The Arctic region is warming about four times faster than the rest of the globe, and thus it is important to understand the processes driving climate change in this region. Aerosols are a significant component of the Arctic climate system as they form ice crystals and liquid droplets that control the dynamics of clouds and also directly interact with solar radiation, depending on the compositions and mixing states of individual particles. Here, we report on the characteristics of submicron-sized aerosol particles using transmission electron microscopy obtained at two high Arctic sites, northeast Greenland (Villum Research Station) and Svalbard (Zeppelin Observatory), during spring 2018. The results showed that a dominant compound in the submicron-sized spring aerosols was sulfate, followed by sea salt particles. Both model simulations and observations at the Zeppelin Observatory showed that sea salt particles became more prevalent when low-pressure systems passed by the station. Model simulations indicate that both sampling sites were affected by diffused and diluted long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols from lower latitudes with negligible influences of biomass burning emissions during the observation period. Overall, the composition of measured aerosol particles from the two Arctic sites was generally similar and showed no apparent variation except for the sea salt fractions. This study shows a general picture of high Arctic aerosol particles influenced by marine sources and diffused long-range transport of anthropogenic sources during the Arctic spring period. These results will contribute to a better knowledge of the aerosol composition and mixing state during the Arctic spring, which helps to understand the contributions of aerosols to the Arctic climate.

The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) of the 21st century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The multi-model mean reveals an increase of seasonal WPD over the Arctic in the future decades. WPD variability across a range of temporal scales is projected to increase over the Arctic. The signal amplifies by the end of 21st century. Future changes in the frequency of wind speeds at 100 m not useable for wind energy production (wind speeds below 4 m/s or above 25 m/s) has been analyzed. The RCM ensemble simulates a more frequent occurrence of 100 m non-usable wind speeds for the wind-turbines over Scandinavia and selected land areas in Alaska, northern Russia and Canada. In contrast, non-usable wind speeds decrease over large parts of Eastern Siberia and in northern Alaska. Thus, our results indicate increased potential of the Arctic for the development and production of wind energy. Bias corrected and not corrected near-surface wind speed and WPD changes have been compared with each other. It has been found that both show the same sign of future change, but differ in magnitude of these changes. The role of sea-ice retreat and vegetation expansion in the Arctic in future on near-surface wind speed variability has been also assessed. Surface roughness through sea-ice and vegetation changes may significantly impact on WPD variability in the Arctic.

A sufficient supply of ecosystem services (ESs) in agriculture provides the basis for human sustainable development. Intensified large-scale farming has changed wetland ecosystems extensively by reducing both the resilience and capacity to support production of many ESs. Small-scale farming may also affect the generation of ESs where the impact often reflects the differences in farming practices. This paper explores the supply and demand of the ESs between management practices, irrigated and rainfed, of smallholder farmers in Kilombero wetland, Tanzania. We conducted interviews involving 30 households and two focus groups with five discussants for each practice, rainfed and irrigation. Generally, we found that the need for ES, especially food, water and flood control, in both farming practices, were exceeding the capacity to supply. In general, irrigation farming compared to rainfed farming was associated with higher levels of food production, increasing flood regulation and erosion control. However, the ES delivery and need were not uniform depending on the river discharge. The differences in supply and demand of ESs between farming practices suggest that society would benefit from investing in irrigation and regulatory infrastructures to minimize flooding risk and to build up the ecosystem’s natural capacity to produce services. Such practical policy-relevant measures could balance the gap between supply and demand of ESs in smallholder farming systems in Tanzanian wetland. 

Pistachio is an important economic crop in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. A major problem leading to a reduction in crop quality and reduced marketability is extreme air temperature in summer, which causes sunburn of pistachio leaves and fruit. A solution proposed to deal with the negative effects of high temperatures and increase water consumption efficiency in pistachio orchards is use of light-reflecting compounds. This study investigated the effect of foliar application of gypsum, sulfur, and NAX-95 (calcium-based suspension coating) to trees in a pistachio orchard (150 ha) in central Iran. The effect of these foliar products is assessed at plot scale, using control plots sprayed with calcium sulfate, based on temperature and evapotranspiration changes analyzed through remote sensing. Landsat 8 sensor images and RGB images collected by UAVs (spatial resolution of 30 m and 20 cm, respectively), on the same dates, before and after foliar spray application, were merged using the PCA method and bilinear interpolation re-sampling. Land surface temperature (LST) was then estimated using the split-window algorithm, and daily evapotranspiration using the surface energy balance algorithm for land (SEBAL) algorithm. A land use map was prepared and used to isolate pistachio trees in the field and assess weed cover, whose effect was not accounted. The results showed that temperature remained constant in the control plot between the spraying dates, indicating no environmental changes. In the main plots, gypsum had the greatest effect in reducing the temperature of pistachio trees. The plots with foliar spraying with gypsum displayed a mean tree temperature (47–48 °C) decrease of 3.3 °C in comparison with the control plots (>49 °C), leading to an average decline in evapotranspiration of 0.18 mm/day. NAX-95 and sulfur reduced tree temperature by on average 1.3 °C and 0.6 °C, respectively. Thus, gypsum is the most suitable foliar-spraying compound to lower the temperature of pistachio trees, reduce the water requirement, and increase crop productivity.

The partitioning of precipitation water input on land between green (evapotranspiration) and blue (runoff) water fluxes distributes the annually renewable freshwater resource among sectors and ecosystems. The patterns and main drivers of this partitioning are not fully understood around the global land area. We decipher the worldwide patterns and key determinants of this water flux partitioning and investigate its predictability based on a global machine learning model. Available data for 3,614 hydrological catchments and model application to the global land area agree in showing mostly larger green than blue water flux. Possible expansion/intensification of irrigated and/or rainfed agriculture to feed a growing human population, along with climate warming, will tend to increase this flux partitioning asymmetry, jeopardizing blue water security. The developed machine learning model presents a promising predictive tool for future blue and green water availability under various forthcoming climate and land-use change scenarios around the world.

Lakes are important sources of freshwater for human activities and provide critical ecosystem services. However, despite having approximately 100,000 lakes, Sweden has limited continuous gauged water level data. Although satellite radar altimetry has emerged as a popular alternative to measure water levels in inland water bodies, it is yet to be exploited to understand large-scale changes in inland water bodies in Sweden. Here, we quantify the changes in water levels of 144 lakes using satellite altimetry data and in-situ gauged measurements and examine the effects of flow regulation and hydroclimatic variability. Data from multiple altimetry missions, including ERS-2, ENVISAT, JASON-1,2,3, SARAL, and Sentinel-3A/B, are employed to estimate the variability and yearly and seasonal trends of water levels in two periods, 1995-2022 and 2013-2022. Our study finds that water levels significantly increased in 52% of the lakes during 1995-2022. The increasing trends primarily occurred in northern Sweden and are potentially attributed to earlier snowmelt. On the other hand, 43% of the lakes exhibited a significant decreasing trend, which was mostly concentrated in Southern Sweden. Dividing the set of lakes into regulated and unregulated groups shows how lake regulation in Sweden can partly explain the spatial patterns of water levels and their variability. This study highlights the need to continuously monitor lake water levels for adaptation strategies in the face of climate change and understand the downstream effects of water regulatory schemes.

It is essential to track lake water level fluctuations, however, the number of conventional gauging stations is declining worldwide due to impractical installation and maintenance procedures. Satellite altimetry is a substitute for traditional gauges. Nevertheless, altimetry sensors cannot identify small lakes owing to poor spatial coverage. Their application is limited to lakes falling exactly below the path of the altimeter. Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (D-InSAR) is commonly used to track land deformation and water surface changes, with the latter being comparatively limited and focused mainly on wetlands. We here explore the potential of D-InSAR to track water level changes in two Swedish lakes, focusing on the shoreline in search of potential double-bounce backscattering and analyzing pixel phase changes and coherence. We use Sentinel-1A and Sentinel-1B data from 2019, generate six-day interferograms, and exclude those when corresponding to in-situ water level changes exceeding one phase cycle. We find that D-InSAR is sensitive to minor water level changes, obtaining Lin's correlations of up to 0.63 and 0.89 (RMSE = 9 & 4 mm, respectively). These results evidence the potential of future L-band SAR missions with larger wavelengths, such as NISAR, to track water level changes in lakes and aid water tracking missions such as the SWOT.

Lakes are valuable water resources that support aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and supply fresh water for the agricultural, industrial, and urban sectors worldwide. Although water levels should be tracked to monitor these services, conventional gauging is unfeasible in most lakes. This study explores the potential, advantages, and limitations of using Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (D-InSAR) to estimate small water level changes in lakes (i.e., less than the full cycle of the SAR signal) and overall long-term direction of change. We validated the method across the shores of 30 Swedish lakes with gauged observations during 2019. We used Sentinel-1A/B images with a six-day temporal separation to construct consecutive interferograms and accumulated the phase changes in pixels of high coherence to build time series of water levels. We find that the accumulated phase change replicates the magnitude of water levels in seven lakes in Southern Sweden, where water level changes seldom exceed a complete SAR phase (i.e., 1.8 cm in the vertical direction), evident from the Concordance Correlation Coefficients (0.30 < CCC < 0.55). Furthermore, D-InSAR can estimate the long-term direction of water level change (i.e., increase or decrease) in all 30 lakes. We elaborate on the possible explanation for this last finding. The novel methodology could be used to validate future altimetry missions such as SWOT in lakes worldwide and can be improved with upcoming SAR missions with longer wavelengths.

The Anthropocene is characterized by the strengthening of planetary-scale interactions between the biophysical Earth system (ES) and human societies. This increasing social-ecological entanglement poses new challenges for studying possible future World-Earth system (WES) trajectories and World-Earth resilience defined as the capacity of the system to absorb and regenerate from anthropogenic stresses such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use changes. The WES is currently in a non-equilibrium transitional regime of the early Anthropocene with arguably no plausible possibilities of remaining in Holocene-like conditions while sheltering up to 10 billion humans without risk of undermining the resilience of the ES. We develop a framework within which to conceptualize World-Earth resilience to examine this risk. Because conventional ball-and-cup type notions of resilience are hampered by the rapid and open-ended social, cultural, economic and technological evolution of human societies, we focus on the notion of 'pathway resilience', i.e. the relative number of paths that allow the WES to move from the currently occupied transitional states towards a safe and just operating space in the Anthropocene. We formalize this conceptualization mathematically and provide a foundation to explore how interactions between ES resilience (biophysical processes) and World system (WS) resilience (social processes) impact pathway resilience. Our analysis shows the critical importance of building ES resilience to reach a safe and just operating space. We also illustrate the importance of WS dynamics by showing how perceptions of fairness coupled with regional inequality affects pathway resilience. The framework provides a starting point for the analysis of World-Earth resilience that can be extended to more complex model settings as well as the development of quantitative planetary-scale resilience indicators to guide sustainable development in a stabilized ES.

As new to the Swedish research system, one is faced with a series of questions, about what applies to qualifications, what the networks look like, but also practical issues. To make things easier, YAS has developed a guide for international researchers, to help navigate Swedish academia and remove time-consuming obstacles.

The impact of moisture transport and sources on precipitation stable isotopes (d(18)O and d-excess) in the central Himalayas are crucial to understanding the climatic archives. However, this is still unclear due to the lack of in-situ observations. Here we present measurements of stable isotopes in precipitation at two stations (Yadong and Pali) in the central Himalayas during 2014-2015. Combined with simulations from the dispersion model FLEXPART, we investigate effects on precipitation stable isotopes related to changes in moisture sources and convections in the region, and possible influence by El Nino. Our results suggest that the moisture supplies related to evaporation over northeastern India and moisture losses related to convective activities over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Bangladesh region play important roles in changes in d(18)O and d-excess in precipitation in the Yadong Valley. Outgoing longwave radiation and moisture flux divergence analysis further confirm that the contribution from continental evaporation dominates the moisture supply in the central Himalayas with a lesser contribution from convection over the BoB during the 2015 monsoon season compared with 2014. A change in the altitude effect is observed in 2015, which is more significant than the temperature and precipitation amount effect during the observation period. These findings provide valuable insights into climatic interpretations of paleo-isotopic archives with an isotopic response to changes in moisture transport to the central Himalayas.

Aquatic networks contribute greenhouse gases and lateral carbon (C) export from catchments. The magnitudes of these fluxes exceed the global land C sink but are uncertain. Resolving this uncertainty is important for understanding climate feedbacks. We quantified vertical methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from lakes and streams, and lateral export of dissolved inorganic and organic carbon from a hemiboreal catchment for 3 yr. Lateral C fluxes dominated the total aquatic C flux. All aquatic C fluxes were disproportionately contributed from spatially restricted areas and/or short-term events. Hence, consideration of local and episodic variability is vital. Temperature and runoff were the main temporal drivers for lake and stream C emissions, respectively. Whole-catchment aquatic C emissions scaled linearly with these drivers within timeframes of stable land-cover. Hence, temperature and runoff increase across Northern Hemisphere humid areas from climate change may yield proportional increases in aquatic C fluxes. 

Deep convective clouds can redistribute gaseous species and particulate matter among different layers of the troposphere with important implications for atmospheric chemistry and climate. The large number of atmospheric trace gases of different volatility makes it challenging to predict their partitioning between hydrometeors and gas phase inside highly dynamic deep convective clouds. In this study, we use an ensemble of 51,200 trajectories simulated with a cloud-resolving model to characterize up- and downdrafts within Amazonian deep convective clouds. We also estimate the transport of a set of hypothetical non-reactive gases of different volatility, within the up- and downdrafts. We find that convective air parcels originating from the boundary layer (i.e., originating at 0.5 km altitude), can transport up to 25% of an intermediate volatility gas species (e.g., methyl hydrogen peroxide) and up to 60% of high volatility gas species (e.g., n-butane) to the cloud outflow above 10 km through the mean convective updraft. At the same time, the same type of gases can be transported to the boundary layer from the middle troposphere (i.e., originating at 5 km) within the mean convective downdraft with an efficiency close to 100%. Low volatility gases (e.g., nitric acid) are not efficiently transported, neither by the updrafts nor downdrafts, if the gas is assumed to be fully retained in a droplet upon freezing. The derived properties of the mean up- and downdraft can be used in future studies for investigating convective transport of a larger set of reactive trace gases.

Mass loss at the Greenland Ice Sheet is influenced by atmospheric processes controlling its surface mass balance, and by submarine melt and calving where glaciers terminate in fjords. There, an ice mélange - a composite matrix of calved ice bergs and sea ice - may provide a buttressing force on a glacier terminus and control terminus dynamics. Kangerlussuaq Glacier is a major outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet, for which recent major retreat events in 2004/2005 and 2016-2018 coincided with the absence of an ice mélange in Kangerlussuaq Fjord. To better understand the response of Kangerlussuaq Glacier to climatic and oceanic drivers, a 2D flowline model is employed. Results indicate that an ice mélange buttressing force exerts a major control on calving frequency and rapid retreat. When an ice mélange forms in Kangerlussuaq Fjord, it provides stabilising forces and conditions favourable for winter terminus re-advance. When it fails to form during consecutive years, model results indicate that Kangerlussuaq Glacier is primed to retreat into the large overdeepenings in Kangerlussuaq Fjord, and to terminus positions more than 30 km farther inland, implying that excessive mass loss from Kangerlussuaq Glacier by the year 2065 cannot be excluded.

Plant responses to water stress influence water and carbon cycles and can lead to feedbacks on climate yet characterizing these responses at ecosystem levels remains uncertain. Quantifying ecosystem-level water use strategies is complex due to challenges of upscaling plant traits and disentangling confounding environmental factors, ultimately limiting our ability to understand and anticipate global change in ecosystem dynamics and ecohydrological fluxes. We reduce the dimensionality of this problem and quantify plant water use strategies by combining plant traits with soil and climate variables into parameter groups that synthesize key eco-physiological tradeoffs. Using a parsimonious soil water balance framework, we explore variations in plant water uptake capacity, water stress responses, and water use performance via these non-dimensional parameter groups. The group characterizing the synchronization of plant water transport and atmospheric water demand emerges as the primary axis of variation in water use strategies and interacts with the group representing plant hydraulic risk tolerance, especially in arid conditions when plant water transport is limiting. Next, we show that specific plant water use strategies maximize plant water uptake (leading to carbon gain benefits) weighted by risks of water stress (leading to higher costs of water use). A model-data comparison demonstrates that these ecohydrologically optimal parameter groups capture observed soil moisture variability in 40 ecosystems and beyond aridity, rainfall frequency is an important environmental control for plant water use strategies. The emerging parsimonious link between ecohydrological performance and non-dimensional parameters provides a tractable representation of plant water use strategies, relevant to parameterize global models while accounting for ecological and evolutionary constraints on the water cycle.

Thawing of ice-rich permafrost soils in sloped terrain can lead to activation of retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) which make organic matter available for decomposition that has been frozen for centuries to millennia. Recent studies show that the area affected by RTSs increased in the last two decades across the pan-Arctic. Combining a model of soil carbon dynamics with remotely sensed spatial details of thaw slump area and a soil carbon database, we show that RTSs in Siberia turned a previous quasi-neutral ecosystem into a strong source of carbon dioxide of 367 ± 213 gC m-1 a-1. On a global scale, recent CO₂ emissions from Siberian thaw slumps of 0.42 ± 0.22 Tg carbon per year are negligible so far. However, depending on the future evolution of permafrost thaw and hence thaw slump-affected area, such hillslope processes can transition permafrost landscapes to become a major source of additional CO₂ release into the atmosphere.

Sustainability-focused research networks and communities of practice have emerged as a key response and strategy to build capacity and knowledge to support transformation towards more sustainable, just and equitable futures. This paper synthesises insights from the development of a community of practice on social-ecological systems (SES) research in southern Africa over the past decade, linked to the international Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS). This community consists of a network of researchers who carry out place-based SES research in the southern African region. They interact through various cross-cutting working groups and also host a variety of public colloquia and student and practitioner training events. Known as the Southern African Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (SAPECS), its core objectives are to: (1) derive new approaches and empirical insights on SES dynamics in the southern African context; (2) have a tangible impact by mainstreaming knowledge into policy and practice; and (3) grow the community of practice engaged in SES research and governance, including researchers, students and practitioners. This paper reflects on experiences in building the SAPECS community, with the aim of supporting the development of similar networks elsewhere in the world, particularly in the Global South.

Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era. However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950–1250 CE) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century, in contrast to simulation experiments at regional scales. This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections. Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales. 

Vascular plants reinforce the cell walls of the different xylem cell types with lignin phenolic polymers. Distinct lignin chemistries differ between each cell wall layer and each cell type to support their specific functions. Yet the mechanisms controlling the tight spatial localization of specific lignin chemistries remain unclear. Current hypotheses focus on control by monomer biosynthesis and/or export, while cell wall polymerization is viewed as random and nonlimiting. Here, we show that combinations of multiple individual laccases (LACs) are nonredundantly and specifically required to set the lignin chemistry in different cell types and their distinct cell wall layers. We dissected the roles of Arabidopsis thaliana LAC4, 5, 10, 12, and 17 by generating quadruple and quintuple loss-of-function mutants. Loss of these LACs in different combinations led to specific changes in lignin chemistry affecting both residue ring structures and/or aliphatic tails in specific cell types and cell wall layers. Moreover, we showed that LAC-mediated lignification has distinct functions in specific cell types, waterproofing fibers, and strengthening vessels. Altogether, we propose that the spatial control of lignin chemistry depends on different combinations of LACs with nonredundant activities immobilized in specific cell types and cell wall layers.

The Arctic is a rapidly changing ecosystem, with complex ice–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. An important process is new particle formation (NPF), from gas-phase precursors, which provides a climate forcing effect. NPF has been studied comprehensively at different sites in the Arctic, ranging from those in the High Arctic and those at Svalbard to those in the continental Arctic, but no harmonised analysis has been performed on all sites simultaneously, with no calculations of key NPF parameters available for some sites. Here, we analyse the formation and growth of new particles from six long-term ground-based stations in the Arctic (Alert, Villum, Tiksi, Zeppelin Mountain, Gruvebadet, and Utqiaġvik). Our analysis of particle formation and growth rates in addition to back-trajectory analysis shows a summertime maxima in the frequency of NPF and particle formation rate at all sites, although the mean frequency and particle formation rates themselves vary greatly between sites, with the highest at Svalbard and lowest in the High Arctic. The summertime growth rate, condensational sinks, and vapour source rates show a slight bias towards the southernmost sites, with vapour source rates varying by around an order of magnitude between the northernmost and southernmost sites. Air masses back-trajectories during NPF at these northernmost sites are associated with large areas of sea ice and snow, whereas events at Svalbard are associated with more sea ice and ocean regions. Events at the southernmost sites are associated with large areas of land and sea ice. These results emphasise how understanding the geographical variation in surface type across the Arctic is key to understanding secondary aerosol sources and providing a harmonised analysis of NPF across the Arctic.

Effects of aerosols such as black carbon (BC) on climate and buildup of the monsoon over the Indian Ocean are insufficiently quantified. Uncertain contributions from various natural and anthropogenic sources impede our understanding. Here, we use observations over 5 y of BC and its isotopes at a remote island observatory in northern Indian Ocean to constrain loadings and sources during little-studied monsoon season. Carbon-14 data show a highly variable yet largely fossil (65 ± 15%) source mixture. Combining carbon-14 with carbon-13 reveals the impact of African savanna burning, which occasionally approach 50% (48 ± 9%) of the total BC loadings. The BC mass-absorption cross-section for this regime is 7.6 ± 2.6 m²/g, with higher values during savanna fire input. Taken together, the combustion sources, longevity, and optical properties of BC aerosols over summertime Indian Ocean are different than the more-studied winter aerosol, with implications for chemical transport and climate model simulations of the Indian monsoon.

Many microorganisms synthesise carbon (C)-rich compounds under resource deprivation. Such compounds likely serve as intracellular C-storage pools that sustain the activities of microorganisms growing on stoichiometrically imbalanced substrates, making them potentially vital to the function of ecosystems on infertile soils. We examined the dynamics and drivers of three putative C-storage compounds (neutral lipid fatty acids [NLFAs], polyhydroxybutyrate [PHB], and trehalose) across a natural gradient of soil fertility in eastern Australia. Together, NLFAs, PHB, and trehalose corresponded to 8.5–40% of microbial C and 0.06–0.6% of soil organic C. When scaled to “structural” microbial biomass (indexed by polar lipid fatty acids; PLFAs), NLFA and PHB allocation was 2–3-times greater in infertile soils derived from ironstone and sandstone than in comparatively fertile basalt- and shale-derived soils. PHB allocation was positively correlated with belowground biological phosphorus (P)-demand, while NLFA allocation was positively correlated with fungal PLFA : bacterial PLFA ratios. A complementary incubation revealed positive responses of respiration, storage, and fungal PLFAs to glucose, while bacterial PLFAs responded positively to PO₄^3-. By comparing these results to a model of microbial C-allocation, we reason that NLFA primarily served the “reserve” storage mode for C-limited taxa (i.e., fungi), while the variable portion of PHB likely served as “surplus” C-storage for P-limited bacteria. Thus, our findings reveal a convergence of community-level processes (i.e., changes in taxonomic composition that underpin reserve-mode storage dynamics) and intracellular mechanisms (e.g., physiological plasticity of surplus-mode storage) that drives strong, predictable community-level microbial C-storage dynamics across gradients of soil fertility and substrate stoichiometry.

Two three-dimensional reanalysis datasets of atmospheric composition, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA) and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are analyzed for the years 2003-2018 with respect to dust transport into the Arctic. The reanalyses agree on that the largest mass transport of dust into the Arctic occurs across western Russia during spring and early summer, but substantial transport events occasionally also occur across other geographical areas during all seasons. In many aspects, however, the reanalyses show considerable differences: the mass transport in MERRA-2 is substantially larger, more spread out, and occurs at higher altitudes than in CAMSRA, while the transport in CAMSRA is to a higher degree focused to well-defined events in space and time; the integrated mass transport of the 10 most intense 36-hour dust events in CAMSRA constitutes 6 % of the total integrated dust transport 2003-2018, whereas the corresponding value for MERRA-2 is only 1 %.

Furthermore, we compare the reanalyses with surface measurements of dust in the Arctic and dust extinction retrievals from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite data. This comparison indicates that CAMSRA underestimates the dust transport into the Arctic and that MERRA-2 likely overestimates it. The discrepancy between CAMSRA and MERRA-2 can partially be explained by the assimilation process where too little dust is assimilated in CAMSRA while in MERRA-2, the assimilation process increases the dust concentration in remote areas. Despite the profound differences between the reanalyses regarding dust transport into the Arctic, this study still brings new insights into the spatio-temporal distribution of the transport. We estimate the annual dust transport into the Arctic to be within the range 1.5-31 Tg, where the comparison with observations indicates that the lower end of the interval is less likely.

Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23 forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89 Blue Rings (lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings (cell deformation and collapse), and 93 Light Rings (reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and 548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.

A significant multi-centennial climate variability with a distinct peak at approximately 200 years is observed in a pre-industrial (PI) control simulation using the EC-Earth3-LR climate model. This oscillation originates predominately from the North Atlantic and displays a strong association with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our study identifies the interplay between salinity advection feedback and vertical mixing in the subpolar North Atlantic as key roles in providing the continues internal energy source to maintain this multi-centennial oscillation. The perturbation flow of mean subtropical-subpolar salinity gradients serves as positive feedback to sustain the AMOC anomaly, while the mean advection of salinity anomalies and the vertical mixing or convection acts as negative feedback, constraining the AMOC anomaly. Notably, this low-frequency variability persists even in a warmer climate with weakened AMOC, emphasizing the robustness of the salinity advection feedback mechanism.

Further long-term investments in high-quality, research-driven, fit-for-purpose observations of atmospheric composition are needed globally to meet urgent societal needs related to weather, climate, air quality, and other environmental issues. Challenges include maintaining current observing systems in the face of eroding budgets for long-term monitoring and filling the geographical gaps for key constituents needed for sound services and policies. The observing systems can be bolstered through science-for-services applications, by embracing interoperable observation systems and standardized metadata, and ensuring that the data are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. There is an urgent need to move from opportunities-driven one-component observations to more systematic, planned multifunctional infrastructure, where the observational data flow is coupled with Earth system models to serve both operational and research purposes. This approach fosters a community where user experience feeds back into the research components and where mature research results are translated into operational applications. This will lead to faster exploration and exploitation of atmospheric composition information and more impactful applications for science and society. We discuss here the urgent need to (i) achieve global coverage, (ii) harmonize infrastructure operations, (iii) establish focused policies, and (iv) strengthen coordination of atmospheric composition infrastructure.  

Analyses for organic fingerprints on fossilized plant cuticles and pollen hold valuable chemotaxonomic and palaeoclimatic information, and are thus becoming more utilized by palaeobotanists. Plant cuticle and pollen composition are generally analyzed after standard treatments with several chemical reagents for mineral and mesophyll removal. However, the potential alterations on the fossil composition caused by the different cleaning reagents used are still poorly understood. We tested the effects of commonly used palaeobotanical processing methods on the spectra of fossilized cuticles from successions of Late Triassic to Early Jurassic age, including the gymnosperms Lepidopteris , Ginkgoites , Podozamites , Ptilozamites and Pterophyllum astartense. Our study shows that standard chemical processing caused chemical alterations that might lead to erroneous interpretation of the infrared (IR) spectra. The difference in pH caused by HCl induces changes in the proportion between the two bands at similar to 1720 and 1600 cm(-1) (carboxylate and C-C stretch of aromatic compounds) indicating that the band at similar to 1610 cm(-1) at least partially corresponds to carboxylate instead of C-C stretch of aromatic compounds. Interestingly, despite being used in high concentration, HF did not cause changes in the chemical composition of the cuticles. The most alarming changes were caused by the use of Schulze's solution, which resulted in the addition of both NO2 and (O)NO2 compounds in the cuticle. Consequently, a new protocol using H2CO3 , HF, and H2O2 for preparing fossil plant cuticles aimed for chemical analyses is proposed, which provides an effective substitute to the conventional methods. In particular, a less aggressive and more sustainable alternative to Schulze's solution is shown to be hydrogen peroxide, which causes only minor alteration of the fossil cuticle's chemical composition. Future work should carefully follow protocols, having in mind the impacts of different solutions used to treat leaves and other palaeobotanical material such as palynomorphs with aims to enable the direct comparison of spectra obtained in different studies.

Over the Southern Ocean (SO, 40°S–70°S), climate models have consistently underestimated solar reflection. Here we evaluate the relationship between cloud profiles, cloud phase and radiation over the SO in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models against Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations. We find that the lack of solar reflection is slightly improved in CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5's, attributable to a better representation of cloud fraction and phase. We show that clouds have a different vertical structure and radiative effect south and north of where the 0°C isotherm meets the surface (∼55°S). Although the models capture the greater vertical extent of clouds south of 55°S, they fail to reproduce the observed increase in solar reflection, which we pinpoint to cloud phase biases. Increasing CMIP6 supercooled liquid cloud opacity should help reduce their persistent shortwave biases.

Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO₂-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern Indian Ocean unveiled a ~7% increase in the earth’s surface-reaching solar radiation (surface brightening). Aerosol-induced atmospheric solar heating decreased by ~0.4 K d⁻¹. Our results reveal that under clear sky conditions, anthropogenic emissions over South Asia lead to nearly 1.4 W m⁻² heating at the top of the atmosphere during the period March–May. A complete phase-out of today’s fossil fuel combustion to zero-emission renewables would result in rapid aerosol demasking, while the GHGs linger on.

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is a major regional and global emitter of atmospheric pollutants, which adversely affect surrounding areas such as the Himalayas. We present a comprehensive dataset on carbonaceous aerosol (CA) composition, radiocarbon (Δ¹⁴C) -based source apportionment, and light absorption of total suspended particle (TSP) samples collected over a 3-year period from high-altitude Jomsom in the central Himalayas. The 3-year mean TSP, organic carbon (OC), and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations were 92.0 ± 28.6, 9.74 ± 6.31, and 2.02 ± 1.35 μg m⁻³, respectively, with the highest concentrations observed during the pre-monsoon season, followed by the post-monsoon, winter, and monsoon seasons. The Δ¹⁴C analysis revealed that the contribution of fossil fuel combustion (f_fossil) to EC was 47.9% ± 11.5%, which is consistent with observations in urban and remote regions in South Asia and attests that EC likely arrives in Jomsom from upwind IGP sources via long-range transport. In addition, the lowest f_fossil (38.7% ± 13.3%) was observed in winter, indicating large contributions in this season from local biomass burning. The mass absorption cross-section of EC (MAC_EC: 8.27 ± 1.76 m²/g) and water-soluble organic carbon (MAC_WSOC: 0.98 ± 0.45 m²/g) were slightly higher and lower than those reported in urban regions, respectively, indicating that CA undergo an aging process. Organic aerosol coating during transport and variation of biomass burning probably led to the seasonal variation in MAC of two components. Overall, WSOC contributed considerably to the light absorption (11.1% ± 4.23%) of EC. The findings suggest that to protect glaciers of the Himalayas from pollution-related melting, it is essential to mitigate emissions from the IGP.

We investigate the uncertainty (i.e., inter-model spread) in future projections of the boreal winter climate, based on the forced response of ten models from the CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty in the forced response of sea level pressure (SLP) is large in the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the Arctic. A major part of these uncertainties (31%) is marked by a pattern with a center in the northeastern Pacific and a dipole over the northeastern Atlantic that we label as the Pacific–Atlantic SLP uncertainty pattern (PA_∆SLP). The PA_∆SLP is associated with distinct global sea surface temperature (SST) and Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) perturbation patterns. To better understand the nature of the PA_∆SLP, these SST and SIC perturbation patterns are prescribed in experiments with two atmospheric models (AGCMs): CAM4 and IFS. The AGCM responses suggest that the SST uncertainty contributes to the North Pacific SLP uncertainty in CMIP5 models, through tropical–midlatitude interactions and a forced Rossby wavetrain. The North Atlantic SLP uncertainty in CMIP5 models is better explained by the combined effect of SST and SIC uncertainties, partly related to a Rossby wavetrain from the Pacific and air-sea interaction over the North Atlantic. Major discrepancies between the CMIP5 and AGCM forced responses over northern high-latitudes and continental regions are indicative of uncertainties arising from the AGCMs. We analyze the possible dynamic mechanisms of these responses, and discuss the limitations of this work.

Collections of large ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) downscaled climate data for particular regions and scenarios can be organized in a usually incomplete matrix consisting of GCM (global climate model) x RCM combinations. When simple ensemble averages are calculated, each GCM will effectively be weighted by the number of times it has been downscaled. In order to facilitate more equal and less arbitrary weighting among downscaled GCM results, we present a method to emulate the missing combinations in such a matrix, enabling equal weighting among participating GCMs and hence among regional consequences of large-scale climate change simulated by each GCM. This method is based on a traditional Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approach. The method is applied and studied for fields of seasonal average temperature, precipitation and surface wind and for the 10-year return value of daily precipitation and of 10-m wind speed for a completely filled matrix consisting of 5 GCMs and 4 RCMs. We quantify the skill of the two averaging methods for different numbers of missing simulations and show that ensembles where lacking members have been emulated by the ANOVA technique are better at representing the full ensemble than corresponding simple ensemble averages, particularly in cases where only a few model combinations are absent. The technique breaks down when the number of missing simulations reaches the sum of the numbers of GCMs and RCMs. Also, the method is only useful when inter-simulation variability is limited. This is the case for the average fields that have been studied, but not for the extremes. We have developed analytical expressions for the degree of improvement obtained with the present method, which quantify this conclusion. 

Questions: Near-ground temperatures can vary substantially over relatively short distances, enabling species with different temperature preferences and geographical distributions to co-exist within a small area. In a forest landscape, the near-ground temperatures may change due to management activities that alter forest density. As a result of such management activities, current species distributions and performances might not only be affected by current microclimates, but also by past conditions due to time-lagged responses.

Location: Sweden.

Methods: We examined the effects of past and current microclimates on the distributions and performances of two northern, cold-favoured, and two southern, warm-favoured, plant species in 53 managed forest sites. Each pair was represented by one vascular plant and one bryophyte species. We used temperature logger data and predictions from microclimate models based on changes in basal area to relate patterns of occurrence, abundance, and reproduction to current and past microclimate.

Results: The two northern species were generally favoured by microclimates that were currently cold, characterised by later snowmelt and low accumulated heat over the growing season. In contrast, the two southern species were generally favoured by currently warm microclimates, characterised by high accumulated heat over the growing season. Species generally had higher abundance in sites with a preferred microclimate both in the past and present, and lower abundance than expected from current conditions, if the past microclimate had changed from warm to cold or vice versa, indicating time-lags in abundance patterns of the species.

Conclusions: Our results show a potential importance of past and present microclimate heterogeneity for the co-existence of species with different temperature preferences in the same landscape and highlight the possibility to manage microclimates to mitigate climate change impacts on forest biodiversity.

Climate change drives a northward shift of biomes in high-latitude regions. This might have consequences on the decomposition of plant litter entering the soil, including its lignin component, which is one of the most abundant components of vascular plants. In order to elucidate the combined effect of climate and soil characteristics on the decomposition pattern of lignin, we investigated lignin contents and its degree of oxidative decomposition within soil profiles along a climosequence in western Siberia. Soil samples were collected from organic topsoil to mineral subsoil at six sites along a 1500-km latitudinal transect, stretching from tundra, through taiga and forest steppe to typical steppe. The stage of lignin degradation, as mirrored by decreasing organic carbon-normalized lignin contents and increasing oxidative alteration of the remnant lignin (acid-to-aldehyde ratios of vanillyl- and syringyl-units [(Ac/Al)V and (Ac/Al)S]) within soil horizons, increased from tundra to forest steppe and then decreased to the steppe. Principal component analysis, involving also climatic conditions such as mean annual temperature and aridity index, showed that the different states of lignin degradation between horizons related well to the activity of phenoloxidases and peroxidases, enzymes involved in lignin depolymerization that are produced primarily by fungi and less importantly by bacteria. The low microbial lignin decomposition in the tundra was likely due to low temperature and high soil moisture, which do not favour the fungi. Increasing temperature and decreasing soil moisture, facilitating a higher abundance of fungi, led to increased fungal lignin decomposition towards the forest-steppe biome, while drought and high pH might be responsible for the reduced lignin decomposition in the steppe. We infer that a shift of biomes to the north, driven by climate change, might promote lignin decomposition in the northern parts, whereas in the south a further retardation might be likely.

The small mammals Myomiminae indet. (Gliridae), Leptodontomys cf. gansus Zheng and Li, 1982 (Eomyidae) and the new species Keramidomys sibiricus nov. spec. (Eomyidae) are described. They were collected from six layers of the middle to upper part of the Tagay-1 section on Olkhon Island. The glirid Myomiminae indet. is represented by only a few isolated teeth, the small eomyid Leptodontomys cf. gansus by a mandible with two teeth, and the second small eomyid Keramidomys sibiricus nov. spec. by several isolated teeth and a mandible. The ancestral tooth characteristics of Keramidomys sibiricus nov. spec. indicate an early evolutionary stage of Keramidomys in Asia. The suggested age of the assemblage is Early/Middle Miocene transition.

Excavations along the Tagay-1 section shed light into the composition of small mammal assemblages of the Tagay site. The present paper focuses on the geology and geomorphology of Olkhon Island, the lithology and fossil evidence along the Tagay-1 section and descriptions of the aplodontid, mylagaulid and sciurid rodents. The described fossils are isolated teeth of four taxa, Ansomys sp. (Aplodontidae), Lamugaulus olkhonensis Tesakov and Lopatin, 2015 (Mylagaulidae), Sciuridae indet. and Spermophilinus debruijni nov. spec. (Sciuridae). The archaic tooth pattern of these rodents suggests an age around the Early/Middle Miocene transition.

We report about the Early Miocene Tagay fauna of Olkhon Island, the largest island of the Baikal Lake. The Tagay fauna is of high scientific importance because of the diversity of fishes, amphibians, lizards, snakes, turtles, manifold birds and mammals. The lithology, geochemistry and the fossil record along the Tagay-1 section allow reconstruction of various palaeoenvironments, i.e. open water, shallow lakes with adjacent wetlands, riverine woodlands, and also forested and dry habitats. The fossil record, lithology and geochemical sediment-analyses suggest a temperate palaeoclimate with short humid and dry periods. The small mammal record and the magnetic polarity pattern of the upper part of section Tagay-1 correlate with the subchrons C5Cn.2r – C5Cn.1r of Chron C5C and the late Burdigalian Stage of the Geologic Time Scale (GTS2000). The corresponding age range of the Tagay fauna is ~16.5 to ~16.3 Ma. 

The collection of fossil Rodentia from the Miocene Tagay fauna comprises Aplodontidae, Mylagaulidae, Sciuridae, Gliridae, Castoridae, Eomyidae and Cricetodontinae. Represented by three taxa the Cricetodontinae dominate the rodent assemblage of the Tagay fauna. The fossils were collected by wet-screening of test samples along the section Tagay-1 at Tagay Bay of Olkhon Island. Here, we report on the medium-sized Democricetodon cf. lindsayi, the very small Democricetodon sp. and the large Gobicricetodon filippovi. The primitive dental pattern of D. cf. lindsayi and G. filippovi suggest archaic members of the genera, and an age around the Early/Middle Miocene transition.

The urban heat island (UHI) causes strong warming of cities and their urban forests worldwide. Especially urban forest edges are strongly exposed to the UHI effect, which could impact urban forest biodiversity and functioning. However, it is not known to what extent the UHI effect alters edge-to-interior microclimatic gradients within urban forests and whether this depends on the forests' structure.Here we quantified gradients of air temperature, relative air humidity and vapour pressure deficits (VPD) along urban forest edge-to-interior transects with contrasting stand structures in six major cities across Europe. We performed continuous hourly microclimate measurements for two consecutive years and analysed the magnitude and depth of edge effects, as well as forest structural drivers of microclimatic variation.Compared to edge studies in rural temperate forests, we found that edge effects reached deeper into urban forests, at least up to 50 m. Throughout the year, urban forest edges were warmer and drier compared to forest interiors, with the largest differences occurring during summer and daytime. Not only maximum, but also mean and minimum temperatures were higher at the urban forest edge up to large edge distances (at least 85 m). Denser forests with a higher plant area index buffered high air temperatures and VPDs from spring to autumn.We conclude that urban forest edges are unique ecotones with specific microclimates shaped by the UHI effect. Both forest edges and interiors showed increased buffering capacities with higher forest canopy density. We advocate for the conservation and expansion of urban forests which can buffer increasingly frequent and intense climate extremes. To this end, urban forest managers are encouraged to aim for multi-layered dense forest canopies and consider edge buffer zones of at least 50 m wide.

The main energy input to the polar regions in winter is the advection of warm, moist air from lower lati-tudes. This makes the polar climate sensitive to the temperature and moisture of extrapolar air. Here, we study this sensi-tivity from an air-mass transformation perspective. We perform simulations of an idealized maritime air mass brought into contact with sea ice employing a three-dimensional large-eddy simulation model coupled to a one-dimensional multilayer sea ice model. We study the response of cloud dynamics and surface warming during the air-mass transformation process to varying initial temperature and humidity conditions of the air mass. We find in all cases that a mixed-phase cloud is formed, initially near the surface but rising continuously with time. Surface warming of the sea ice is driven by downward longwave surface fluxes, which are largely controlled by the temperature and optical depth of the cloud. Cloud tempera-ture, in turn, is robustly constrained by the initial dewpoint temperature of the air mass. Since dewpoint only depends on moisture, the overall result is that surface warming depends almost exclusively on initial humidity and is largely indepen-dent of initial temperature. We discuss possible climate implications of this result-in particular, for polar amplification of surface warming and the role played by atmospheric energy transports.

Hydrological disasters, such as floods, can have dire consequences for human societies. Historical information plays a key role in detecting whether particular types of hydrological disasters have increased in frequency and/or magnitude and, if so, they are more likely attributable to natural or human-induced climatic and other environmental changes. The identification of regions with similar flood conditions is essential for the analysis of regional flooding regimes. To this end, we here present the longest existing flood reconstruction for the Eastern Liguria Area (ELA) in northwestern Italy, covering 1582 to 2022 CE, which offers a case study representative of the central Mediterranean region. An Annual Flood Intensification Index was developed to transform the historical data into a continuous annual hydrological time-series contained by a homogeneous data structure for the study-area. We found two change-points (trend breaks) in the reconstructed time-series, in 1787 and 1967, with only occasional heavy floods comparable to present-day disasters occurring before the first change-point, and an increasing intensification of floods after the second change-point up to the present day. The recent intensification of flooding in the ELA, associated with changes in land use and land cover, also appears to coincide with phases in which hydrological hazards have become more changeable and extreme in disaster-affected areas. This is evidenced by river basin responses to human-induced disturbances.

Annual mean spring discharge (ASD) is an important water supply source, essential for ecological systems and societies dependent on groundwater resources. Influenced by both regional and local climate fluctuations, the inter-annual variability of ASD represents a climate memory signal, significantly affected when the drought pattern manifests itself in changing climatic regimes. Gaining a better historical perspective on ASD changes requires extended time-series of discharge data and relevant climate drivers. Here, using a parsimonious model, we present a continuous (modelled) time-series of annual ASD for the karst spring of Caposele, in the Cervialto Massif of southern Italy, which is hitherto the longest (1601–2020 CE) such time-series for the entire Mediterranean region. The model was designed to capture the importance of large-scale seasonal (spring, autumn and winter) precipitation (hydro-meteorological factor), and flood and drought indices (climatological factor), and to be consistent with a sample (1920–2020 CE) of actual data. We show a limited overall sensitivity of ASD to climate variability, with a mean of 4.21 m³ s⁻¹ and a drop from ∼1759 CE. With a mean value of ∼3.60 m³ s⁻¹ after ∼1987 CE, ASD has revealed a substantial descending trend—possibly a fingerprint of recent warming—with a depletion of regional water reservoirs. These results highlight the need to strengthen the capacity of groundwater resources in the face of changing, and possibly enhanced, drought patterns in the Mediterranean region.

Phenotypic plasticity might increase fitness if the conditions under which it evolved remain unaltered, but becomes maladaptive if the environment no longer provides reliable cues for subsequent conditions. In seasonal environments, timing of reproduction can respond plastically to spring temperature, maximizing the benefits of a long season while minimizing the exposure to unfavorable cold temperatures. However, if the relationship between early spring temperatures and later conditions changes, the optimal response might change. In geothermally heated ecosystems, the plastic response of flowering time to springtime soil temperature that has evolved in unheated areas is likely to be non-optimal, because soil temperatures are higher and decoupled from air temperatures in heated areas. We therefore expect natural selection to favor a lower plasticity and a delayed flowering in these areas. Using observational data along a natural geothermal warming gradient, we tested the hypothesis that selection on flowering time depends on soil temperature and favors later flowering on warmer soils in the perennial Cerastium fontanum. In both study years, plants growing in warmer soils began flowering earlier than plants growing in colder soils, suggesting that first flowering date (FFD) responds plastically to soil temperature. In one of the two study years, selection favored earlier flowering in colder soils but later flowering in warmer soils, suggesting that the current level of plastic advance of FFD on warmer soils may be maladaptive in some years. Our results illustrate the advantages of using natural experiments, such as geothermal ecosystems, to examine selection in environments that recently have undergone major changes. Such knowledge is essential to understand and predict both ecological and evolutionary responses to climate warming. 

New excavations in the Tagay locality have revealed the presence of Amphilagus plicadentis Erbajeva, 2013, which belongs to the palaeolagine Lagomorpha rather than leporids, previously referred to Procaprolagus sp. (Logachev et al., 1964). Herein, we report a comprehensive morphological description of this species and compare it with the other known species of the genus Amphilagus. The Tagay lagomorph is conspecific with the Early Miocene species Amphilagus plicadentis found at locality Unkheltseg (UNCH-A) (biozone D; Early Miocene) in the Valley of Lakes, Central Mongolia. The Tagay specimens suggest a more advanced evolutionary stage of A. plicadentis and an age around Early/Middle Miocene transition.

Light-absorbing Brown Carbon (BrC) aerosols partially offset the overall climate-cooling of aerosols. However, the evolution of BrC light-absorption during atmospheric transport is poorly constrained. Here, we utilize optical properties, ageing-diagnostic delta C-13-BrC and transport time to deduce that the mass absorption cross-section (MACWS-BrC) is decreasing by similar to 50% during long-range oversea transport, resulting in a first-order bleaching rate of 0.24 day(-1) during the 3-day transit from continental East Asia to a south-east Yellow Sea receptor. A modern C-14 signal points to a strong inverse correlation between BrC light-absorption and age of the source material. Combining this with results for South Asia reveals a striking agreement between these two major-emission regions of rapid photobleaching of BrC with a higher intrinsic absorptivity for BrC stemming from biomass burning. The consistency of bleaching parameters constrained independently for the outflows of both East and South Asia indicates that the weakening of BrC light absorption, thus primarily related to photochemical processes rather than sources, is likely a ubiquitous phenomenon.

Hurricanes—and more broadly tropical cyclones—are high-impact weather phenomena whose adverse socio-economic and ecosystem impacts affect a considerable part of the global population. Despite our reasonably robust meteorological understanding of tropical cyclones, we still face outstanding challenges for their numerical simulations. Consequently, future changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of tropical cyclones are still debated. Here, we diagnose possible reasons for the poor representation of tropical cyclones in numerical models, by considering the cyclones as chaotic dynamical systems. We follow 197 tropical cyclones which occurred between 2010 and 2020 in the North Atlantic using the HURDAT2 and ERA5 data sets. We measure the cyclones instantaneous number of active degrees of freedom (local dimension) and the persistence of their sea-level pressure and potential vorticity fields. During the most intense phases of the cyclones, and specifically when cyclones reach hurricane strength, there is a collapse of degrees of freedom and an increase in persistence. The large dependence of hurricanes dynamical characteristics on intensity suggests the need for adaptive parametrization schemes which take into account the dependence of the cyclone’s phase, in analogy with high-dissipation intermittent events in turbulent flows.

Although the life-cycle of tropical cyclones is relatively well understood, many of the underlying physical processes occur at scales below those resolved by global climate models (GCMs). Projecting future changes in tropical cyclone characteristics thus remains challenging. We propose a methodology, based on dynamical system metrics, to reconstruct the statistics of cyclone intensities in coarse-resolution datasets, where maximum wind speed and minimum sea-level pressure may not be accurately represented. We base our analysis on 411 tropical cyclones occurring between 2010 and 2020, using both ERA5 reanalysis data and observations from the HURDAT2 database, as well as a control simulation of the IPSL-CM6A-ATM-ICO-HR model. For both ERA5 and model data, we compute two dynamical system metrics related to the number of degrees of freedom of the atmospheric flow and to the coupling between different atmospheric variables, namely the local dimension and the co-recurrence ratio. We then use HURDAT2 data to develop three bias-correction approaches for SLP minima: a univariate, unconditional  quantile–quantile bias correction, a quantile–quantile bias correction conditioned on the two dynamical systems metrics, and a multivariate correction method. The conditional approach generally outperforms the unconditional approach for ERA5, pointing to the usefulness of the dynamical systems metrics in this context. We then show that the multivariate approach can be used to recover a realistic distribution of cyclone intensities from comparatively coarse-resolution model data.