservices, instead of assuming that communities receive benefits and costs homogenously. To manage cultural landscapes sustainably, such heterogeneity must be acknowledged and better understood.

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6 degrees C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

• The effectiveness of hedgerows as functional corridors in the face of climate warming has been little researched. Here we investigated the effects of warming temperatures on plant performance and population growth of Geum urbanum in forests versus hedgerows in two European temperate regions.
• Adult individuals were transplanted in three forest–hedgerow pairs in each of two different latitudes, and an experimental warming treatment using open-top chambers was used in a full factorial design. Plant performance was analysed using mixed models and population performance was analysed using Integral Projection Models and elasticity analyses.
• Temperature increases due to open-top chamber installation were higher in forests than in hedgerows. In forests, the warming treatment had a significant negative effect on the population growth rate of G. urbanum. In contrast, no significant effect of the warming treatment on population dynamics was detected in hedgerows. Overall, the highest population growth rates were found in the forest control sites, which was driven by a higher fecundity rather than a higher survival probability.
• Effects of warming treatments on G. urbanum population growth rates differed between forests and hedgerows. In forests, warming treatments negatively affected population growth, but not in hedgerows. This could be a consequence of the overall lower warming achieved in hedgerows. We conclude that maintenance of cooler forest microclimates coul, at least temporarily, moderate the species response to climate warming.

Given the serious limitations of production-oriented frameworks, we offer here a new conceptual framework for how to analyze the nexus of food security and biodiversity conservation. We introduce four archetypes of social-ecological system states corresponding to win-win (e.g., agroecology), win-lose (e.g., intensive agriculture), lose-win (e.g., fortress conservation), and lose-lose (e.g., degraded landscapes) outcomes for food security and biodiversity conservation. Each archetype is shaped by characteristic external drivers, exhibits characteristic internal social-ecological features, and has characteristic feedbacks that maintain it. This framework shifts the emphasis from focusing on production only to considering social-ecological dynamics, and enables comparison among landscapes. Moreover, examining drivers and feedbacks facilitates the analysis of possible transitions between system states (e.g., from a lose-lose outcome to a more preferred outcome).

We studied food security and biodiversity conservation from a social-ecological perspective in southwestern Ethiopia. Specialist tree, bird, and mammal species required large, undisturbed forest, supporting the notion of ‘land sparing’ for conservation. However, our findings also suggest that forest areas should be embedded within a multifunctional landscape matrix (i.e. ‘land sharing’), because farmland also supported many species and ecosystem services and was the basis of diversified livelihoods. Diversified livelihoods improved smallholder food security, while lack of access to capital assets and crop raiding by wild forest animals negatively influenced food security. Food and biodiversity governance lacked coordination and was strongly hierarchical, with relatively few stakeholders being highly powerful. Our study shows that issues of livelihoods, access to resources, governance and equity are central when resolving challenges around food security and biodiversity. A multi-facetted, social-ecological approach is better able to capture such complexity than the conventional, two-dimensional land sparing versus sharing framework.

The biophysical drivers that affect coffee quality vary within and among farms. Quantifying their relative importance is crucial for making informed decisions concerning farm management, marketability and profit for coffee farmers. The present study was designed to quantify the relative importance of biophysical variables affecting coffee bean quality within and among coffee farms and to evaluate a near infrared spectroscopy-based model to predict coffee quality. Twelve coffee plants growing under low, intermediate and dense shade were studied in twelve coffee farms across an elevational gradient (1470–2325 m asl) in Ethiopia. We found large within farm variability, demonstrating that conditions varying at the coffee plant-level are of large importance for physical attributes and cupping scores of green coffee beans. Overall, elevation appeared to be the key biophysical variable influencing all the measured coffee bean quality attributes at the farm level while canopy cover appeared to be the most important biophysical variable driving the above-mentioned coffee bean quality attributes at the coffee plant level. The biophysical variables driving coffee quality (total preliminary and specialty quality) were the same as those driving variations in the near-infrared spectroscopy data, which supports future use of this technology to assess green bean coffee quality. Most importantly, our findings show that random forest is computationally fast and robust to noise, besides having comparable prediction accuracy. Hence, it is a useful machine learning tool for regression studies and has potential for modeling linear and nonlinear multivariate calibrations. The study also confirmed that near-infrared spectroscopic-based predictions can be applied as a supplementary approach for coffee cup quality evaluations.

Green coffee bean quality and biochemistry are influenced by environmental variables. The present study was designed to study the influence of soil temperatures and soil chemistry on bean physical attributes, bean quality (assessed by three internationally trained, experienced, and certified Q-grade cuppers licensed by the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) Coffee Quality Institute (CQI) and biochemistry of green coffee beans). The study was performed in 53 farms in southwest Ethiopia distributed along an elevational gradients (1500–2160 m a.s.l.) and with varying shade canopy cover (open to dense shade). A total of 159 individual coffee trees were sampled. Shade tree canopy cover, soil temperature, and soil chemistry, as well as coffee management intensity, were quantified as explanatory variables. Green bean quality was negatively correlated to soil temperatures. On the other hand, hundred bean mass and green bean biochemistry (caffeine, trigonelline, and chlorogenic acid contents) were negatively correlated to soil temperatures but positively to soil chemistry. During the coffee fruit development period (flowering to fruit maturity), temperature appeared to be a driving factor influencing coffee bean quality and biochemistry. Total specialty quality was significantly associated with soil chemistry, in which 84% of the variation could be explained by soil chemical variables. This study is the first to demonstrate the relationship between soil temperatures and chemistry in coffee bean quality and green bean biochemical compositions. Although the relative importance of factors such as air temperatures and humidity and soil moisture are missing from this study, we find that soil temperatures and soil chemistry have a strong effect on coffee bean quality and biochemistry. Overall, climate change, which generally involves a substantial increase in mean temperatures of tropical regions, could be expected to have a negative impact on coffee bean quality and biochemistry.

Shade trees are used in many coffee production systems across the globe. Beyond the benefits on biodiversity conservation, climate buffering, carbon sequestration and pathogen regulation, shade trees can impact the soil nutrient status via, for instance, litter inputs and nitrogen fixation. Since soil nutrients affect coffee quality and taste, there is also a potential indirect effect of shade tree species on coffee quality. Yet, in spite of the potentially large impact of shade tree species, quantitative data on the effects of shade trees on (i) soil biogeochemistry and (ii) the associated coffee bean quality remain scarce. To what extent four widely used shade trees species (Acacia abyssinica L., Albizia gummifera L., Cordia africana L. and Croton macrostachyus L.) in a plantation coffee agroforestry system impact soil biogeochemistry, and how this in turn affects coffee quality, measured as cupping scores and bean size. A significant negative impact of N-fixing shade tree species on soil pH and base cation concentrations was found. Plant-available and total phosphorus was enhanced by the presence of Albizia gummifera L. Thus, the present findings demonstrate that careful selection and integration of shade tree species such as Acacia abyssinica L. and Albizia gummifera L. into coffee production systems is a good practice for sustaining soil chemical properties in coffee agroecosystem. Despite the impacts on soil chemical characteristics, the shade tree species had no effect on coffee cup quality but did affect the bean mass. In this particular study, an attempt was made to quantify the impacts of widely used shade tree species on soil biogeochemistry and the subsequent effect on coffee bean quality in a plantation agroforestry system over the course of one season in southwest Ethiopia. However, it might be feasible to accommodate both relatively sparse time-series experimental data consisting of coffee farms from plantations and smallholders, which needs to be the goal of future research to accurately examine the impacts on the outcome variables.

Of all feeding guilds, understorey insectivores are thought to be most sensitive to disturbance and forest conversion. We compared the composition of bird feeding guilds in tropical forest fragments with adjacent agro-ecosystems in a montane region of south-west Ethiopia. We used a series of point counts to survey birds in 19 agriculture and 19 forest sites and recorded tree species within each farm across an area of 40 x 35 km. Insectivores (similar to 17 spp. per plot), frugivores (similar to 3 spp. per plot) and omnivores (similar to 5 spp. per plot) maintained species density across habitats, while granivores and nectarivores increased in the agricultural sites by factors of 7 and 3 respectively. Species accumulation curves of each guild were equal or steeper in agriculture, suggesting that agricultural and forest landscapes were equally heterogeneous for all bird guilds. Counter to most published studies, we found no decline in insectivore species richness with forest conversion. However, species composition differed between the two habitats, with certain forest specialists replaced by other species within each feeding guild. We suggest that the lack of difference in insectivorous species numbers between forest and agriculture in this region is due to the benign nature of the agricultural habitat, but also due to a regional species pool which contains many bird species which are adapted to open habitats.

In the face of climate change, populations have two survival options - they can remain in situ and tolerate the new climatic conditions (stay), or they can move to track their climatic niches (go). For sessile and small-stature organisms like alpine plants, staying requires broad climatic tolerances, realized niche shifts due to changing biotic interactions, acclimation through plasticity, or rapid genetic adaptation. Going, in contrast, requires good dispersal and colonization capacities. Neither the magnitude of climate change experienced locally nor the capacities required for staying/going in response to climate change are constant across landscapes, and both aspects may be strongly affected by local microclimatic variation associated with topographic complexity. We combine ideas from population and community ecology to discuss the effects of topographic complexity in the landscape on the immediate stay or go opportunities of local populations and communities, and on the selective pressures that may have shaped the stay or go capacities of the species occupying contrasting landscapes. We demonstrate, using example landscapes of different topographical complexity, how species' thermal niches could be distributed across these landscapes, and how these, in turn, may affect many population and community ecological processes that are related to adaptation or dispersal. Focusing on treeless alpine or Arctic landscapes, where temperature is expected to be a strong determinant, our theorethical framework leads to the hypothesis that populations and communities of topographically complex (rough and patchy) landscapes should be both more resistant and more resilient to climate change than those of topographically simple (flat and homogeneous) landscapes. Our theorethical framework further points to how meta-community dynamics such as mass effects in topographically complex landscapes and extinction lags in simple landscapes, may mask and delay the long-term outcomes of these landscape differences under rapidly changing climates.

Species at their warm range margin are potentially threatened by higher temperatures, but may persist in microrefugia. Whether such microsites occur due to more suitable microclimate or due to lower biotic pressure from, for example competitive species, is still not fully resolved. We examined whether boreal bryophytes and lichens show signs of direct climate limitation, that is whether they perform better in cold and/or humid microclimates at their warm range margin. We transplanted a moss, a liverwort and a lichen to 58 boreal forest sites with different microclimates at the species' southern range margin in central Sweden. Species were grown in garden soil patches to control the effects of competitive exclusion and soil quality. We followed the transplanted species over three growing seasons (2016-2018) and modelled growth and vitality for each species as a function of subcanopy temperature, soil moisture, air humidity and forest type. In 2018, we also recorded the cover of other plants having recolonized the garden soil patches and modelled this potential future competition with the same environmental variables plus litter. Species performance increased with warmer temperatures, which was often conditional on high soil moisture, and at sites with more conifers. Soil moisture had a positive effect, especially on the moss in the last year 2018, when the growing season was exceptionally hot and dry. The lichen was mostly affected by gastropod grazing. Recolonization of other plants was also faster at warmer and moister sites. The results indicate that competition, herbivory, shading leaf litter and water scarcity might be more important than the direct effects of temperature for performance at the species' warm range margin. Synthesis. In a transplant experiment with three boreal understorey species, we did not find signs of direct temperature limitation towards the south. Forest microrefugia, that is habitats where these species could persist regional warming, may instead be sites with fewer competitors and enemies, and with sufficient moisture and more conifers in the overstorey.

Climate warming is likely to shift the range margins of species poleward, but fine-scale temperature differences near the ground (microclimates) may modify these range shifts. For example, cold-adapted species may survive in microrefugia when the climate gets warmer. However, it is still largely unknown to what extent cold microclimates govern the local persistence of populations at their warm range margin. We located 99 microrefugia, defined as sites with edge populations of 12 widespread boreal forest understory species (vascular plants, mosses, liverworts and lichens) in an area of ca. 24,000 km(2) along the species' southern range margin in central Sweden. Within each population, a logger measured temperature eight times per day during one full year. Using univariate and multivariate analyses, we examined the differences of the populations' microclimates with the mean and range of microclimates in the landscape, and identified the typical climate, vegetation and topographic features of these habitats. Comparison sites were drawn from another logger data set (n = 110), and from high-resolution microclimate maps. The microrefugia were mainly places characterized by lower summer and autumn maximum temperatures, late snow melt dates and high climate stability. Microrefugia also had higher forest basal area and lower solar radiation in spring and autumn than the landscape average. Although there were common trends across northern species in how microrefugia differed from the landscape average, there were also interspecific differences and some species contributed more than others to the overall results. Our findings provide biologically meaningful criteria to locate and spatially predict potential climate microrefugia in the boreal forest. This opens up the opportunity to protect valuable sites, and adapt forest management, for example, by keeping old-growth forests at topographically shaded sites. These measures may help to mitigate the loss of genetic and species diversity caused by rear-edge contractions in a warmer climate.

Species at their warm range margin are potentially threatened by a warmer climate, but may escape regional warming in locally colder microclimates. We evaluated whether boreal understory bryophytes and lichens show signs of climate limitation, i.e. whether they perform better in cold and/or humid microclimates at their warm range margin. We transplanted a moss, a liverwort, and a lichen to 58 boreal forest sites with different microclimates at the species’ southern range margin in central Sweden. Species were grown in garden soil to exclude effects of competition and soil quality. We followed the transplants over three growing seasons (2016-2018) and modelled growth and vitality for each species and year as a function of sub-canopy temperature, soil moisture, air humidity and forest type. We expected a negative response to warmer temperatures and drier conditions if the species were directly climate-limited. Transplant performance increased with warmer temperatures and at sites with more conifers. Soil moisture had a positive effect, especially on the moss in the last year 2018, which was extremely hot and dry. The lichen was negatively affected only by gastropod grazing. The results indicate that competition, herbivory, leaf litter and water scarcity might be more important than temperature for performance at the species’ warm range margin. Forest microrefugia, habitats were these species could persist regional warming, may therefore mainly be sites with less competitors and enemies, and with sufficient moisture and more conifers in the overstory. Our study illustrates that transplant experiments are a powerful tool to study range dynamics and the multiple environmental factors that influence them. Our results also suggest that multi-year experiments are valuable for identifying potential range-limiting effects that occur only after some time, or under extreme weather conditions e.g. in very dry years.

Microclimate research gained renewed interest over the last decade and its importance for many ecological processes is increasingly being recognized. Consequently, the call for high-resolution microclimatic temperature grids across broad spatial extents is becoming more pressing to improve ecological models. Here, we provide a new set of open-access bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests at 25 × 25 m² resolution.

The role of climate in determining range margins is often studied using species distribution models (SDMs), which are easily applied but have well-known limitations, e.g. due to their correlative nature and colonization and extinction time lags. Transplant experiments can give more direct information on environmental effects, but often cover small spatial and temporal scales. We simultaneously applied a SDM using high-resolution spatial predictors and an integral projection (demographic) model based on a transplant experiment at 58 sites to examine the effects of microclimate, light and soil conditions on the distribution and performance of a forest herb, Lathyrus vernus, at its cold range margin in central Sweden. In the SDM, occurrences were strongly associated with warmer climates. In contrast, only weak effects of climate were detected in the transplant experiment, whereas effects of soil conditions and light dominated. The higher contribution of climate in the SDM is likely a result from its correlation with soil quality, forest type and potentially historic land use, which were unaccounted for in the model. Predicted habitat suitability and population growth rate, yielded by the two approaches, were not correlated across the transplant sites. We argue that the ranking of site habitat suitability is probably more reliable in the transplant experiment than in the SDM because predictors in the former better describe understory conditions, but that ranking might vary among years, e.g. due to differences in climate. Our results suggest that L. vernus is limited by soil and light rather than directly by climate at its northern range edge, where conifers dominate forests and create suboptimal conditions of soil and canopy-penetrating light. A general implication of our study is that to better understand how climate change influences range dynamics, we should not only strive to improve existing approaches but also to use multiple approaches in concert.

The majority of microclimate studies have been done in topographically complex landscapes to quantify and predict how near-ground temperatures vary as a function of terrain properties. However, in forests understory temperatures can be strongly influenced also by vegetation. We quantified the relative influence of vegetation features and physiography (topography and moisture-related variables) on understory temperatures in managed boreal forests in central Sweden. We used a multivariate regression approach to relate near-ground temperature of 203 loggers over the snow-free seasons in an area of ∼16,000 km² to remotely sensed and on-site measured variables of forest structure and physiography. We produced climate grids of monthly minimum and maximum temperatures at 25 m resolution by using only remotely sensed and mapped predictors. The quality and predictions of the models containing only remotely sensed predictors (MAP models) were compared with the models containing also on-site measured predictors (OS models). Our data suggest that during the warm season, where landscape microclimate variability is largest, canopy cover and basal area were the most important microclimatic drivers for both minimum and maximum temperatures, while physiographic drivers (mainly elevation) dominated maximum temperatures during autumn and early winter. The MAP models were able to reproduce findings from the OS models but tended to underestimate high and overestimate low temperatures. Including important microclimatic drivers, particularly soil moisture, that are yet lacking in a mapped form should improve the microclimate maps. Because of the dynamic nature of managed forests, continuous updates of mapped forest structure parameters are needed to accurately predict temperatures. Our results suggest that forest management (e.g. stand size, structure and composition) and conservation may play a key role in amplifying or impeding the effects of climate-forcing factors on near-ground temperature and may locally modify the impact of global warming.

After the severe droughts in the 1970s and 1980s, and subsequent debates about desertification, analyses of satellite images reveal that the West African Sahel has become greener again. In this paper we report a study on changes in tree cover and tree species composition in three village landscapes in northern Burkina Faso, based on a combination of methods: tree density change detection using aerial photos and satellite images, a tree species inventory including size class distribution analysis, and interviews with local farmers about woody vegetation changes. Our results show a decrease in tree cover in the 1970s followed by an increase since the mid-1980s, a pattern correlating with the temporal trends in rainfall as well as remotely sensed greening in the region. However, both the inventory and interview data shows that the species composition has changed substantially towards a higher dominance of drought-resistant and exotic species. This shift, occurring during a period of increasing annual precipitation, points to the complexity of current landscape changes and questions rain as the sole primary driver of the increase in tree cover. We propose that the observed changes in woody vegetation (densities, species composition and spatial distribution) are mediated by changes in land use, including intensification and promotion of drought tolerant and fast growing species. Our findings, which indicate a rather surprising trajectory of land cover change, highlight the importance of studies that integrate evidence of changes in tree density and species composition to complement our understanding of land use and vegetation change trajectories in the Sahel obtained from satellite images. We conclude that a better understanding of the social-ecological relations and emerging land use trajectories that produce new types of agroforestry parklands in the region is of crucial importance for designing suitable policies for climate change adaptation, biodiversity conservation and the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services that benefit local livelihoods in one of the world's poorest regions.

Plants, including those managed by humans, are often attacked by multiple diseases. Yet, most studies focus on single diseases, even if the disease dynamics of multiple species is more interesting from a farmers’ perspective. Moreover, most studies are from single management systems, although it is valuable to understand how diseases are distributed across broad management gradients, especially in cases where less intensive management also provides biodiversity values in the landscape. To understand the spatial dynamics and drivers of diseases across such a broad management gradient, we assessed the four major fungal diseases on Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) at 60 sites in southwestern Ethiopia along a gradient from only little managed wild coffee in the forest understory to intensively managed coffee plantations. We found that environmental and management factors related to disease incidence and severity differed strongly among the four fungal diseases. Coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix) and Armillaria root rot (Armillaria mellea) were more severe in intensively managed sites, whereas coffee berry disease (Colletotrichum kahawae) and wilt disease (Gibberella xylarioides) were more severe in less managed sites. Among sites, incidence and severity of the four fungal diseases poorly correlated with each other. Within sites, however, shrubs that were severely attacked by coffee leaf rust also had high levels of berry disease symptoms. A better understanding of disease dynamics is important for providing management recommendations that benefit smallholder farmers, but also to evaluate possibilities for maintaining biodiversity values in the landscape related to shade cover complexity and wild coffee genetic variation.

Although anthropogenic edges are an important consequence of timber harvesting, edges due to natural disturbances or landscape heterogeneity are also common. Forest edges have been well studied in temperate and tropical forests, but less so in less productive, disturbance-adapted boreal forests. We synthesized data on forest vegetation at edges of boreal forests and compared edge influence among edge types (fire, cut, lake/wetland; old vs. young), forest types (broadleaf vs. coniferous) and geographic regions. Our objectives were to quantify vegetation responses at edges of all types and to compare the strength and extent of edge influence among different types of edges and forests. Research was conducted using the same general sampling design in Alberta, Ontario and Quebec in Canada, and in Sweden and Finland. We conducted a meta-analysis for a variety of response variables including forest structure, deadwood abundance, regeneration, understorey abundance and diversity, and non-vascular plant cover. We also determined the magnitude and distance of edge influence (DEI) using randomization tests. Some edge responses (lower tree basal area, tree canopy and bryophyte cover; more logs; higher regeneration) were significant overall across studies. Edge influence on ground vegetation in boreal forests was generally weak, not very extensive (DEI usually <20m) and decreased with time. We found more extensive edge influence at natural edges, at younger edges and in broadleaf forests. The comparison among regions revealed weaker edge influence in Fennoscandian forests.Synthesis. Edges created by forest harvesting do not appear to have as strong, extensive or persistent influence on vegetation in boreal as in tropical or temperate forested ecosystems. We attribute this apparent resistance to shorter canopy heights, inherent heterogeneity in boreal forests and their adaptation to frequent natural disturbance. Nevertheless, notable differences between forest structure responses to natural (fire) and anthropogenic (cut) edges raise concerns about biodiversity implications of extensive creation of anthropogenic edges. By highlighting universal responses to edge influence in boreal forests that are significant irrespective of edge or forest type, and those which vary by edge type, we provide a context for the conservation of boreal forests.

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - ). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

Species can persist in a landscape with recurrent disturbances either through local survival or by dispersing to sites of a preferred successional stage. This study investigated in what extent forest floor dwelling land snails survived forest fires and clear-cutting. Snail fauna in LFH (litter, fermenting litter and humus) samples below retained aspen trees in disturbed areas were compared with samples under scattered aspens in adjacent forests by extracting snails from LFH samples below five aspens in several stands of each type (five forest fires, six clear-cuts, and seven undisturbed forests). LFH samples from burnt sites had a higher pH than from forests, but on average a lower abundance of individual snails (11 vs. 30 in 0.5 I LFH) and 50% lower species density (3 vs. 6 species). The abundances and species densities in the clear-cuts were less affected. There was generally a positive relationship between pH and both species density and abundance in all the stand types. Burning apparently depleted the snail fauna considerably and some species may be dependent on dispersal if they are to recover within the burnt area, while the snail assemblages at clear-cuts did not differ significantly in species composition from adjacent forests. The positive relationship between pH and snail prevalence on the burnt sites raises questions regarding the pre- and post-fire spatial variation in pH (and available minerals) within and among stands and how it relates to snail survival rates and their capacity to track suitable places after the disturbance. Retained aspens at clear-cuts seem to harbour a forest like land snail fauna.

Extinction debts can result from many types of habitat changes involving mechanisms other than metapopulation processes. This is a fact that most recent literature on extinction debts pays little attention to. We argue that extinction debts can arise because (i) individuals survive in resistant life-cycle stages long after habitat quality change, (ii) stochastic extinctions of populations that have become small are not immediate, and (iii) metapopulations survive long after that connectivity has decreased if colonization-extinction dynamics is slow. A failure to distinguish between these different mechanisms and to simultaneously consider both the size of the extinction debt and the relaxation time hampers our understanding of how extinction debts arise and our ability to prevent ultimate extinctions.

Microrefugia are sites that support populations of species when their ranges contract during unfavorable climate episodes. Here, we review and discuss two aspects relevant for microrefugia. First, distributions of different species are influenced by different climatic variables. Second, climatic variables differ in the degree of local decoupling from the regional climate. Based on this, we suggest that only species limited by climatic conditions decoupled from the regional climate can benefit from microrefugia. We argue that this restriction has received little attention in spite of its importance for microrefugia as a mechanism for species resilience (the survival of unfavorable episodes and subsequent range expansion). Presence of microrefugia will depend on both the responses of individual species to local climatic variation and how climate-forcing factors shape the correlation between local and regional climate across space and time.

Questions In some fire-prone ecosystems, bryophytes play a crucial role by providing the surface fuel that controls the fire return interval. Afroalpine heathlands are such an ecosystem, yet almost nothing is known about the bryophytes in this system. We do not know the level of species richness, or if there is a successive accumulation of species over time, or if some species are adapted to specific phases along the successional gradient, for example early-successional species sensitive to competition. Location Afroalpine heathlands in Ethiopia. Methods We made an inventory of all bryophytes in 48 plots of 5 m x 5 m, distributed along a chronosequence from 1 to 25 years post fire. The heathlands are located between 3500 m and 3800 m a.s.l. and are managed by traditional pasture burning with fire intervals of 8-20 years. Results We found in total 111 taxa of bryophytes. Post-fire mortality was almost 100%. The youngest plots had only a few cosmopolitan species often found after fire. Initially, species richness increased monotonically while starting to level off around 15 years after fire, when many plots had around 30 species and a high cover of Breutelia diffracta, which is a key ground-living species, important as surface fuel. Most species were found with sporophytes, a pattern even stronger for the most frequent species. Conclusions Interestingly, bryophyte diversity is already remarkably high by only 15 years after total eradication. The relatively slow accumulation of species in the first years after fire suggests that dispersal in space, and not time, is the major mechanism by which sites regain their diversity (i.e. spore banks play a smaller role than colonization of wind-borne spores). This indicates that the high species richness is built up through colonization from surrounding heathlands, and perhaps also from higher-altitude alpine grasslands and lower-altitude forests, and that the bryophyte diversity in this system is maintained by the traditional fire and grazing management.

Conservation of biodiversity in managed forest landscapes needs to be complemented with new approaches given the threat from rapid climate change. Most frameworks for adaptation of biodiversity conservation to climate change include two major strategies. The first is the resistance strategy, which focuses on actions to increase the capacity of species and communities to resist change. The second is the transformation strategy and includes actions that ease the transformation of communities to a set of species that are well adapted to the novel environmental conditions. We suggest a number of concrete actions policy makers and managers can take. Under the resistance strategy, five tools are introduced, including: identifying and protecting forest climate refugia with cold-favored species; reducing the effects of drought by protecting the hydrological network; and actively removing competitors when they threaten cold-favored species. Under the transformation strategy, we suggest three tools, including: enhancing conditions for forest species favored by the new climate, but currently disfavored by forest management, by planting them at suitable sites outside their main range; and increasing connectivity across the landscape to enhance the expansion of warm-favored species to sites that have become suitable. Finally, we suggest applying a landscape perspective and simultaneously managing for both retreating and expanding species. The two different strategies (resistance and transformation) should be seen as complementary ways to maintain a rich biodiversity in future forest ecosystems. 

Question Species can persist in landscapes with recurring disturbances either by migrating to places suitable for the moment or by enduring the threatening conditions. We investigated to what extent boreal forest bryophytes survived an intense forest fire in situ and whether bryophytes had started to recolonize the area 7-8 years later. Location Tyresta National Park, eastern Sweden. Methods We recorded bryophytes in 14 burnt and 12 forest reference plots (50 x 50 m). In each plot we investigated 15 random 1-m2 micro-plots. In plots in the burnt area we also examined micro-plots at locations of all fire refugia, and in case of the forest references, of 10 potential refugia. Results We found on average three small refugia per 50 x 50-m plot; each containing on average 4.8 forest bryophytes, a level similar to that of micro-plots in the references, but significantly higher than in random micro-plots in the burnt plots (1.5 species). Many refugia were located in rocky areas, but few were in wet sites. The burnt area remained dominated by a few fire-favoured species, even if recolonization of forest bryophytes had begun. There was, however, no significant correlation between number of refugia and number of forest species in random micro-plots, leaving open the question of the importance of refugia as regulators of early succession. Conclusion We conclude that small-scale refugia can also occur for sensitive species such as forest bryophytes, and that the refugia in our case were frequently found on rocky or mesic rather than wet sites. The role of such refugia in recolonization, however, warrants further investigation.